JD.com 향후 성장
Future 기준 점검 3/6
JD.com (는) 각각 연간 29.4% 및 5.1% 수익과 수익이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. EPS는 연간 31.8% 만큼 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다. 자기자본이익률은 3년 후 14.7% 로 예상됩니다.
핵심 정보
29.4%
이익 성장률
31.79%
EPS 성장률
| Multiline Retail 이익 성장 | 16.8% |
| 매출 성장률 | 5.1% |
| 향후 자기자본이익률 | 14.69% |
| 애널리스트 커버리지 | Good |
| 마지막 업데이트 | 25 May 2026 |
최근 향후 성장 업데이트
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 12
JD.com: Far From Being A Lost Cause
Summary JD.com, Inc. remains a deep value play, with a forward P/E at a 35.67% sector discount and fundamentals that don't need to be perfect for upside. Q1 showed revenue growth acceleration to 4.9% YoY, with service revenues outpacing sluggish product sales amid ongoing consumer weakness in China. New business initiatives are dragging on margins, but management demonstrates long-term confidence and strategic ambition with Joybuy's European launch. I reiterate my Buy rating, as recent improvements in cash flow and resilient top-line growth support a favorable risk/reward profile for patient investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
내러티브 업데이트 • May 01
JD: Delivery Investments And Europe Expansion Will Continue To Pressure Margins
Analyst price targets for JD.com have moved up by a few dollars per share, as analysts point to more disciplined food delivery spending and refreshed models from firms that recently raised their $ targets following earlier Q4 related cuts. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on JD.com point to a mixed setup for investors, with some firms turning more constructive while others keep a tight focus on execution risks, profitability trends, and how much of that is already reflected in the share price.내러티브 업데이트 • Apr 17
JD: Ongoing Delivery Investments Will Continue To Pressure Margins And Returns
Analysts have lifted the JD.com fair value estimate from $23.65 to $26.57. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, modestly improved profit margins, a reduced discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple, supported by a recent wave of price target increases and upgrades tied to lower food delivery spending and refreshed models after the latest results.
새로운 내러티브 • Apr 08
JD.com, Inc. (JD): The "Supply Chain Sovereign" Engineering a Global AI Retail Reset
JD.com, Inc. (JD) , China’s largest retailer by revenue and its premier vertically integrated e-commerce giant, closed the April 8, 2026, session at $29.05 USD on the NASDAQ.내러티브 업데이트 • Apr 03
JD: Ongoing Delivery And Advertising Spend Will Pressure Margins For Longer
Analysts have trimmed JD.com's fair value estimate from $26.40 to $23.65, citing recent price target cuts that reflect ongoing pressure on profitability from investments in food delivery and advertising. Updated models incorporate revised assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E levels.
내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 20
JD: Europe Expansion And Ongoing Investments Will Reshape Profitability Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for JD.com from about $60.47 to $53.57 as price targets across the Street move lower. The change reflects updated models that factor in a slightly higher discount rate, modestly softer margin expectations, and ongoing investment spending that is weighing on near term profitability.내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 06
JD: Slower Revenue And Higher Marketing Spend Will Test Margin Resilience
Analysts have reduced their average fair value estimate for JD.com from about $28.36 to $26.40. This change reflects updated models after recent Q4 results and concerns about slower revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, a higher discount rate, and ongoing pressure from advertising spend on profitability.분석 기사 • Jan 05
An Intrinsic Calculation For JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, JD.com fair value estimate is US$55.30 Current share price of...
