Spotify Technology 향후 성장

Future 기준 점검 2/6

Spotify Technology (는) 각각 연간 10.5% 및 11.9% 수익과 수익이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. EPS는 연간 10.2% 만큼 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다. 자기자본이익률은 3년 후 23.3% 로 예상됩니다.

핵심 정보

10.5%

이익 성장률

10.20%

EPS 성장률

Entertainment 이익 성장	23.7%
매출 성장률	11.9%
향후 자기자본이익률	23.30%
애널리스트 커버리지	Good
마지막 업데이트	11 Sep 2026

최근 향후 성장 업데이트

분석 기사 • Nov 07

Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Last week, you might have seen that Spotify Technology S.A. ( NYSE:SPOT ) released its quarterly result to the market...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Sep 10

SPOT: Recurring Price Hikes And Firmer Margins Will Support Revaluation Potential

Spotify's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from $889.24 to $767.84 as analysts factor in slightly higher discount rates and a lower future P/E, partly offset by firmer margin expectations and views that AI related risks to the platform and its pricing power are limited. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify highlights a split view on AI risk and pricing power, but there is a clear cluster of bullish analysts who still see upside in the story despite a period of target cuts across the Street.

내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 03

SPOT: 2026 Price Hikes Will Support Margins Despite AI Concerns

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on Spotify to $649 from $662. This reflects a modest increase in the discount rate and slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and future P/E.

내러티브 업데이트 • Feb 17

SPOT: 2026 U.S. Price Hike Will Offset Rising AI Subscription Risk

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Spotify, reflected in a lower fair value estimate of $662.14 from $733.44, as they factor in higher perceived AI related risk to paid streaming, modestly softer growth assumptions, a richer discount rate, and a more conservative future P/E multiple, despite higher projected profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify Technology points to a mixed but highly engaged analyst backdrop, with multiple firms revisiting their models around AI risk, pricing, and execution on product initiatives.

새로운 내러티브 • Feb 13

Spotify - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

️Business Overview Key Metrics Total: -1/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 17.56% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 10.87% +0 ⚠️ Last 5-Year ROIC: 4.68% -2 ❌ Estimated Cost of Capital: 7.71% (greater than ROIC) -1 ❌ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: +2.07% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 15.46% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: N/A +1 ✅ Estimated Debt Rating: A1 -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Despite its Narrow Moat rating by Morningstar, Spotify still shows an operating margin around ~15-20% and expanding. Its revenue and EPS growth is also solid between 10-15%.

분석 기사 • Feb 05

Spotify Technology S.A.'s (NYSE:SPOT) 26% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings

The Spotify Technology S.A. ( NYSE:SPOT ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a...

내러티브 업데이트 • Feb 03

SPOT: Free Tier Funnel And 2026 U.S. Price Hike Will Support Leadership

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Spotify, with our fair value estimate easing from US$748.60 to about US$733.44. This reflects slightly lower assumed future P/E multiples, which more than offset modestly higher long term revenue growth and profit margin expectations following a wave of recent target cuts and rating changes across the Street.

내러티브 업데이트 • Jan 20

SPOT: Future Price Increases And Margin Goals Will Drive Rerating Potential

Analysts have trimmed their Spotify Technology price targets, with our fair value estimate moving from US$913.70 to US$889.24. They are factoring in slightly softer margin assumptions, modestly lower growth estimates, and a higher future P/E, while still referencing potential benefits from pricing changes and longer term margin goals.

내러티브 업데이트 • Jan 06

SPOT: Pricing Power And AI Collaboration Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price targets for Spotify higher, citing a supportive mix of pricing power, a constructive view on music industry economics, and a willingness to underwrite a richer future P/E multiple of around 38.7x. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Spotify reflects a mix of enthusiasm for the business model and pricing potential alongside debate over how much optimism is already reflected in the share price.

내러티브 업데이트 • Dec 14

SPOT: Pricing Power And AI Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook

Our fair value estimate for Spotify Technology has been raised by about $37 to roughly $569 per share, as analysts grow more confident in accelerating revenue growth, expanding profit margins, and the earnings power implied by recent price target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Spotify highlights a mix of optimism around pricing power, product innovation, and artificial intelligence, alongside a more measured tone on valuation and execution risk.

