TextronTXT
TXT logo
Fair Value
US$103.45
Share price24 Jun
US$92.510.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Loading
1Y13.68%
7D2.61%

FAA Certification And FLRAA Program Will Strengthen Air Systems

Analyst Consensus Target compiles analysts opinions to create narratives on stocks using the Analysts Consensus Price Target, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls.

Published
08 Aug 24
Updated
24 Jun 26
Views
289
Not Invested

Last Update 24 Jun 26

Fair value Increased 4.55%

TXT: Industrial Separation And Sector Momentum Will Support Future EPS Rebound

Textron’s analyst price target has been revised higher by about $4.50 to $103.45, reflecting updated analyst assumptions around slightly different revenue growth, margins, discount rate, and future P/E expectations following a series of recent price target increases and ratings changes across the Street.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Textron shows a cluster of price target revisions and rating changes that point to a more active debate around where the stock should trade. While several bullish analysts have raised their targets, others remain cautious and are adjusting expectations more conservatively, with implications for how you weigh valuation, execution risk, and growth assumptions.

Bullish Takeaways

  • Bullish analysts have lifted Textron price targets by a wide range, including moves of about $15 and $17, indicating higher assessed upside in their valuation work after revisiting revenue, margin, and P/E assumptions.
  • Multiple firms have taken targets higher by smaller increments, such as $1, $2, and $5, which points to a series of incremental upward tweaks rather than a single outlier view.
  • The decision by TD Cowen to upgrade Textron, coupled with language that the company had been "forgotten," suggests some analysts see mispricing relative to their view of the company’s execution potential and risk profile.
  • Even where ratings are neutral, initiation and updated coverage indicate Textron is firmly on research radars. This can support more robust valuation frameworks as models are refreshed and compared.

Bearish Takeaways

  • Not all revisions have been in one direction, with at least one analyst cutting a Textron price target by $5. This highlights ongoing concern about the balance between expectations and execution risk.
  • The presence of neutral ratings, such as an initiation with a neutral view, signals that some analysts see Textron as fairly valued on their current assumptions, with limited room for upside if those assumptions hold.
  • Mixed rating actions, including upgrades alongside target cuts, point to differing views on how Textron will deliver on its revenue and margin plans. This can keep a lid on how aggressive valuation multiples are allowed to be.
  • For investors, this split in opinion means the case for Textron is still sensitive to how the company executes on its plans, with any shortfall versus analysts’ models likely to feed quickly into revised targets.

What’s in the News for Textron

  • Kautex Textron, part of Textron, secured a significant contract for its Pentatonic battery enclosure system designed for next generation hybrid electric vehicles, with production planned in North America starting in 2028, according to company announcements and related coverage.
  • The Pentatonic system includes a full battery enclosure with top cover, bottom tray, and integrated thermal management for a multi vehicle platform in the electric and hybrid passenger vehicle market, supporting Kautex Textron’s role in battery systems, per source reports.
  • Textron announced plans to separate its Industrial segment, which includes Kautex and Textron Specialized Vehicles, from its core aerospace and defense operations. Options under review include a sale or a tax free separation into a standalone public company, based on company disclosures.
  • Following the planned separation, New Textron is described as a focused aerospace and defense company centered on Textron Aviation, Bell, and Textron Systems. The Industrial segment is outlined as a mobility focused business with expected 2026 revenues of more than $3 billion, according to company statements.
  • Textron reported on share repurchase activity under previously announced buyback programs, including completed tranches totaling tens of millions of dollars, as outlined in company filings and key development summaries.

