Alarm.com Holdings 향후 성장
Future 기준 점검 1/6
Alarm.com Holdings (는) 각각 연간 6.5% 및 4.5% 수익과 수익이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. EPS는 연간 0.2% 만큼 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다. 자기자본이익률은 3년 후 14.8% 로 예상됩니다.
핵심 정보
6.5%
이익 성장률
0.22%
EPS 성장률
| Software 이익 성장 | 19.3% |
| 매출 성장률 | 4.5% |
| 향후 자기자본이익률 | 14.80% |
| 애널리스트 커버리지 | Good |
| 마지막 업데이트 | 20 Apr 2026 |
최근 향후 성장 업데이트
Recent updates
내러티브 업데이트 • Apr 26
ALRM: AI Disruption Concerns Will Test But Not Break Future Earnings Power
Alarm.com Holdings' latest analyst price targets have shifted lower, with recent cuts such as $56 to $50 and $55 to $40 reflecting updated models after the Q4 report and wider concerns about software sector competitive moats in light of rapid AI adoption. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alarm.com highlights a mix of company specific considerations and broader sector questions, with price targets reset to $50 and $40 after the Q4 report and a relook at vertical software valuations.
내러티브 업데이트 • Apr 10
ALRM: AI Proliferation And Reset Expectations Will Shape Fair Value Outlook
Analysts have lowered Alarm.com Holdings' average price target significantly. Recent revisions to $50 and $40 reflect updated Q4 modeling and broader concerns about vertical software valuations and competitive moats as AI adoption accelerates.내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 27
ALRM: AI Proliferation And Fair Value Outlook Will Shape Sector Multiple
Alarm.com Holdings' analyst price targets have been reset lower, with recent cuts to $50 and $40. These changes reflect updated models after the Q4 report and broader concern from analysts about vertical software valuations and the impact of rapid AI adoption on competitive moats.내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 12
ALRM: Future Earnings Power Will Be Tested By AI Moat Concerns
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alarm.com Holdings to $58.00 from $68.71, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following recent price target cuts from $56 to $50 and from $55 to $40 in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a mix of caution and recalibration around Alarm.com Holdings, with price targets reset following the latest Q4 report and broader reassessments in software valuations.내러티브 업데이트 • Feb 25
ALRM: AI Moat Uncertainty Will Pressure Vertical Software Multiple
Narrative Update: Alarm.com Holdings Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alarm.com Holdings to $40 from $55, pointing to updated sector views, revised P/E assumptions, and recent research that includes reduced price targets of $40 and $50 following the latest Q4 report. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on Alarm.com Holdings, with multiple bearish analysts trimming price targets after the latest Q4 report and sector review.내러티브 업데이트 • Feb 11
ALRM: Expanding Connected Security Offerings Will Support Constructive Long Term Outlook
Analysts have maintained their price target for Alarm.com Holdings at $55.00, noting that only minor adjustments to assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E were made, which do not materially change their overall view. What's in the News Alarm.com released a low cost Video Intercom Mobile Directory that replaces traditional intercom hardware with a mobile based, QR code enabled visitor management system for multi-tenant residential and commercial properties, using the company’s existing professionally installed and monitored infrastructure (Key Developments).분석 기사 • Feb 10
Is Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...내러티브 업데이트 • Jan 27
ALRM: Expanding Security Platform And Disciplined Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts kept their price target for Alarm.com Holdings steady at US$55.00, citing only small model adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions rather than any major change in the outlook. What's in the News Launched the ADC-V730, the company's first Wi-Fi spotlight camera.내러티브 업데이트 • Jan 11
ALRM: Expanding Security Platform And Steady Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Alarm.com Holdings at $55.00. This reflects only slight adjustments in inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, rather than a change in their overall price view.분석 기사 • Jan 08
Is There Now An Opportunity In Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)?
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price...내러티브 업데이트 • Dec 27
ALRM: Expanded Security Offerings And Buybacks Will Support Steady Outlook
Narrative Update Analysts have maintained their price target for Alarm.com Holdings at 55.00 dollars, with only marginal model refinements to discount rates, revenue growth, profit margin, and future valuation multiples. These refinements support a steady outlook rather than a material reassessment of the company’s fair value.내러티브 업데이트 • Dec 12
ALRM: Product Expansion And Share Buybacks Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alarm.com Holdings by 10.0 percent, from 50 dollars to 55 dollars, citing slightly higher long term profit margin and valuation assumptions despite somewhat slower projected revenue growth. What's in the News Launched a low cost Video Intercom Mobile Directory that modernizes multi tenant visitor management with QR code access, mobile video calling, and remote door control, reducing the need for in unit hardware (Key Developments).분석 기사 • Oct 08
Is Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Using Too Much Debt?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...분석 기사 • Jul 17
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)?