내러티브 업데이트 • Nov 18

SPOT: User Gains From Free Tier Funnel Will Drive Competitive Leadership

Spotify’s analyst price target has been modestly increased from approximately $736 to $749, as analysts point to rising expectations for revenue growth and margin expansion. This outlook is fueled by upcoming price increases and ongoing product enhancements.

분석 기사 • Nov 11

We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Even though Spotify Technology S.A. ( NYSE:SPOT ) posted strong earnings, investors appeared to be underwhelmed. We...

분석 기사 • Nov 07

Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Last week, you might have seen that Spotify Technology S.A. ( NYSE:SPOT ) released its quarterly result to the market...

내러티브 업데이트 • Nov 01

SPOT: Upcoming Price Increases And Product Changes Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Spotify Technology by approximately $10 to $736. They cite a balanced outlook in light of evolving industry pricing opportunities and the company's recent financial performance trends.

내러티브 업데이트 • Oct 17

Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment

Spotify’s consensus analyst price target has been adjusted slightly lower, from $747.78 to $746.42. This change reflects updated expectations around revenue growth and profit margins as analysts weigh recent price increases, user engagement momentum, and the outlook for cost management.

내러티브 업데이트 • Oct 03

Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment

Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Spotify Technology, adjusting the price target from $756 to $748. More balanced risk-reward expectations and moderated growth outlooks for key metrics offset recent model updates and price increases.

내러티브 업데이트 • Sep 17

Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment

Analysts have raised Spotify’s price targets, citing robust subscriber growth, improved product differentiation and engagement, and greater pricing power despite near-term cost headwinds, leading to a consensus Analyst Price Target increase from $739.83 to $756.18. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets on expectations of continued price increases in key markets and further upward revisions to long-term revenue and profit estimates.

Seeking Alpha • Apr 16

Spotify Is Executing Brilliantly, But The Stock Isn't A Buy Anymore (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Spotify's stock has surged 85.1% since my initial “cautious buy” rating, driven by better-than-expected company improvements and strong execution. Despite impressive growth, the reduced margin of safety now requires greater optimism for a favorable valuation, prompting a downgrade to “cautious hold”. Spotify has achieved significant milestones, including a +30% gross margin and +670 million MAUs, through strategic initiatives and cost management. Risks remain, such as dependency on record labels and increasing competition, making long-term growth visibility less clear and necessitating cautious optimism. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Mar 14

Spotify: The Road Ahead Is Tough, But It Is Positioned Well

Summary Spotify continues to lead in music streaming with strong growth, innovative features, and a dominant market position, despite recent stock price declines. The company achieved record Q4 results and profitability in 2024, but faces challenges in further margin expansion and increased competition from YouTube. Future success hinges on maintaining efficiency, better monetizing emerging markets users, and significantly improving ads and video capabilities. Considering the challenges ahead, Spotify's Valuation is a bit too high at 46 times forward earnings, making it a 'Hold'. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 14

Spotify: Just Getting Started

Summary The monetization process is just getting started. Spotify may have multiple years of high earnings growth and increasing FCF. Growing premium subscribers with higher ARPU is the main earnings driver, boosting EBITDA and free cash flow and enhancing shareholder value. Spotify is beginning to gain pricing power from music labels that adds upside risk to its monetization story. The stock's valuation is transitioning to higher EPS-based multiples, I target a price of $770 by YE26. Competition from Amazon and Apple poses a risk, but Spotify's monetization strategy and profitability shift support a continued buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 05

Spotify Q4: Profitability Is Only Getting Better

Summary Spotify released its Q4 earnings on 2/4, impressing the market. This was mostly off the back of growing premium subscribers from Q4 2024, and continued growth into Q1 2025. MAUs are up, revenue is up, and expenses are down; Spotify is in a great position and has finally turned a profit for a full year. Compound this with its high valuation, and you have a set-up for success or failure depending on future earnings and if growth can maintain its trajectory. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

새로운 내러티브 • Feb 05

Narrative update from Michael Paige

Retain Dominant Market Share Position In Paid Music StreamingThis assumptions appears to be tracking well and ahead of my conservative estimates. I estimated 8% growth per year in MAU and premium subs