Valuation Changes for Textron

  • Fair Value: The updated Textron fair value has risen slightly from $98.95 to $103.45, an increase of about 4.5% in the model output.
  • Discount Rate: The discount rate has moved higher from 8.00% to about 8.56%, indicating a modestly higher required return in the updated assumptions.
  • Revenue Growth: Assumed dollar revenue growth has been reduced from about 4.15% to roughly 3.25%, reflecting more tempered top line expectations in the model.
  • Profit Margin: Assumed net profit margin has shifted only marginally, from about 6.91% to roughly 6.92%, leaving Textron’s modeled profitability essentially unchanged.
  • Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has been raised from about 16.8x to roughly 18.4x, implying a higher valuation multiple applied to Textron earnings in the updated work.
3 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Key Takeaways

  • FAA certification of the Catalyst engine will boost revenue for Textron with strong market demand for the Beechcraft Denali program.
  • Strategic restructuring and industrial segment optimization, including power sports divestiture, will enhance net margins by lowering exposure to low-margin products.
  • Challenges in cost management, product mix, and external vulnerabilities may hinder Textron's profitability and future revenue growth in key segments.

Catalysts

About Textron
    Operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide.
What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
  • The FAA certification of the GE Aerospace Catalyst turboprop engine for the Beechcraft Denali program is set to significantly boost revenue as the program progresses toward completion, offering a new product line with expected strong market demand.
  • Bell's military and commercial segments are experiencing strong growth, driven by FLRAA program execution and recent new contracts for aircraft, which will positively impact revenue and potentially increase net margins through scale and efficiency improvements.
  • The strategic shift and restructuring in Textron's Industrial segment, including the sale of the powersports business, is expected to optimize operations and cost structure, potentially enhancing net margins by reducing exposure to lower-margin product lines.
  • Aviation's ongoing recovery from post-strike disruptions, with improving factory operations and productivity metrics, positions the company for increased production efficiency, which is anticipated to improve earnings as the ramp-up progresses.
  • Continued strength in Textron's Aviation aftermarket business, driven by robust fleet utilization and flying hours, is likely to contribute to increased revenue and improved net margins, given the typically higher profitability of aftermarket services compared to new product sales.
Textron Earnings and Revenue Growth

Textron Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

  • Analysts are assuming Textron's revenue will grow by 3.2% annually over the next 3 years.
  • Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.2% today to 6.9% in 3 years time.
  • Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.2 billion (and earnings per share of $7.12) by about June 2029, up from $936.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
  • In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.5x on those 2029 earnings, up from 16.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Aerospace & Defense industry at 40.2x.
  • Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.42% per year for the next 3 years.
  • To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.56%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?
  • Textron's overall segment profit declined even with revenue growth, indicating potential issues with cost management or pricing strategies that could impact future net margins.
  • Textron Aviation experienced a decrease in segment profit due to a less favorable mix of aircraft sold, which may continue to impact earnings if product mix doesn't improve.
  • The Industrial segment reported lower revenues due to reduced volume and mix, which reflects potential weaknesses in the demand for its products, potentially affecting revenue growth.
  • Textron's exposure to the automotive market through its Kautex business makes it vulnerable to declines in global automotive production, which could reduce revenues.
  • Even though supply chain disruptions seem under control for now, future tariff impacts and geopolitical uncertainties could increase costs or disrupt production, negatively affecting net margins and earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

  • The analysts have a consensus price target of $103.45 for Textron based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  • However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $115.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $90.0.
  • In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $16.7 billion, earnings will come to $1.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
  • Given the current share price of $86.4, the analyst price target of $103.45 is 16.5% higher.
  • We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Textron?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Read more narratives

Fair Value vs Share Price

US$103.45
vs US$92.510.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
PastFuture017b2015201820212024202620272029Revenue US$16.7bEarnings US$1.2b
3.2%
Revenue growth
6.9%
Profit margin

Recent News & Updates

No updates

Recent updates

No updates

Stay ahead on Textron

  • Fair value estimate changes
  • Narrative and analyst updates
  • Key company announcements

Company analysis

Flawless balance sheet and undervalued.

Market capUS$16.1b
PB2.0x
Estimated Growth3.0%
Dividend Yield0.09%
Full analysis

CEO & management

Lisa Atherton
CEO
3.5yrs
CEO Tenure

Operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide.