BBIO: Late Stage Pipeline Progress Will Drive Confidence Into 2026 And Beyond

Analysts nudged their average price target for BridgeBio Pharma up by about $1 to roughly $84.65 per share, citing stronger than expected Attruby revenue traction, rising conviction in BBP-418 and encaleret Phase 3 success, and greater visibility on multiple late stage catalysts into 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts are largely aligned on a constructive outlook for BridgeBio, emphasizing upside to current revenue forecasts, increasing confidence in late stage programs, and a clearer path to market for several key assets. The recent wave of price target increases reflects both stronger than expected commercial execution and improving clinical visibility into 2026 and beyond.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see room for upside to 2026 Attruby revenue estimates, pointing to the recent performance as evidence that Street models may be conservative and that long term growth and valuation could be underappreciated.
• Recent positive interim data for BBP-418 are viewed as de risking the program, with improvements in muscle damage and functional outcomes prompting expectations for a faster path to market and a potential commercial opportunity above prior $1B guidance.
• Confidence in encaleret has increased following positive Phase 3 results, with probability of approval assumptions being raised and timelines for a 2026 filing and late 2026 or early 2027 launch factored into higher peak sales and valuation models.
• Analysts highlighting achondroplasia and autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 see these late stage assets as underappreciated contributors to the pipeline, arguing that successful readouts could meaningfully expand BridgeBio's medium term growth profile and justify further multiple expansion.

Bearish Takeaways

• More cautious analysts flag potential adherence headwinds for Attruby over time, noting that some patients may discontinue therapy if perceived benefit is not immediate, which could pressure long term revenue durability relative to the more optimistic scenarios.
• There is concern that, after a strong share price move, expectations for upcoming catalysts may have become elevated, increasing execution risk and leaving less room for disappointment without impacting valuation.
• While probabilities of success for Phase 3 programs are trending higher, bears stress that any delay in regulatory timelines or weaker than expected data from infigratinib or encaleret could cap near term upside and force downward revisions to price targets.
• Uncertainty around competitive dynamics and payer response in newly targeted indications is cited as a risk to margin expansion and commercialization efficiency, potentially limiting how much of the modeled peak sales ultimately translate into sustainable earnings growth.

What's in the News

• H.C. Wainwright raised its BridgeBio price target to $90 from $80 after positive Phase 3 encaleret data in autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 and now assigns a 90% probability of approval, with an anticipated FDA submission in the first half of 2026 and a potential launch in late 2026 or early 2027 (H.C. Wainwright research note).
• BridgeBio reported positive topline Phase 3 FORTIFY results for BBP-418 in LGMD2I/R9, showing highly statistically significant and durable increases in glycosylated alpha dystroglycan, large reductions in creatine kinase, and clinically meaningful gains in ambulatory and pulmonary function, with plans for a BBP-418 NDA submission in the first half of 2026 (company announcement).
• New ATTRibute CM data in JAMA Cardiology and at AHA 2025 showed acoramidis significantly reduced all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization through Month 42 in variant ATTR CM, including a 69% reduction in ACM or first CVH in the high-risk V142I subpopulation, which the company stated reinforces the long-term benefit profile of Attruby (company announcement, JAMA Cardiology).
• BridgeBio outlined its regulatory and development roadmap for encaleret, targeting an NDA submission in the first half of 2026, an EMA filing thereafter, and registrational trials in pediatric ADH1 and adult chronic hypoparathyroidism starting in 2026, building on positive Phase 3 topline results and global orphan and fast track designations (company announcement).
• Additional ATTRibute CM presentations at HFSA 2025 and in JACC highlighted that acoramidis reduced cumulative cardiovascular outcomes as early as Month 1, with a 49% hazard reduction in CV mortality or recurrent CV hospitalizations by Month 30 and sustained mortality benefits at Month 42, and the company indicated these data support earlier and continuous use of Attruby (HFSA 2025, JACC, company announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly by about $1 to approximately $84.65 per share, reflecting modestly higher expectations for BridgeBio's intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate has inched up from roughly 7.26% to about 7.27%, indicating a marginally higher implied risk profile or required return.
• Revenue Growth Assumptions have increased from about 79.5% to roughly 80.8%, signaling a modest upgrade to forward topline expansion expectations.
• Net Profit Margin Outlook has edged down from around 25.6% to approximately 25.1%, suggesting slightly lower long term profitability assumptions despite stronger growth.
• Future P/E Multiple has risen slightly from about 39.4x to roughly 39.9x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on expected future earnings.