내러티브 업데이트 • Oct 31
JD: Delivery Order Momentum Will Drive Further Business Expansion Ahead
JD.com's analyst price target has been raised slightly, reflecting a modest increase of $0.14 to $45.26. Analysts point to recent order growth and ongoing strategic investments supporting a positive outlook.내러티브 업데이트 • Oct 17
Chinese Digital Retail And Logistics Will Open Markets Despite Risks
JD.com's analyst-derived fair value price target was nudged up by $0.13 to $45.12, as analysts cite slightly higher expected revenue growth. However, this is tempered by ongoing margin pressures and continued strategic investment priorities.내러티브 업데이트 • Oct 03
Chinese Digital Retail And Logistics Will Open Markets Despite Risks
Analysts have modestly raised their fair value price target for JD.com from $44.52 to $44.99. They cite balanced expectations for the company's growth outlook, ongoing strategic investments, and profitability considerations.내러티브 업데이트 • Sep 04
Chinese Digital Retail And Logistics Will Open Markets Despite Risks
Analysts have tempered their long-term outlook on JD.com due to ongoing margin pressures and uncertainty over profitability from new business investments, leading to a consensus price target that remains at $44.48 despite strong near-term revenue growth. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts remain positive on JD.com's near-term growth outlook, citing strong Q2 topline performance and expectations for above-consensus revenue growth.분석 기사 • Aug 21
We Think That There Are Issues Underlying JD.com's (NASDAQ:JD) Earnings
NasdaqGS:JD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore JD.com's Fair Values from the Community and select yours JD.com...분석 기사 • Aug 18
Earnings Beat: JD.com, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
NasdaqGS:JD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore JD.com's Fair Values from the Community and select yours JD.com...분석 기사 • Jul 15
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For JD.com's (NASDAQ:JD) Returns On Capital
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...분석 기사 • Jun 30
JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) Could Easily Take On More Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...분석 기사 • Jun 15
JD.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:JD) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may...분석 기사 • May 30
With EPS Growth And More, JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) Makes An Interesting Case
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Seeking Alpha • Apr 19
JD.com: Enduring Growth Amid A Trade War, Hiking My Target Price
Summary Chinese stocks have outperformed in 2025; JD's strong fundamentals and government stimulus support a buy rating despite the recent pullback. JD's Q4 results exceeded expectations with $1.02 EPS and $47.5B revenue; margins and government subsidies drive optimism for 2025. JD's valuation is attractive with a forward EPS of $4.80, a 12x multiple, and a $58 intrinsic value target, indicating significant upside. Technical support at $32 is crucial; maintaining this level and rallying on improved RSI momentum could lead to a strong performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 20
JD.com: Why I See Significant Upside Potential
Summary JD.com stock is significantly undervalued, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 0.38x, suggesting strong upside potential compared to its U.S. rivals. Despite China's economic slowdown, JD.com has strong financials, with $158.76 billion in annual revenue and impressive net income growth. The company has seen double-digit gains in retail and logistics in Q4, with increasing user growth and shopping frequency, boosting margins. JD.com is rated a Strong Buy by Wall St. analysts and Seeking Alpha Quant ratings, with potential upside from a domestic retail rebound. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 11
JD.com: Upgrading To Buy On Government Subsidy Tailwinds Driving Growth
Summary We are upgrading JD.com stock to Buy from Sell due to strong 4Q24 results and government consumption subsidies boosting revenue growth, especially in electronics and home appliances. Valuing JD at $56/share based on 8x forward EV/EBITDA multiple, reflecting its above-industry revenue growth and favorable macro policy support. Government subsidies are expected to continue, benefiting JD's large-ticket items; Xiaomi also seen as a potential beneficiary in non-smartphone segments. Risks include potential economic weakness impacting consumption and higher costs from JD's on-demand services expansion, but the subsidy-driven narrative remains strong for 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 24
JD: Earnings To Reflect Q4 Stimulus
Summary JD.com is expected to report record revenues on March 6th, driven by continued growth and recent Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Despite economic challenges, JD generated $4.7B in free cash flow in the first nine months of 2024, supporting stock buybacks and a stable dividend. JD's P/E ratio of 13.48 suggests undervaluation, especially compared to BABA, indicating potential for multiple expansion in the e-commerce sector. Risks include potential earnings miss, prolonged Chinese economic slowdown, and escalating US-China trade tensions, but JD's domestic focus may mitigate trade war impacts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 13
JD.com: Is Instant Retail A Recipe For Success Or A Misstep In A Crowded Market?