Seeking Alpha • Jan 22

Spotify Q4 Preview: Changing Creator Incentives

Summary Spotify's shares have surged 31.99% since October, driven by AI optimization and enhanced user experiences, boosting demand and premium subscriptions. The new creator incentive program, offering 50% ad revenue share, is a game changer, attracting more high-quality content to Spotify. Despite market pessimism, I believe Spotify's Q4 earnings will exceed expectations due to these creator innovations and strong user engagement metrics. SPOT's strong free cash flow growth and competitive creator incentives position it for significant upside, making it a strong buy heading into Q4 earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

Spotify: The Operational Leverage Run Is Close To Being Over, What's Next?

Summary Spotify emerged stronger from the 2022 market selloff, with its stock up over 6x since December 2022 due to margin expansion and consistent growth. Key growth drivers included aggressive cost-cutting, gaining leverage over music labels, and diversifying into podcasts and audiobooks. Future growth will depend on emerging markets and advertising, though these come with lower ARPU and more uncertainty. Spotify's operational leverage has limits, and the company faces challenges in maintaining the margin expansion story while making strides into video and competing with YouTube. The current valuation and consensus estimates don't reflect the higher uncertainty, leading to a 'Hold' rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Dec 15

Spotify: My Top Investment Pick For 2025

Summary I recommend a "Strong Buy" for Spotify as I highlight robust growth, pricing power, and profitability improvements. Spotify's Q3 results were stellar, with gross margins at 31.1%, revenue up 19% YoY, and free cash flow soaring 230% to $711 million. The platform's scalable, low-cost model, AI-driven personalization, and new subscription tiers ensure sustained growth and high margins without significant overhead. Looking ahead, Spotify's video podcast push, new "Superfan" tier, and enhanced ad tools will drive further revenue and margin gains, with analysts projecting €3.6 billion in FCF by 2026. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Dec 08

From $15 Billion To $100 Billion: Lessons From Our Spotify Investment

Summary Spotify's stock surged from $132 to $500 per share since its 2018 IPO, delivering a 23% annualized return over 6.5 years. Despite past doubts about its profitability, Spotify's recent improvements in gross margins and cost discipline have renewed optimism in its long-term potential. The company's strategic shift towards advertising and price increases has driven revenue growth and positioned it for future profitability. Adopting a principle of letting winners naturally concentrate in the portfolio has proven effective, with Spotify now representing 15% of our holdings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

새로운 내러티브 • Nov 24

Expanding Audiobook Offerings And AI Innovation Propel Dynamic Growth Trajectory

Expansion into audiobooks and AI-enhanced music discovery are set to boost user engagement and revenue growth.

이익 및 매출 성장 예측

NYSE:SPOT - 애널리스트 향후 추정치 및 과거 재무 데이터 (EUR Millions)
날짜	매출	이익	자유현금흐름	영업현금흐름	평균 애널리스트 수
12/31/2028	25,399	4,034	4,720	4,955	26
12/31/2027	22,332	3,236	4,074	4,073	36
12/31/2026	19,539	2,558	3,376	3,378	34
6/30/2026	18,113	3,339	3,267	3,337	N/A
3/31/2026	17,529	2,708	3,170	3,230	N/A
12/31/2025	17,186	2,212	2,872	2,933	N/A
9/30/2025	16,897	1,405	2,915	2,960	N/A
6/30/2025	16,613	806	2,820	2,846	N/A
3/31/2025	16,227	1,166	2,611	2,629	N/A
12/31/2024	15,673	1,138	2,284	2,301	N/A
9/30/2024	15,102	701	1,803	1,815	N/A
6/30/2024	14,471	466	1,302	1,311	N/A
3/31/2024	13,841	-110	823	832	N/A
12/31/2023	13,247	-532	674	680	N/A
9/30/2023	12,742	-732	203	213	N/A
6/30/2023	12,421	-963	28	42	N/A
3/31/2023	12,108	-786	51	68	N/A
12/31/2022	11,727	-430	21	46	N/A
9/30/2022	11,250	-199	199	235	N/A
6/30/2022	10,715	-31	262	318	N/A
3/31/2022	10,182	74	262	333	N/A
12/31/2021	9,668	-34	276	361	N/A
9/30/2021	9,147	-120	245	349	N/A
6/30/2021	8,621	-223	252	348	N/A
3/31/2021	8,179	-559	243	333	N/A
12/31/2020	7,880	-581	181	259	N/A
9/30/2020	7,567	-665	280	355	N/A
6/30/2020	7,323	-323	220	304	N/A
3/31/2020	7,101	-43	N/A	355	N/A
12/31/2019	6,764	-186	N/A	573	N/A
9/30/2019	6,404	465	N/A	520	N/A
6/30/2019	6,025	267	N/A	529	N/A
3/31/2019	5,631	-51	N/A	469	N/A
12/31/2018	5,259	-78	N/A	344	N/A
9/30/2018	4,913	-1,116	N/A	289	N/A
6/30/2018	4,593	-1,437	N/A	128	N/A
3/31/2018	4,327	-1,231	N/A	170	N/A
12/31/2017	4,090	-1,235	N/A	179	N/A
12/31/2016	2,952	-539	N/A	101	N/A
1/1/2016	1,940	-230	N/A	-38	N/A

