Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: €0.11 (vs €0.50 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: €0.11 (down from €0.50 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: €478.4m (down 34% from 1Q 2025). Net income: €8.60m (down 78% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 5.4% in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • May 05
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.2x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.2% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Feb 17
Price target increased by 13% to €29.37 Up from €26.07, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 24% above last closing price of €23.60. Stock is up 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.05 for next year compared to €2.91 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 14
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 21% to €21.80. The fair value is estimated to be €27.72, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 16%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Dec 19
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Portuguese stocks, typically moving 2.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (64% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (2.4% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.0% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 19
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to €20.55, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Forestry industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 93% over the past three years. 공시 • Dec 19
Cementos Molins, S.A. (BDM:CMO) agreed to acquire SECIL - Companhia Geral de Cal e Cimento, S.A. from Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A. (ENXTLS:SEM) in a transaction valued at €1.4 billion. Cementos Molins, S.A. (BDM:CMO) agreed to acquire SECIL - Companhia Geral de Cal e Cimento, S.A. from Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A. (ENXTLS:SEM) in a transaction valued at €1.4 billion on December 19, 2025. A cash consideration will be paid by Cementos Molins, S.A. As part of consideration, an undisclosed value is paid towards common equity of SECIL - Companhia Geral de Cal e Cimento, S.A. Molins will finance the Transaction with a combination of available cash and funds from a syndicated credit agreement and a bond issuance. The transaction is expected to be accretive.
J.P. Morgan Espana S.A. acted as financial advisor for Cementos Molins, S.A. KPMG S.A. acted as financial advisor for Cementos Molins, S.A. Uría Menéndez Abogados, S.L.P. acted as legal advisor for Cementos Molins, S.A. Deloitte Auditores, S.L. acted as due diligence provider for Cementos Molins, S.A. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €2.96b to €2.87b. EPS estimate also fell from €2.44 per share to €2.09 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 3.7% next year vs 21% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €26.07. Share price fell 7.4% to €16.32 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Oct 08
Price target decreased by 7.1% to €26.30 Down from €28.30, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 44% above last closing price of €18.30. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.44 for next year compared to €2.91 last year. New Risk • Aug 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 6.7% Last year net profit margin: 9.6% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (62% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.7% net profit margin). New Risk • Jul 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (62% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. New Risk • Jul 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.9% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.9% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (62% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Declared Dividend • Jun 02
Dividend of €0.63 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of €0.63. Ex-date: 9th June 2025 Payment date: 11th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (20% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.3% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 13% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 75% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • May 19
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: €0.50 (vs €0.60 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: €0.50 (down from €0.60 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: €728.1m (up 1.6% from 1Q 2024). Net income: €39.6m (down 18% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.4% (down from 6.7% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. 공시 • May 07
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., Annual General Meeting, May 29, 2025 Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., Annual General Meeting, May 29, 2025. Location: hotel ritz, rua rodrigo da fonseca 88, lisbon Portugal Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: €2.91 (vs €3.06 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: €2.91 (down from €3.06 in FY 2023). Revenue: €2.85b (up 5.1% from FY 2023). Net income: €232.7m (down 4.8% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.2% (down from 9.0% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.8% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Dec 07
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.62 (vs €0.75 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.62 (down from €0.75 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: €702.5m (up 3.4% from 3Q 2023). Net income: €49.7m (down 17% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.1% (down from 8.8% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year. New Risk • Nov 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (67% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Nov 05
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.62 (vs €0.75 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.62 (down from €0.75 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: €697.4m (up 2.7% from 3Q 2023). Net income: €49.7m (down 17% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.1% (down from 8.8% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year. New Risk • Nov 03
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (58% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €2.97b to €2.87b. EPS estimate also fell from €3.20 per share to €2.88 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 9.6% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €29.90. Share price was steady at €14.42 over the past week. New Risk • Jul 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (51% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Jul 29
Second quarter 2024 earnings released Second quarter 2024 results: Revenue: €723.3m (up 7.9% from 2Q 2023). Net income: €83.6m (up 65% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 12% (up from 7.6% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Price Target Changed • Jun 26
Price target increased by 8.6% to €29.05 Up from €26.75, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 105% above last closing price of €14.16. Stock is up 9.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.82 for next year compared to €3.06 last year. Declared Dividend • May 30
Dividend of €0.63 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of €0.63. Ex-date: 10th June 2024 Payment date: 12th June 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (18% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (15% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 23% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 80% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • May 29
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.71 (vs €0.71 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.71 (down from €0.71 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: €715.2m (up 5.7% from 1Q 2023). Net income: €48.2m (down 16% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.7% (down from 8.4% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jan 23
Price target increased by 13% to €25.75 Up from €22.75, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 82% above last closing price of €14.12. Stock is up 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.65 for next year compared to €3.84 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Third quarter 2023 earnings released Third quarter 2023 results: Revenue: €677.7m (down 20% from 3Q 2022). Net income: €59.6m (down 34% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 8.8% (down from 11% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to grow by 1.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 44% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 12
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €2.56b to €2.64b. EPS estimate increased from €2.11 to €2.52 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 38% next year vs 33% decline forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €22.75. Share price was steady at €13.50 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.63 (vs €1.25 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.63 (down from €1.25 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: €669.1m (down 19% from 2Q 2022). Net income: €50.6m (down 49% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.6% (down from 12% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jul 20
