Last Update 10 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.20%

BBIO: Late Stage Pipeline Progress Will Drive Confidence Into 2026 And Beyond

Analysts nudged their average price target for BridgeBio Pharma up by about $1 to roughly $84.65 per share, citing stronger than expected Attruby revenue traction, rising conviction in BBP-418 and encaleret Phase 3 success, and greater visibility on multiple late stage catalysts into 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts are largely aligned on a constructive outlook for BridgeBio, emphasizing upside to current revenue forecasts, increasing confidence in late stage programs, and a clearer path to market for several key assets. The recent wave of price target increases reflects both stronger than expected commercial execution and improving clinical visibility into 2026 and beyond.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see room for upside to 2026 Attruby revenue estimates, pointing to the recent performance as evidence that Street models may be conservative and that long term growth and valuation could be underappreciated.
Recent positive interim data for BBP-418 are viewed as de risking the program, with improvements in muscle damage and functional outcomes prompting expectations for a faster path to market and a potential commercial opportunity above prior $1B guidance.
Confidence in encaleret has increased following positive Phase 3 results, with probability of approval assumptions being raised and timelines for a 2026 filing and late 2026 or early 2027 launch factored into higher peak sales and valuation models.
Analysts highlighting achondroplasia and autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 see these late stage assets as underappreciated contributors to the pipeline, arguing that successful readouts could meaningfully expand BridgeBio's medium term growth profile and justify further multiple expansion.

Bearish Takeaways

More cautious analysts flag potential adherence headwinds for Attruby over time, noting that some patients may discontinue therapy if perceived benefit is not immediate, which could pressure long term revenue durability relative to the more optimistic scenarios.
There is concern that, after a strong share price move, expectations for upcoming catalysts may have become elevated, increasing execution risk and leaving less room for disappointment without impacting valuation.
While probabilities of success for Phase 3 programs are trending higher, bears stress that any delay in regulatory timelines or weaker than expected data from infigratinib or encaleret could cap near term upside and force downward revisions to price targets.
Uncertainty around competitive dynamics and payer response in newly targeted indications is cited as a risk to margin expansion and commercialization efficiency, potentially limiting how much of the modeled peak sales ultimately translate into sustainable earnings growth.

What's in the News

H.C. Wainwright raised its BridgeBio price target to $90 from $80 after positive Phase 3 encaleret data in autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 and now assigns a 90% probability of approval, with an anticipated FDA submission in the first half of 2026 and a potential launch in late 2026 or early 2027 (H.C. Wainwright research note).
BridgeBio reported positive topline Phase 3 FORTIFY results for BBP-418 in LGMD2I/R9, showing highly statistically significant and durable increases in glycosylated alpha dystroglycan, large reductions in creatine kinase, and clinically meaningful gains in ambulatory and pulmonary function, with plans for a BBP-418 NDA submission in the first half of 2026 (company announcement).
New ATTRibute CM data in JAMA Cardiology and at AHA 2025 showed acoramidis significantly reduced all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization through Month 42 in variant ATTR CM, including a 69% reduction in ACM or first CVH in the high-risk V142I subpopulation, which the company stated reinforces the long-term benefit profile of Attruby (company announcement, JAMA Cardiology).
BridgeBio outlined its regulatory and development roadmap for encaleret, targeting an NDA submission in the first half of 2026, an EMA filing thereafter, and registrational trials in pediatric ADH1 and adult chronic hypoparathyroidism starting in 2026, building on positive Phase 3 topline results and global orphan and fast track designations (company announcement).
Additional ATTRibute CM presentations at HFSA 2025 and in JACC highlighted that acoramidis reduced cumulative cardiovascular outcomes as early as Month 1, with a 49% hazard reduction in CV mortality or recurrent CV hospitalizations by Month 30 and sustained mortality benefits at Month 42, and the company indicated these data support earlier and continuous use of Attruby (HFSA 2025, JACC, company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly by about $1 to approximately $84.65 per share, reflecting modestly higher expectations for BridgeBio's intrinsic value.
Discount Rate has inched up from roughly 7.26% to about 7.27%, indicating a marginally higher implied risk profile or required return.
Revenue Growth Assumptions have increased from about 79.5% to roughly 80.8%, signaling a modest upgrade to forward topline expansion expectations.
Net Profit Margin Outlook has edged down from around 25.6% to approximately 25.1%, suggesting slightly lower long term profitability assumptions despite stronger growth.
Future P/E Multiple has risen slightly from about 39.4x to roughly 39.9x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on expected future earnings.