Summary JD.com's low commission strategy in food delivery is unsustainable long-term due to high operational costs and lack of delivery network scale. JD lacks the delivery personnel and merchant base to compete effectively with Meituan and Ele.me, limiting its growth potential. JD should focus on international expansion and leveraging its e-commerce strengths, rather than entering China's competitive food delivery market. With JD trading at 9x forward earnings, it remains a value trap; investors should consider higher-quality Chinese internet stocks like Meituan and PDD. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 13
JD.com: Consumption Subsidies A Short-Term Catalyst, But Value Trap Remains
Summary China's new consumption policy could boost JD.com's home appliances and electronics revenue, posing a short-term upside risk to our bearish view on the stock. JD's PLUS membership upgrades, including generous return policies and unlimited free shipping, may enhance user stickiness and drive higher transaction frequency. Despite potential short-term gains, JD remains a value trap due to its reliance on China's weak housing market and limited international growth potential. We recommend rotating into higher-growth names like PDD, which offers low-cost leadership and global growth potential, trading at a discount compared to JD. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 05
JD.Com: A Capital Return Play For 2025
Summary JD.com is a leading e-Commerce company in China, poised to benefit from Beijing’s stimulus package aimed at boosting consumer spending and economic growth. The company is highly profitable, generating significant operating income/free cash flow and returning substantial capital to shareholders through aggressive stock buybacks. JD.com trades at a 7.3X forward P/E ratio (14% earnings yield), offering an attractive risk profile. The primary risk is JD.com's heavy reliance on China's consumer spending, making it potentially riskier than more diversified rivals like Alibaba and Pinduoduo. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 26
JD.Com Stock Should Surge Anew Despite Trump Tariffs
Summary JD.com is well-positioned despite geopolitical risks, with strong domestic focus and limited exposure to U.S. tariffs, making it a Buy. Management's innovations in AI-driven logistics and vertical integration enhance delivery speeds and customer trust, setting JD apart from Alibaba. Strong financials with $153 billion in revenue and $33.6 billion in free cash flow, yet market undervalues JD with a P/E ratio of 11.6. Government stimulus and regulatory alignment offer economic tailwinds, while Wall Street analysts remain bullish with no Sell ratings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
새로운 내러티브 • Nov 24
Enhanced Supply Chain And Strategic Programs Set The Stage For A Retail Growth Revolution
Enhanced supply chain and logistics are expected to lower costs and improve margins, positively impacting revenue and net margins.Seeking Alpha • Nov 14
JD.com: Excellent Q3 Results, Cheap Again
Summary JD.com has delivered strong Q3 earnings, beating analyst expectations on both revenue and profit, indicating consistent underestimation by analysts. JD.com is attractively valued at just 9x forward net profits and 6x forward EV/EBITDA. The company is focusing on profitability over aggressive growth, with operating profit up 18% and a new $5 billion share repurchase program. Risks include potential trade tensions and Chinese consumer sentiment, but JD.com's strong balance sheet and low valuation mitigate these concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 08
JD.com Could Thrive In A Trump Presidency
Summary JD.com stock fell on Wednesday as investors digested the implications of Trump's election win. Trump has pledged to slap 60% tariffs on goods from China, which would harm Chinese exports to the U.S. JD has barely any U.S. business, none of which is direct exports: its U.S. exposure is limited to providing logistics to Chinese companies trying to enter the U.S. market. The above logistics activities do not make up a large percentage of JD's revenue mix. In this article, I explore why JD stock should fare decently through Trump's second administration. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 21
JD.com: Valuation And Fundamentals At An Inflection Point
Summary JD.com remains a buy due to expected revenue acceleration, margin expansion, and strong EPS growth, despite the stock's recent increase. Revenue growth will be driven by macro environment improvements, recovery from past actions, and 3P & general merchandise market expansion. JD is still undervalued, with the market pricing it as if it will shrink, making it an attractive investment. Previous valuation analysis using price/sales ratio and DCF model still supports JD's potential for a 19% annualized return over 5 years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 04
JD.com: This Is Probably Just The Beginning