Price target increased by 11% to €22.40 Up from €20.20, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 70% above last closing price of €13.14. Stock is down 4.5% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.98 for next year compared to €3.84 last year. Reported Earnings • May 23
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.71 (vs €0.53 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.71 (up from €0.53 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: €675.2m (up 5.0% from 1Q 2022). Net income: €57.0m (up 36% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 8.4% (up from 6.5% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 48% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Apr 20
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: €3.85 (vs €2.48 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: €3.85 (up from €2.48 in FY 2021). Revenue: €3.13b (up 46% from FY 2021). Net income: €307.1m (up 55% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 9.8% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue is expected to decline by 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to grow by 2.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: €3.85 (vs €2.48 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: €3.85 (up from €2.48 in FY 2021). Revenue: €3.12b (up 46% from FY 2021). Net income: €307.1m (up 55% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 9.8% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to decline by 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Dec 09
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €1.13 (vs €0.61 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: €1.13 (up from €0.61 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €848.1m (up 56% from 3Q 2021). Net income: €89.9m (up 83% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 9.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €22.80 Down from €24.60, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 65% above last closing price of €13.86. Stock is up 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.64 for next year compared to €2.48 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. 6 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (8 non-independent directors). Independent Non Executive Director Carlos Eduardo Alves was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Price Target Changed • Nov 10
Price target decreased to €22.80 Down from €24.70, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 68% above last closing price of €13.54. Stock is up 9.4% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.64 for next year compared to €2.48 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €1.13 (vs €0.61 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: €1.13 (up from €0.61 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €846.6m (up 56% from 3Q 2021). Net income: €89.9m (up 83% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 9.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Forestry industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from €2.89b to €3.01b. EPS estimate increased from €2.99 to €3.45 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 15% next year vs 6.5% decline forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal. Consensus price target up from €24.10 to €24.70. Share price was steady at €12.22 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 03
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €1.25 (vs €0.60 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: €1.25 (up from €0.60 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: €823.9m (up 62% from 2Q 2021). Net income: €99.4m (up 109% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 12% (up from 9.3% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.1%, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the industry in Portugal. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 22
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from €2.88b to €2.94b. EPS estimate increased from €2.72 to €3.03 per share. Net income forecast to grow 6.2% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal. Consensus price target of €24.10 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at €13.82 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 29
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.53 (up from €0.32 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: €641.8m (up 38% from 1Q 2021). Net income: €42.0m (up 65% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 6.5% (up from 5.5% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 42%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 15%, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the industry in Portugal. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 14
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 25% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from €2.22b to €2.77b. EPS estimate increased from €1.44 to €2.37 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 2.6% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal . Consensus price target of €22.80 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at €13.30 over the past week. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 7 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (8 non-independent directors). Independent Non Executive Director Carlos Eduardo Alves was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Feb 19
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: €2.48 (up from €1.33 in FY 2020). Revenue: €2.13b (up 14% from FY 2020). Net income: €198.1m (up 86% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 9.3% (up from 5.7% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 69%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.8%, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the industry in Portugal. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jan 28
Price target increased to €21.30 Up from €17.75, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 79% above last closing price of €11.88. Stock is up 36% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.71 for next year compared to €1.33 last year. Reported Earnings • Dec 03
Third quarter 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2021 results: EPS: €0.61 (up from €0.53 in 3Q 2020). Revenue: €543.2m (up 7.4% from 3Q 2020). Net income: €49.1m (up 16% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.0% (up from 8.4% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 69%. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 69%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 7.1%, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the industry in Portugal. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Reported Earnings • Oct 07
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.60 (vs €0.16 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €510.1m (up 24% from 2Q 2020). Net income: €47.7m (up 265% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.3% (up from 3.2% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.60 (vs €0.16 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €507.7m (up 17% from 2Q 2020). Net income: €47.7m (up 265% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.4% (up from 3.0% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 17% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 23
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from €0.93 to €1.44. Revenue forecast steady at €1.94b. Net income forecast to shrink 1.9% next year vs 57% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Portugal . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €17.75. Share price rose 2.8% to €11.60 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jun 02
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.32 (vs €0.21 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a decent first quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €482.9m (down 6.5% from 1Q 2020). Net income: €25.4m (up 48% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 5.3% (up from 3.3% in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Reported Earnings • Apr 17
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €1.33 (vs €1.54 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €1.87b (down 16% from FY 2019). Net income: €106.6m (down 14% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.7% (up from 5.6% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 13% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 19
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 29% share price gain to €12.20, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 9.1x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 7.1x. This compares to an average P/E of 18x in the Forestry industry in Europe. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 31%. 
