Key insights

Airbnb is changing from a travel-only app to a full lifestyle platform (stays, rentals, experiences)
International markets are growing faster than the US, which is slowing down
Product experience is improving a lot, with AI making search and booking easier
Regulations are becoming a big risk, especially in Europe where listings are getting removed

The way people move around the world has changed. It’s not only about holidays anymore. Now it’s also remote work, slow travel, weekend getaways, or even trying life in a new city. Airbnb is actually responding to that, and doing it better than most.

International markets are now picking up the growth while the US market is cooling a bit. They’ve launched long-term rentals, made over 500 product improvements, and are going all-in on AI to make the platform smoother. It’s easier now to find the right stay without scrolling for 20 minutes. But yeah, they’ve got problems too. Regulations are getting worse, especially in Europe. There’s a tax issue with the IRS, and their whole “experiences” side of the business still feels like an experiment.

Even with all that, they’re profitable, global, and trying to do more than just rent out rooms.

A few things I’m assuming

Travel is not going back to the old style. People want to explore but with more flexibility now.
Airbnb still has room to grow, especially outside the US. Places like Latin America and Asia are showing strong numbers.
The product is actually getting better. They’ve improved search, UX, and added smart AI tools. It’s not perfect, but it’s way less annoying to use than before.

What could push things up

Experiences and long stays. These could add more revenue if even a few of them work out.
Their AI tools help people find stays faster. That means more bookings and better conversion.
They just launched long-term rentals in London. If that works, it could open a whole new market.

What could go sideways

Regulation is the biggest risk. Spain already removed more than 60,000 listings. If other countries follow, that’s a big hit.
They have a tax issue with the IRS, a $1.3 billion dispute. Not great.
The "Experiences" business looks cool but might be hard to scale. Could turn out to be more hype than value.

Who’s coming after them

Booking.com: very strong in Europe, easy to use, and offers a lot of options
Vrbo: feels more family-friendly, and focuses on full homes only
Savvy: a newer platform offering no-fee listings, directly going after Airbnb’s fee model
Expedia and Agoda: bundled services like flights and hotels make them super convenient

Where Airbnb is doing well

They’re actually profitable, with strong free cash flow and stock buybacks
The product feels smoother now: search works better and the listings feel more curated
The brand is still strong. People trust it, and for many it’s the default option

Where they’re falling short

Guest service fees are still too high, and that hurts repeat usage
No loyalty program yet, which means less reason to stick with them
The "Experiences" side still hasn’t proven itself at scale, so it’s more of a side bet

Disclaimer

TickerTickle is an employee of Simply Wall St, but has written this narrative in their capacity as an individual investor. TickerTickle holds no position in NasdaqGS:ABNB. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimate's are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.