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price...분석 기사 • Jul 04
Some Investors May Be Worried About Alarm.com Holdings' (NASDAQ:ALRM) Returns On Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll...Seeking Alpha • Jun 24
Alarm.com Has Twin Challenges Of Sustainable Growth And Tariff Pricing Pass-Through
Summary Alarm.com delivered better-than-expected Q1 2025 results, but US residential growth remains challenged and tariff uncertainties will likely pressure hardware margins. SaaS and international segments are driving higher margins and growth, yet the sustainability of these trends is still uncertain for the second half of 2025. ALRM's capital allocation has been conservative, with opportunistic buybacks offsetting stock-based compensation, but management's future plans remain unclear. I maintain a neutral Hold rating until we see more durable international/commercial growth and the resolution of tariff risks impacting hardware profitability. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha분석 기사 • Jun 14
Is There An Opportunity With Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) 24% Undervaluation?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Alarm.com Holdings fair value estimate is US$74.34 Alarm.com...분석 기사 • May 29
Most Shareholders Will Probably Agree With Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) CEO Compensation
Key Insights Alarm.com Holdings to hold its Annual General Meeting on 4th of June Salary of US$238.3k is part of CEO...분석 기사 • May 13
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Shareholders Might Be Looking For Exit
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.2x Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) may be sending bearish...Seeking Alpha • Apr 21
Alarm.com: Strong Financials And Solid Results, But Rising Market Competition Poses Risks
Summary Alarm.com Holdings is a market leader in cloud-based IoT security solutions, with strong financials and a revenue CAGR of 11.05% from FY20 to FY24. Despite growth, Alarm faces challenges from tech giants like Google and Amazon, and high revenue concentration from top ten customers. Management's growth strategy focuses on commercial surveillance, smart energy, and international expansion, but ADT's partnership with Google poses significant risks. A DCF analysis indicates a potential downside of over 10%, leading to a "Hold" rating due to rising competition and valuation concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha분석 기사 • Apr 16
What Does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Share Price Indicate?
While Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of...분석 기사 • Mar 21
Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM)
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...분석 기사 • Mar 04
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is US$64.51 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...분석 기사 • Feb 19
These 4 Measures Indicate That Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Using Debt Safely
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...분석 기사 • Dec 19
Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to...분석 기사 • Dec 05
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...분석 기사 • Nov 26
Calculating The Fair Value Of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is US$57.23 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...분석 기사 • Nov 14
We Think Alarm.com Holdings' (NASDAQ:ALRM) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. We...분석 기사 • Nov 13
These 4 Measures Indicate That Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Using Debt Safely
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...분석 기사 • Nov 01
Is There Now An Opportunity In Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)?
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price...Seeking Alpha • Sep 11
Alarm.com: There Are Likely Better Entry Points On The Horizon
Summary Alarm.com is expanding internationally and into commercial markets, but its EPS and revenue growth rates are currently a contraction from historical levels. Despite a contraction in top-line and bottom-line growth, its PE and PS ratios have not contracted enough. Therefore, I consider the stock to have a vulnerable valuation at the moment. I expect we could see a near-term stock price decline, but I believe the consensus estimates could begin to expand long-term as management consolidates its position in new markets. My conclusion is that there are better entry points for buying into Alarm.com, but it is certainly a strong company with robust long-term prospects if management continues to operate well. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha분석 기사 • Sep 09
There's Reason For Concern Over Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Price
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may...
새 내러티브 • Sep 05
Cloud Expansion And Generative AI Propel Growth Amid Market And Profit Margin Challenges
Expansion through cloud-based solutions and generative AI adoption indicates growth in the commercial segment and operational efficiency.분석 기사 • Aug 21
Calculating The Fair Value Of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is US$63.87 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...분석 기사 • Aug 06
Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want...분석 기사 • Jul 25
Is Now The Time To Put Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) On Your Watchlist?