Summary JD is still struggling to grow its top line, but due to improving margins and share buybacks, the bottom line almost doubled in the second quarter. In the years to come, JD will continue to grow its top line and can also use its free cash flow and cash reserves for share buybacks. Despite increasing 100% from its bottom, the stock price is still deeply undervalued. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 21
Can JD Maintain Its Momentum
Summary JD's RSI indicates a neutral momentum, while the stock is consolidating around key Fibonacci levels. Gross margin reached a historical high of 15.8%, showing YoY growth for two consecutive years. Electronics and home appliances revenue declined 4.6% YoY, but general merchandise grew 8.7%, with double-digit supermarket growth. JD repurchased 137 million Class A shares in Q2 2024, with a new $5 billion repurchase program starting in September. Revenue growth slowed to 1.2% YoY, below previous CAGR of 19%, as average order value continues to decline. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 30
JD.com: Top Chinese Stock To Buy Now
Summary JD.com has faced challenges but remains highly profitable with a low enterprise value, potentially trading at just 5-6 times forward EPS estimates. Despite stagnant growth, JD's earnings have consistently outperformed expectations, suggesting the potential for significant stock price appreciation when sales growth returns. Technical indicators show JD may have bottomed out, with potential resistance at $35-$40 and a long-term inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. Wall Street targets imply substantial upside, with average price targets around $41 and high-end estimates suggesting up to 170% growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 19
JD.com's Q2 Earnings: Profit Margins Are Well Set To Soar 2x
Summary JD.com delivered another quarter of growth after revenues contracted for the majority of 2023. However, Q3 revenues still came in under consensus expectations. However, JD's focus on supply chain investments and efficiency has paved the way for margin expansion, setting it apart from competitors as management believes margins can double from here. A robust buyback program that is already being executed, a solid balance sheet, and attractive single-digit valuations point to a significant upside for JD stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 12
JD.com: A Depressed Multiple With Real EPS Growth And Impressive FCF
Summary JD has struggled in the past few years despite a rally earlier this year, with investors selling tech and consumer-related China stocks. JD reported positive Q1 results in May, with strong earnings trends, and the stock now sports a low valuation. Amid bullish EPS trends and a sub-8 P/E, I see encouraging signs heading into the Q2 report. I highlight key price levels to monitor on the chart and assess the options situation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 18
JD.com: Great Bang For The Buck
Summary Solid revenue growth and robust FCF profitability support an investment in JD.com. JD.com announced a new $3.0B stock buyback authorization earlier this year, which will allow the e-Commerce company to buy back its deeply discounted shares. JD.com is also free cash flow-profitable, and the company's e-Commerce business is cheap compared to rivals. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 10
JD.com: Big Buyback Could Ramp Up Growth
Summary A few months ago, I covered JD.com stock, calling it a value (borderline deep value) play with potential. Since my last article published, JD stock has beaten the market. Despite the significant gains (about 21%), I'm actually more bullish on the stock now than I was then. I sold my JD shares on their last leg up, which took their value past $30. They have since given up some of those gains; I'd be comfortable holding JD today. In this article, I explain why I'm upgrading JD to strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 26
JD.com: A Cautious Buy On The Back Of Sentiment Recovery And The Economy
Summary JD.com, Inc. is trading at a cheap valuation compared to American and European e-commerce retailers, but concerns about corporate governance and Chinese economic uncertainty are weighing down the stock. Earnings momentum, not valuation multiples, will likely drive the stock higher, especially as consumer confidence in China gradually recovers. Despite strong results in the first quarter of 2024, JD's stock has declined due to concerns about future growth prospects and increasing competition in the Chinese market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 06
JD.com: The Sell-Off Created An Opportunity
Summary JD.com reported solid Q1 earnings and has a positive outlook for 2024 and 2025. The stock price fell after earnings due to profit-taking and correlation with broader Chinese markets. There is a buying opportunity in the $26.5-$28 range, with potential for new highs above $35.69 this year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha이익 및 매출 성장 예측
