Last Update03 Oct 25Fair value Increased 8.96%
Analysts have raised their fair value price target for Bitdeer Technologies Group by approximately $2. They cite the company's strong Q2 revenue performance and expectations for a significant increase in self-mining capacity over the coming quarters.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from Street Research highlight both optimistic and cautious views regarding Bitdeer Technologies Group’s outlook following its latest earnings report.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts raised their fair value estimates, reflecting increased confidence in the company’s revenue growth trajectory.
- The strong Q2 performance is viewed as an inflection point and supports Bitdeer’s claim of robust operational momentum.
- Guidance indicating that self-mining capacity will reach 40 EH/s by October 2025 underpins expectations for accelerated expansion in the company’s core business.
- Analysts anticipate a significant ramp-up in sales as Bitdeer executes on its capacity rollout plans, which could enhance prospects for long-term earnings growth.
Bearish Takeaways
- Despite positive revenue results, some bearish analysts have modestly trimmed price targets, signaling ongoing caution about sector dynamics.
- Revised estimates in the high performance computing industry reflect variable demand and market volatility, which could put pressure on valuation multiples.
- Questions remain about Bitdeer’s ability to fully deliver on ambitious self-mining targets within established timelines, highlighting execution risk.
What's in the News
- Launched the SEALMINER A3 series of self-developed Bitcoin mining machines, featuring both air-cooling and hydro-cooling models. The A3 Pro Hydro delivers a hashrate of 660 TH/s and improved energy efficiency (Product-Related Announcements).
- Reported a 33% month-over-month increase in self-mined Bitcoin in August 2025, reaching 375 Bitcoins. This increase was driven by the energization of SEALMINERs (Announcement of Operating Results).
- Achieved a 39% increase in self-mined Bitcoin for June 2025 compared to the previous month, illustrating strong growth in self-mining activities (Announcement of Operating Results).
- Continued to enhance transparency and efficiency within the mining industry through ongoing research and development as well as technological innovation (Product-Related Announcements).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen by approximately $2, moving from $22.33 to $24.33.
- Discount Rate has decreased slightly from 8.51% to 8.46%.
- Revenue Growth projection is largely unchanged and remains around 71%.
- Net Profit Margin has fallen modestly, declining from 19.09% to 18.35%.
- Future P/E ratio has increased from 19.85x to 24.56x. This indicates a higher valuation multiple for projected earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Proprietary technology and vertical integration aim to reduce costs, drive revenue growth, and improve operational efficiency in the ASIC and Bitcoin mining markets.
- Expanding self-mining capacity and commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs are expected to boost Bitcoin output and diversify revenue streams.
- Bitdeer's revenue and margin challenges, paired with high R&D costs and capital expenditures, suggest financial pressures and potential volatility in earnings.
Catalysts
About Bitdeer Technologies Group- Operates as a technology company for blockchain and computing.
- Bitdeer's development of proprietary ASIC technology is expected to create cost advantages and open opportunities in selling machines to penetrate the $4 billion to $5 billion annual ASIC market, which could drive significant revenue and margin improvements.
- The acquisition and planned development of a 101-megawatt gas-fired power plant in Alberta aim to provide a low-cost, vertically integrated power source for Bitcoin mining and potential revenue from selling excess power, improving operational efficiency and lowering production costs, which should enhance net margins.
- Bitdeer's strategic focus on vertical integration, including developing internal technologies and capabilities, aims to maximize long-term shareholder value by reducing operating costs and improving margins, thus positively impacting earnings.
- The planned commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs, coupled with a high demand for energy-efficient mining machines, represents a diversification of revenue streams and is likely to enhance revenue growth as Bitdeer becomes a key player in the ASIC market.
- The planned ramp-up to 40 exahash in self-mining capacity by Q4 2025, leveraging newly developed ASICs and expanded power capacity, is expected to significantly increase Bitcoin production, thereby driving revenue and potentially improving margins due to economies of scale.
Bitdeer Technologies Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Bitdeer Technologies Group's revenue will grow by 71.6% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -89.8% today to 19.1% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $343.9 million (and earnings per share of $-0.23) by about September 2028, up from $-320.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-52.7 million.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -8.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Bitdeer Technologies Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Bitdeer's Q4 2024 revenue decreased significantly to $69 million from $114.8 million in Q4 2023, driven by reduced cloud hashrate and hosting revenue, potentially impacting future revenue growth.
- The company reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 million for Q4 2024, reflecting inefficiencies and increased R&D costs that could challenge future net margins.
- Bitdeer experienced a significant IFRS net loss of $531.9 million due to noncash derivative losses, signaling potential volatility in future earnings due to financial instrument valuation changes.
- High operating expenses, especially elevated R&D costs related to ASIC development and noncash amortization, could compress net margins if not matched by future revenue growth from ASIC sales or efficient operational execution.
- The reliance on significant capital expenditures, such as the funding of a $90 million gas plant in Alberta, could strain liquidity if anticipated cash flows from new mining operations or ASIC sales do not materialize as expected, impacting earnings stability.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.873 for Bitdeer Technologies Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $343.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
- Given the current share price of $13.26, the analyst price target of $21.87 is 39.4% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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