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...분석 기사 • Jul 12
Why Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) Could Be Worth Watching
While Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share...Seeking Alpha • Jul 09
Alarm.com Holdings: Strong Partnerships To Meet Demand For Security
Summary ALRM benefits from strong partnerships with top home security provider in US and 12,000 partners, giving it competitive advantage. Huge addressable market for security solutions, with TAM of ~$52 billion/year. ALRM's B2B2C model, partnerships with ADT and 12,000 service providers, and focus on innovation position it for long-term growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha분석 기사 • Jun 10
Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Could Easily Take On More Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...분석 기사 • May 02
Earnings Not Telling The Story For Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 41.4x Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) may be sending very bearish...이익 및 매출 성장 예측
| 날짜 | 매출 | 이익 | 자유현금흐름 | 영업현금흐름 | 평균 애널리스트 수 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,155 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,109 | 151 | 223 | 234 | 6 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,061 | 134 | 212 | 220 | 6 |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,011 | 133 | 136 | 153 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 992 | 128 | 153 | 174 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 976 | 130 | 161 | 180 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 955 | 128 | 164 | 181 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 940 | 124 | 193 | 206 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 924 | 125 | 178 | 190 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 905 | 108 | 165 | 176 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 895 | 90 | 174 | 189 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 882 | 81 | 122 | 136 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 864 | 68 | 118 | 131 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 858 | 67 | 66 | 78 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 847 | 62 | 38 | 67 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 843 | 56 | 28 | 57 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 830 | 47 | 8 | 42 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 806 | 43 | 36 | 70 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 782 | 47 | 54 | 68 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 749 | 52 | 88 | 103 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 719 | 59 | 104 | 119 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 686 | 82 | 83 | 99 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 639 | 84 | 93 | 110 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 618 | 78 | 82 | 102 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 593 | 75 | 66 | 90 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 562 | 57 | 47 | 72 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 542 | 53 | 37 | 61 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 502 | 54 | 27 | 47 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 473 | 48 | N/A | 50 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 457 | 23 | N/A | 68 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 440 | 20 | N/A | 56 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 420 | 22 | N/A | 61 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 398 | 14 | N/A | 54 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 376 | 37 | N/A | 48 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 357 | 36 | N/A | 48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 339 | 29 | N/A | 57 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 320 | 32 | N/A | 50 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 298 | 19 | N/A | 39 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 276 | 11 | N/A | 28 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 261 | 10 | N/A | 23 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 248 | 10 | N/A | 17 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 234 | 11 | N/A | 27 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 222 | -8 | N/A | 31 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 209 | -7 | N/A | 28 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 198 | -10 | N/A | 30 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 186 | -13 | N/A | 17 | N/A |
애널리스트 향후 성장 전망
수입 대 저축률: ALRM 의 연간 예상 수익 증가율(6.5%)이 saving rate(3.5%)보다 높습니다.
수익 vs 시장: ALRM 의 연간 수익(6.5%)이 US 시장(16.6%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.
고성장 수익: ALRM 의 수입은 증가할 것으로 예상되지만 상당히 증가하지는 않을 것입니다.
수익 대 시장: ALRM 의 수익(연간 4.5%)이 US 시장(연간 11.5%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.
고성장 매출: ALRM 의 수익(연간 4.5%)은 연간 20%보다 느리게 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
주당순이익 성장 예측
향후 자기자본이익률
미래 ROE: ALRM의 자본 수익률은 3년 후 14.8%로 낮을 것으로 예상됩니다.
성장 기업 찾아보기
기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태
| 데이터 | 최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간) |
|---|---|
| 기업 분석 | 2026/05/07 23:04 |
| 종가 | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| 수익 | 2025/12/31 |
| 연간 수익 | 2025/12/31 |
데이터 소스
당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.
| 패키지 | 데이터 | 기간 | 미국 소스 예시 * |
|---|---|---|---|
| 기업 재무제표 | 10년 |
| |
| 분석가 컨센서스 추정치 | +3년 |
|
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| 시장 가격 | 30년 |
| |
| 지분 구조 | 10년 |
| |
| 경영진 | 10년 |
| |
| 주요 개발 | 10년 |
|
* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.
별도로 명시되지 않는 한 모든 재무 데이터는 연간 기간을 기준으로 하지만 분기별로 업데이트됩니다. 이를 TTM(최근 12개월) 또는 LTM(지난 12개월) 데이터라고 합니다. 자세히 알아보기.
분석 모델 및 스노우플레이크
이 보고서를 생성하는 데 사용된 분석 모델에 대한 자세한 내용은 당사의 Github 페이지에서 확인하실 수 있습니다. 또한 보고서 활용 방법에 대한 가이드와 YouTube 튜토리얼도 제공합니다.
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산업 및 섹터 지표
산업 및 섹터 지표는 Simply Wall St가 6시간마다 계산하며, 프로세스에 대한 자세한 내용은 Github에서 확인할 수 있습니다.
분석가 소스
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.는 10명의 분석가가 다루고 있습니다. 이 중 6명의 분석가가 우리 보고서에 입력 데이터로 사용되는 매출 또는 수익 추정치를 제출했습니다. 분석가의 제출 자료는 하루 종일 업데이트됩니다.
| 분석가 | 기관 |
|---|---|
| Saket Kalia | Barclays |
| Adam Hotchkiss | Goldman Sachs |
| Samad Samana | Jefferies LLC |