애널리스트 향후 성장 전망

수입 대 저축률: SPOT 의 연간 예상 수익 증가율(10.5%)이 saving rate(3.7%)보다 높습니다.

수익 vs 시장: SPOT 의 연간 수익(10.5%)이 US 시장(17.2%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.

고성장 수익: SPOT 의 수입은 증가할 것으로 예상되지만 상당히 증가하지는 않을 것입니다.

수익 대 시장: SPOT 의 수익(연간 11.9%)이 US 시장(연간 13.4%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.

고성장 매출: SPOT 의 수익(연간 11.9%)은 연간 20%보다 느리게 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

주당순이익 성장 예측

향후 자기자본이익률

미래 ROE: SPOT의 자본 수익률은 3년 후 23.3%로 높을 것으로 예상됩니다.

성장 기업 찾아보기

기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태

데이터	최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간)
기업 분석	2026/09/13 02:42
종가	2026/09/11 00:00
수익	2026/06/30
연간 수익	2025/12/31

데이터 소스

당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.

패키지	데이터	기간	미국 소스 예시 ^*
기업 재무제표	10년	손익계산서 현금흐름표 대차대조표	SEC 양식 10-K SEC 양식 10-Q
분석가 컨센서스 추정치	+3년	재무 예측 분석가 목표주가	분석가 리서치 보고서 Blue Matrix
시장 가격	30년	주가 배당, 분할 및 기타 조치	ICE 시장 데이터 SEC 양식 S-1
지분 구조	10년	주요 주주 내부자 거래	SEC 양식 4 SEC 양식 13D
경영진	10년	리더십 팀 이사회	SEC 양식 10-K SEC 양식 DEF 14A
주요 개발	10년	회사 공시	SEC 양식 8-K

^* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.

별도로 명시되지 않는 한 모든 재무 데이터는 연간 기간을 기준으로 하지만 분기별로 업데이트됩니다. 이를 TTM(최근 12개월) 또는 LTM(지난 12개월) 데이터라고 합니다. 자세히 알아보기.

분석 모델 및 스노우플레이크

이 보고서를 생성하는 데 사용된 분석 모델의 세부 정보는 당사의 GitHub 페이지에서 확인하실 수 있습니다. 또한 보고서 사용 방법에 대한 가이드와 YouTube 튜토리얼도 제공하고 있습니다.

Simply Wall St 분석 모델을 설계하고 구축한 에 대해 알아보세요.

산업 및 섹터 지표

산업 및 섹터 지표는 Simply Wall St가 6시간마다 계산하며, 프로세스에 대한 자세한 내용은 Github에서 확인할 수 있습니다.

분석가 소스

Spotify Technology S.A.는 64명의 분석가가 다루고 있습니다. 이 중 36명의 분석가가 우리 보고서에 입력 데이터로 사용되는 매출 또는 수익 추정치를 제출했습니다. 분석가의 제출 자료는 하루 종일 업데이트됩니다.

