Last Update 01 Nov 25
Fair value Increased 16%Analysts have raised their fair value price target for Bitdeer Technologies Group from $28.05 to $32.68. They cite improved revenue growth forecasts, stronger profit margins, and sector tailwinds from increasing AI infrastructure demand.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research highlights both optimism and caution in analyst perspectives regarding Bitdeer Technologies Group's outlook. Their views focus on the rapidly evolving dynamics of the AI infrastructure and data center sectors, as well as Bitdeer's operational execution and growth trajectory.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts believe the entire sector stands to benefit from major investments in AI infrastructure. The recent acquisition of Aligned Data Centers validates the growing demand for data center power and capacity.
- Those with extensive power portfolios and existing data center agreements, including Bitdeer, are viewed as well-positioned to capitalize on the scarcity of power and resources as AI expansion accelerates.
- The company’s continued progress toward increasing self-mining capacity, with targets to reach 40 EH/s, is seen as a key factor supporting their revenue growth and valuation upside.
- Strong recent financial performance, notably a significant revenue beat in the latest quarter, bolsters confidence in Bitdeer's ability to achieve ambitious 2025 guidance and sustain long-term growth.
- Bearish analysts note that competition from peers with larger existing power portfolios and well-established data center operations could limit relative outperformance and pose execution challenges for Bitdeer.
- There is concern around ongoing supply chain constraints for power, land, and construction materials. These factors could impede the buildout of new data center capacity and impact growth timelines.
- Valuation re-ratings across the sector may be uneven. Companies still seeking deals or lacking scale could face greater volatility if industry tailwinds subside or execution lags expectations.
What's in the News
- Bitdeer reported mining 452 Bitcoins in September 2025, reflecting a 20.5% increase from August. This was due to a higher self-mining hashrate from SEALMINER energization (Announcement of Operating Results).
- The company launched the SEALMINER A3 series of proprietary Bitcoin mining rigs, featuring both air-cooling and hydro-cooling models. The A3 Pro Hydro achieved a hashrate of 660 TH/s and a power efficiency of 12.5 J/TH, setting a new benchmark (Product-Related Announcements).
- In August 2025, Bitdeer reported 375 Bitcoins mined, marking a 33% rise from July. This increase was attributed to a higher self-mining hashrate as new SEALMINERs came online (Announcement of Operating Results).
- For June 2025, the company mined 282 Bitcoins, a 39% improvement as SEALMINER energization continued to drive performance gains (Announcement of Operating Results).
Valuation Changes
- The consensus analyst price target has increased from $28.05 to $32.68, reflecting upgraded expectations for the company's share value.
- The discount rate edged up marginally from 8.28% to 8.30%, suggesting a slightly higher perceived risk in future cash flows.
- Revenue growth projections have risen significantly, moving from 74.08% to 93.08% as analysts anticipate accelerated expansion.
- Net profit margin forecasts improved modestly, from 10.70% to 11.35%, indicating expected gains in operational efficiency.
- The future P/E ratio has fallen from 45.77x to 36.90x, implying stronger earnings growth relative to current valuation multiples.
Key Takeaways
- Proprietary technology and vertical integration aim to reduce costs, drive revenue growth, and improve operational efficiency in the ASIC and Bitcoin mining markets.
- Expanding self-mining capacity and commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs are expected to boost Bitcoin output and diversify revenue streams.
- Bitdeer's revenue and margin challenges, paired with high R&D costs and capital expenditures, suggest financial pressures and potential volatility in earnings.
Catalysts
About Bitdeer Technologies Group- Operates as a technology company for blockchain and computing.
- Bitdeer's development of proprietary ASIC technology is expected to create cost advantages and open opportunities in selling machines to penetrate the $4 billion to $5 billion annual ASIC market, which could drive significant revenue and margin improvements.
- The acquisition and planned development of a 101-megawatt gas-fired power plant in Alberta aim to provide a low-cost, vertically integrated power source for Bitcoin mining and potential revenue from selling excess power, improving operational efficiency and lowering production costs, which should enhance net margins.
- Bitdeer's strategic focus on vertical integration, including developing internal technologies and capabilities, aims to maximize long-term shareholder value by reducing operating costs and improving margins, thus positively impacting earnings.
- The planned commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs, coupled with a high demand for energy-efficient mining machines, represents a diversification of revenue streams and is likely to enhance revenue growth as Bitdeer becomes a key player in the ASIC market.
- The planned ramp-up to 40 exahash in self-mining capacity by Q4 2025, leveraging newly developed ASICs and expanded power capacity, is expected to significantly increase Bitcoin production, thereby driving revenue and potentially improving margins due to economies of scale.
Bitdeer Technologies Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Bitdeer Technologies Group's revenue will grow by 71.6% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -89.8% today to 19.1% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $343.9 million (and earnings per share of $-0.23) by about September 2028, up from $-320.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-52.7 million.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -8.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Bitdeer Technologies Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Bitdeer's Q4 2024 revenue decreased significantly to $69 million from $114.8 million in Q4 2023, driven by reduced cloud hashrate and hosting revenue, potentially impacting future revenue growth.
- The company reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 million for Q4 2024, reflecting inefficiencies and increased R&D costs that could challenge future net margins.
- Bitdeer experienced a significant IFRS net loss of $531.9 million due to noncash derivative losses, signaling potential volatility in future earnings due to financial instrument valuation changes.
- High operating expenses, especially elevated R&D costs related to ASIC development and noncash amortization, could compress net margins if not matched by future revenue growth from ASIC sales or efficient operational execution.
- The reliance on significant capital expenditures, such as the funding of a $90 million gas plant in Alberta, could strain liquidity if anticipated cash flows from new mining operations or ASIC sales do not materialize as expected, impacting earnings stability.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.873 for Bitdeer Technologies Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $343.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
- Given the current share price of $13.26, the analyst price target of $21.87 is 39.4% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Read more narratives
There are no other narratives for this company.
View all narratives