Strong growth in a key drug and diversified late-stage pipeline position BridgeBio for sustained revenue momentum, market leadership, and improved profit margins.
Efficient commercialization strategy and ample cash reserves support future product launches without requiring immediate equity dilution, strengthening operational leverage.
Heavy dependence on a single revenue source, high costs, competitive threats, and regulatory uncertainties pose significant risks to growth, profitability, and financial stability.

Catalysts

About BridgeBio Pharma

A commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers, creates, tests, and delivers transformative medicines to treat patients who suffer from genetic diseases and cancers.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The accelerating prescription growth of Attruby, driven by increased identification of genetically defined subpopulations and treatment-naive patients, indicates significant runway for market penetration as precision medicine strategies and genetic screening expand-likely to drive sustained top-line revenue growth.
BridgeBio's ongoing clinical evidence generation and publication efforts are solidifying Attruby's efficacy and differentiation-especially in newly diagnosed patients and high-risk genetic subgroups-which is expected to increase adoption rates, support favorable reimbursement, and positively impact net margins by reinforcing premium pricing power.
The company's late-stage pipeline, with three Phase III readouts imminent across high unmet need rare disease indications, positions BridgeBio to leverage advancements in biotechnology for potential first-to-market and best-in-class therapies, creating the opportunity for multiple revenue inflection points and margin improvement as the portfolio diversifies.
Established commercial and patient support infrastructure, enabled by strong sales execution and white-glove access models, is expected to be redeployed for future launches, reducing incremental fixed costs per new product and supporting long-term operational leverage and net margin expansion.
Robust cash reserves, bolstered by successful product launches and royalty monetization, provide financial flexibility to advance the pipeline through critical milestones without immediate need for dilutive equity financing-helping maintain or improve per-share earnings as BridgeBio transitions to profitability.

BridgeBio Pharma Earnings and Revenue Growth

BridgeBio Pharma Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BridgeBio Pharma's revenue will grow by 92.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -329.3% today to 17.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $297.7 million (and earnings per share of $1.22) by about September 2028, up from $-776.4 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $374 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-385 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 51.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -12.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.15% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.94%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BridgeBio Pharma Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

BridgeBio remains highly reliant on Attruby for the vast majority of its current revenue, exposing the company to major pipeline concentration risk; any future competitive threats, unexpected safety concerns, or changes in standard of care could materially reduce revenue and negatively affect profitability.
Despite recent revenue growth, BridgeBio continues to report high operating expenses ($244.8M in Q2 versus $110.6M in total revenue), and future late-stage clinical trial costs, expanding SG&A spend, and reliance on milestone and licensing payments could result in persistent net losses, placing pressure on cash reserves and raising the risk of future dilutive financing that would weaken per-share earnings.
The company's future growth is heavily dependent on positive outcomes and regulatory approvals from three late-stage pipeline programs; any clinical trial failures, regulatory delays, or failure to meet primary endpoints would jeopardize near-term and long-term revenue expansion, impacting both top-line growth and market valuation.
The increasing competition in the ATTR-CM space, especially from established pharmaceutical companies with rival products and more resources (notably Pfizer and Alnylam), could erode market share, limit pricing power despite BridgeBio's current lower price point, and ultimately compress gross and net margins.
The company's generous access and support programs, along with broader industry and political pressures on drug pricing and insurance reimbursements, may lead to normalization or reduction of gross-to-net revenue over time, making sustained profitability more challenging amidst tightening healthcare budgets and potential for more restrictive payer policies.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $63.81 for BridgeBio Pharma based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $95.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $41.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.7 billion, earnings will come to $297.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 51.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.
Given the current share price of $51.84, the analyst price target of $63.81 is 18.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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