Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ALRM 株式レポート

時価総額：US$2.2b

Alarm.com Holdings 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /16

Alarm.com Holdings利益と収益がそれぞれ年間6.5%と4.5%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に14.8% 0.2%なると予測されています。

主要情報

6.5%

収益成長率

0.22%

EPS成長率

Software 収益成長19.3%
収益成長率4.5%
将来の株主資本利益率14.80%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日20 Apr 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

ナラティブ更新 • Apr 26

ALRM: AI Disruption Concerns Will Test But Not Break Future Earnings Power

Alarm.com Holdings' latest analyst price targets have shifted lower, with recent cuts such as $56 to $50 and $55 to $40 reflecting updated models after the Q4 report and wider concerns about software sector competitive moats in light of rapid AI adoption. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alarm.com highlights a mix of company specific considerations and broader sector questions, with price targets reset to $50 and $40 after the Q4 report and a relook at vertical software valuations.
ナラティブ更新 • Apr 10

ALRM: AI Proliferation And Reset Expectations Will Shape Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have lowered Alarm.com Holdings' average price target significantly. Recent revisions to $50 and $40 reflect updated Q4 modeling and broader concerns about vertical software valuations and competitive moats as AI adoption accelerates.
ナラティブ更新 • Mar 27

ALRM: AI Proliferation And Fair Value Outlook Will Shape Sector Multiple

Alarm.com Holdings' analyst price targets have been reset lower, with recent cuts to $50 and $40. These changes reflect updated models after the Q4 report and broader concern from analysts about vertical software valuations and the impact of rapid AI adoption on competitive moats.
ナラティブ更新 • Mar 12

ALRM: Future Earnings Power Will Be Tested By AI Moat Concerns

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alarm.com Holdings to $58.00 from $68.71, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following recent price target cuts from $56 to $50 and from $55 to $40 in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a mix of caution and recalibration around Alarm.com Holdings, with price targets reset following the latest Q4 report and broader reassessments in software valuations.
ナラティブ更新 • Feb 25

ALRM: AI Moat Uncertainty Will Pressure Vertical Software Multiple

Narrative Update: Alarm.com Holdings Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alarm.com Holdings to $40 from $55, pointing to updated sector views, revised P/E assumptions, and recent research that includes reduced price targets of $40 and $50 following the latest Q4 report. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on Alarm.com Holdings, with multiple bearish analysts trimming price targets after the latest Q4 report and sector review.
ナラティブ更新 • Feb 11

ALRM: Expanding Connected Security Offerings Will Support Constructive Long Term Outlook

Analysts have maintained their price target for Alarm.com Holdings at $55.00, noting that only minor adjustments to assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E were made, which do not materially change their overall view. What's in the News Alarm.com released a low cost Video Intercom Mobile Directory that replaces traditional intercom hardware with a mobile based, QR code enabled visitor management system for multi-tenant residential and commercial properties, using the company’s existing professionally installed and monitored infrastructure (Key Developments).
分析記事 • Feb 10

Is Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
ナラティブ更新 • Jan 27

ALRM: Expanding Security Platform And Disciplined Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts kept their price target for Alarm.com Holdings steady at US$55.00, citing only small model adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions rather than any major change in the outlook. What's in the News Launched the ADC-V730, the company's first Wi-Fi spotlight camera.
ナラティブ更新 • Jan 11

ALRM: Expanding Security Platform And Steady Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Alarm.com Holdings at $55.00. This reflects only slight adjustments in inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, rather than a change in their overall price view.
分析記事 • Jan 08

Is There Now An Opportunity In Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price...
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 27

ALRM: Expanded Security Offerings And Buybacks Will Support Steady Outlook

Narrative Update Analysts have maintained their price target for Alarm.com Holdings at 55.00 dollars, with only marginal model refinements to discount rates, revenue growth, profit margin, and future valuation multiples. These refinements support a steady outlook rather than a material reassessment of the company’s fair value.
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 12

ALRM: Product Expansion And Share Buybacks Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Alarm.com Holdings by 10.0 percent, from 50 dollars to 55 dollars, citing slightly higher long term profit margin and valuation assumptions despite somewhat slower projected revenue growth. What's in the News Launched a low cost Video Intercom Mobile Directory that modernizes multi tenant visitor management with QR code access, mobile video calling, and remote door control, reducing the need for in unit hardware (Key Developments).
分析記事 • Oct 08

Is Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Using Too Much Debt?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
分析記事 • Jul 17

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price...
分析記事 • Jul 04

Some Investors May Be Worried About Alarm.com Holdings' (NASDAQ:ALRM) Returns On Capital

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll...
Seeking Alpha • Jun 24

Alarm.com Has Twin Challenges Of Sustainable Growth And Tariff Pricing Pass-Through

Summary Alarm.com delivered better-than-expected Q1 2025 results, but US residential growth remains challenged and tariff uncertainties will likely pressure hardware margins. SaaS and international segments are driving higher margins and growth, yet the sustainability of these trends is still uncertain for the second half of 2025. ALRM's capital allocation has been conservative, with opportunistic buybacks offsetting stock-based compensation, but management's future plans remain unclear. I maintain a neutral Hold rating until we see more durable international/commercial growth and the resolution of tariff risks impacting hardware profitability. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Jun 14

Is There An Opportunity With Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) 24% Undervaluation?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Alarm.com Holdings fair value estimate is US$74.34 Alarm.com...
分析記事 • May 29

Most Shareholders Will Probably Agree With Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) CEO Compensation

Key Insights Alarm.com Holdings to hold its Annual General Meeting on 4th of June Salary of US$238.3k is part of CEO...
分析記事 • May 13

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Shareholders Might Be Looking For Exit

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.2x Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) may be sending bearish...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 21

Alarm.com: Strong Financials And Solid Results, But Rising Market Competition Poses Risks

Summary Alarm.com Holdings is a market leader in cloud-based IoT security solutions, with strong financials and a revenue CAGR of 11.05% from FY20 to FY24. Despite growth, Alarm faces challenges from tech giants like Google and Amazon, and high revenue concentration from top ten customers. Management's growth strategy focuses on commercial surveillance, smart energy, and international expansion, but ADT's partnership with Google poses significant risks. A DCF analysis indicates a potential downside of over 10%, leading to a "Hold" rating due to rising competition and valuation concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Apr 16

What Does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Share Price Indicate?

While Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of...
分析記事 • Mar 21

Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
分析記事 • Mar 04

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)

Key Insights The projected fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is US$64.51 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...
分析記事 • Feb 19

These 4 Measures Indicate That Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Using Debt Safely

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...
分析記事 • Dec 19

Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to...
分析記事 • Dec 05

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...
分析記事 • Nov 26

Calculating The Fair Value Of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)

Key Insights The projected fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is US$57.23 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...
分析記事 • Nov 14

We Think Alarm.com Holdings' (NASDAQ:ALRM) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. We...
分析記事 • Nov 13

These 4 Measures Indicate That Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Is Using Debt Safely

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
分析記事 • Nov 01

Is There Now An Opportunity In Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price...
Seeking Alpha • Sep 11

Alarm.com: There Are Likely Better Entry Points On The Horizon

Summary Alarm.com is expanding internationally and into commercial markets, but its EPS and revenue growth rates are currently a contraction from historical levels. Despite a contraction in top-line and bottom-line growth, its PE and PS ratios have not contracted enough. Therefore, I consider the stock to have a vulnerable valuation at the moment. I expect we could see a near-term stock price decline, but I believe the consensus estimates could begin to expand long-term as management consolidates its position in new markets. My conclusion is that there are better entry points for buying into Alarm.com, but it is certainly a strong company with robust long-term prospects if management continues to operate well. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Sep 09

There's Reason For Concern Over Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALRM) Price

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may...
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新しいナラティブ • Sep 05

Cloud Expansion And Generative AI Propel Growth Amid Market And Profit Margin Challenges

Expansion through cloud-based solutions and generative AI adoption indicates growth in the commercial segment and operational efficiency.
分析記事 • Aug 21

Calculating The Fair Value Of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)

Key Insights The projected fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is US$63.87 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...
分析記事 • Aug 06

Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want...
分析記事 • Jul 25

Is Now The Time To Put Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) On Your Watchlist?

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...
分析記事 • Jul 12

Why Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) Could Be Worth Watching

While Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 09

Alarm.com Holdings: Strong Partnerships To Meet Demand For Security

Summary ALRM benefits from strong partnerships with top home security provider in US and 12,000 partners, giving it competitive advantage. Huge addressable market for security solutions, with TAM of ~$52 billion/year. ALRM's B2B2C model, partnerships with ADT and 12,000 service providers, and focus on innovation position it for long-term growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Jun 10

Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) Could Easily Take On More Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
分析記事 • May 02

Earnings Not Telling The Story For Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 41.4x Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALRM ) may be sending very bearish...

業績と収益の成長予測

NasdaqGS:ALRM - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/20281,155N/AN/AN/A1
12/31/20271,1091512232346
12/31/20261,0611342122206
12/31/20251,011133136153N/A
9/30/2025992128153174N/A
6/30/2025976130161180N/A
3/31/2025955128164181N/A
12/31/2024940124193206N/A
9/30/2024924125178190N/A
6/30/2024905108165176N/A
3/31/202489590174189N/A
12/31/202388281122136N/A
9/30/202386468118131N/A
6/30/2023858676678N/A
3/31/2023847623867N/A
12/31/2022843562857N/A
9/30/202283047842N/A
6/30/2022806433670N/A
3/31/2022782475468N/A
12/31/20217495288103N/A
9/30/202171959104119N/A
6/30/2021686828399N/A
3/31/20216398493110N/A
12/31/20206187882102N/A
9/30/2020593756690N/A
6/30/2020562574772N/A
3/31/2020542533761N/A
12/31/2019502542747N/A
9/30/201947348N/A50N/A
6/30/201945723N/A68N/A
3/31/201944020N/A56N/A
12/31/201842022N/A61N/A
9/30/201839814N/A54N/A
6/30/201837637N/A48N/A
3/31/201835736N/A48N/A
12/31/201733929N/A57N/A
9/30/201732032N/A50N/A
6/30/201729819N/A39N/A
3/31/201727611N/A28N/A
12/31/201626110N/A23N/A
9/30/201624810N/A17N/A
6/30/201623411N/A27N/A
3/31/2016222-8N/A31N/A
12/31/2015209-7N/A28N/A
9/30/2015198-10N/A30N/A
6/30/2015186-13N/A17N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: ALRMの予測収益成長率 (年間6.5% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: ALRMの収益 ( 6.5% ) US市場 ( 16.6% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高成長収益: ALRMの収益は増加すると予測されていますが、大幅には増加しません。

収益対市場: ALRMの収益 ( 4.5% ) US市場 ( 11.5% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高い収益成長: ALRMの収益 ( 4.5% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: ALRMの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 14.8 %)。

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/07 18:34
終値2026/05/07 00:00
収益2025/12/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 6 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。10

アナリスト機関
Saket KaliaBarclays
Adam HotchkissGoldman Sachs
Samad SamanaJefferies LLC