분석가	기관
Samuel Lourensz	Arete Research Services LLP
Richard Kramer	Arete Research Services LLP
William Noel Milner	Arete Research Services LLP

Spotify Technology 향후 성장

Future 기준 점검 2/6

핵심 정보

최근 향후 성장 업데이트

Spotify Technology S.A. Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter of 2026

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 34%

Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 34%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

Recent updates

Spotify Still Looks Like A Hold Despite Better Fundamentals

Now 22% undervalued

Spotify Technology S.A. Announces Resignation of Heidi O'Neill from Board of Directors, Effective September 3, 2026

Spotify Expands Repurchase Program With Additional $1.5 Billion Authorization

Chief Public Affairs Officer recently sold US$1.1m worth of stock

Chief Public Affairs Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

SPOT: AI Monetization Tests And Mixed Outlook Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile

Co-CEO & Director exercised options and sold US$7.4m worth of stock

Spotify Hits 300 Million Premium Subscribers and Unveils Artist-Approved AI Remix Tool

Second quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

SPOT: AI Roadmap And Premium Add Ons Will Support Future Margins

Spotify Removes Over 500,000 Fake Streams Tied to $3 Million Prediction Market Scheme

Co-CEO & Director exercised options and sold US$6.8m worth of stock

Spotify Uncovers 500,000 Fake Streams After $3 Million Betting Linked Manipulation

SPOT: AI Licensing And Premium Add Ons Will Drive Future Margins

Spotify Technology S.A. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 04, 2026

Spotify Stock Gains New Appeal With AI-Driven Podcast Ad Targeting and Verification Tools

SPOT: AI Personalization And Pricing Tests Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile

Spotify Premium Subscribers Reach 293 Million as Stock Performance and Valuation Remain Divided

Spotify Ltd Announces Appointment of Aditi Shorewal to Head of PR & Communications

SPOT: AI Partnerships And Premium Add Ons Will Drive Future Margin Expansion

Co-Founder & Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19%

SPOT: Price Increases And AI Investments Will Support Future Margin Expansion

Independent Director exercised options to buy US$2.4m worth of stock.

SPOT: Future Margin Expansion Will Rely On Recurring Price Hikes

First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

SPOT: 2026 Price Hikes And AI Features Will Support Margins

SPOT: Recurring Price Increases Will Support Future Margin Expansion Potential

Spotify Technology S.A. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 28, 2026

SPOT: Recurring Price Hikes And Firmer Margins Will Support Revaluation Potential

Chief Public Affairs Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Spotify Technology S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 15, 2026

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%

SPOT: 2026 Price Hikes Will Support Margins Despite AI Concerns

SPOT: 2026 U.S. Price Hike Will Offset Rising AI Subscription Risk

Spotify - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Spotify Technology S.A. Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter of 2026

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18%

Spotify Technology S.A.'s (NYSE:SPOT) 26% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings

SPOT: Free Tier Funnel And 2026 U.S. Price Hike Will Support Leadership

SPOT: Future Price Increases And Margin Goals Will Drive Rerating Potential

SPOT: Pricing Power And AI Collaboration Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook

Spotify Technology S.A. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 10, 2026

SPOT: Pricing Power And AI Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook

Spotify Technology S.A. Announces Election of Alex Norström and Gustav Söderström as Directors, Effective January 1, 2026

Spotify Appoints Tanmaya Trivedi as Director of Sales

SPOT: User Gains From Free Tier Funnel Will Drive Competitive Leadership

We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 34%

Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

RBX, A Founding Father of West Coast Hip-Hop, Files A Class Action Lawsuit Against Spotify Concerning Alleged Streaming Fraud

Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

SPOT: Upcoming Price Increases And Product Changes Will Drive Future Upside

Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment

Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment

Spotify Technology S.A. Announces Leadership Changes, Effective January 1, 2026

Spotify Technology S.A. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 04, 2025

Generative AI And Personalization Will Shape Future Entertainment

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 34%

Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Spotify Technology S.A. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 29, 2025

Chief Public Affairs Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Founder notifies of intention to sell stock

First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Founder notifies of intention to sell stock

Spotify Is Executing Brilliantly, But The Stock Isn't A Buy Anymore (Rating Downgrade)