| 날짜 | 매출 | 이익 | 자유현금흐름 | 영업현금흐름 | 평균 애널리스트 수 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,553,703 | 44,750 | 54,648 | 79,890 | 24 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,472,150 | 36,249 | 51,702 | 64,059 | 39 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,386,093 | 26,160 | 33,462 | 60,481 | 39 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,323,697 | 13,843 | 17,277 | 37,808 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,309,085 | 19,631 | 1,200 | 18,991 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,303,787 | 32,198 | 8,484 | 23,003 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,265,115 | 38,653 | 7,538 | 24,819 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,199,852 | 45,119 | 33,578 | 51,148 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,158,819 | 41,359 | 39,968 | 58,095 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 1,117,910 | 34,894 | 27,588 | 52,817 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 1,105,221 | 31,099 | 49,176 | 74,040 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 1,101,755 | 25,036 | 47,173 | 69,813 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1,084,662 | 24,167 | 34,038 | 59,521 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,074,031 | 23,810 | 35,842 | 58,394 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 1,069,868 | 21,837 | 29,676 | 52,541 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 1,049,537 | 19,632 | 12,469 | 39,697 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 1,046,236 | 10,380 | 32,736 | 57,819 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,026,697 | 2,183 | 20,664 | 45,805 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,001,870 | -6,587 | 24,300 | 51,102 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 988,071 | -10,168 | 22,325 | 46,325 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 951,592 | -3,560 | 18,420 | 42,301 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 900,013 | 25,930 | 22,327 | 41,042 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 855,519 | 36,297 | 25,149 | 38,851 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 802,773 | 51,949 | 20,662 | 36,577 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 745,802 | 49,405 | 30,088 | 42,544 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 692,158 | 28,714 | 24,122 | 37,334 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 652,786 | 21,766 | 14,421 | 26,341 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 602,013 | 5,938 | 13,312 | 19,915 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 576,888 | 12,184 | N/A | 24,781 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 541,037 | 3,745 | N/A | 30,806 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 510,962 | 6,134 | N/A | 31,756 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 482,973 | 3,303 | N/A | 27,978 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 462,020 | -2,492 | N/A | 20,881 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 437,353 | 1,404 | N/A | 18,240 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 416,331 | -582 | N/A | 14,344 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 387,241 | 1,343 | N/A | 18,612 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 362,332 | 117 | N/A | 26,857 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 331,578 | -235 | N/A | 20,487 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 310,343 | -2,693 | N/A | 24,790 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 279,538 | -792 | N/A | 10,266 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 258,290 | -2,000 | N/A | 8,240 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 233,475 | -8,096 | N/A | 11,703 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 217,924 | -9,319 | N/A | -413 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 198,605 | -9,308 | N/A | 2,260 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 181,042 | -7,732 | N/A | 1,696 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 161,400 | -3,700 | N/A | 499 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 146,301 | -1,839 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
애널리스트 향후 성장 전망
수입 대 저축률: JD 의 연간 예상 수익 증가율(29.4%)이 saving rate(3.5%)보다 높습니다.
수익 vs 시장: JD 의 연간 수익(29.4%)이 US 시장(16.9%)보다 빠르게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.
고성장 수익: JD 의 수입은 향후 3년 동안 상당히 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
수익 대 시장: JD 의 수익(연간 5.1%)이 US 시장(연간 11.9%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.
고성장 매출: JD 의 수익(연간 5.1%)은 연간 20%보다 느리게 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
주당순이익 성장 예측
향후 자기자본이익률
미래 ROE: JD의 자본 수익률은 3년 후 14.7%로 낮을 것으로 예상됩니다.
성장 기업 찾아보기
기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태
| 데이터 | 최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간) |
|---|---|
| 기업 분석 | 2026/05/28 21:44 |
| 종가 | 2026/05/28 00:00 |
| 수익 | 2026/03/31 |
| 연간 수익 | 2025/12/31 |
데이터 소스
당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.
| 패키지 | 데이터 | 기간 | 미국 소스 예시 * |
|---|---|---|---|
| 기업 재무제표 | 10년 |
| |
| 분석가 컨센서스 추정치 | +3년 |
|
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| 시장 가격 | 30년 |
| |
| 지분 구조 | 10년 |
| |
| 경영진 | 10년 |
| |
| 주요 개발 | 10년 |
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* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.
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| 분석가 | 기관 |
|---|---|
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