Carvana Co.

NYSE:CVNA 株式レポート

時価総額：US$74.1b

Carvana 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /46

Carvana利益と収益がそれぞれ年間17.5%と18.3%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に33% 10.9%なると予測されています。

主要情報

17.5%

収益成長率

10.92%

EPS成長率

Specialty Retail 収益成長9.7%
収益成長率18.3%
将来の株主資本利益率33.02%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日13 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

ナラティブの更新 • May 04

CVNA: Higher Multiple Expectations Will Confront Ongoing Margin And Execution Risks

Carvana's analyst price target has been updated from $307.90 to $351.40. Analysts generally point to recent broad based target increases and a willingness to assign a higher future P/E multiple, despite more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 30

Carvana: In A Class Of Its Own With Furious Growth Rates

Summary Carvana is delivering rapid growth, outpacing the used car industry with ~40% unit sales growth and strong Q1 results. CVNA's reconditioning capacity and completed capex support scaling to 1.5 million units annually, with further real estate available for expansion to 3 million units (vs. ~750k run rate today). Despite a premium valuation—31.3x EV/FY26 EBITDA—the company's secular growth and margin expansion targets support a 'growth at a reasonable price' thesis. I reiterate a 'Buy' rating, citing the aggressive long-term targets: 3 million units sold annually at a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030-2035. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 20

CVNA: Retail Unit Expansion And Vertically Integrated Model Will Drive Future Upside

Carvana's updated analyst price target of $519, down from $600, reflects analysts factoring in recent Q4 profitability shortfalls and softer near term unit guidance, while still crediting the company's share gains, vertically integrated model, and defended position against AI disintermediation. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of price target trims after Carvana's Q4 report, but the tone across much of the Street still leans constructive.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 06

CVNA: Retail Unit Expansion And AI Resilience Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts now place Carvana's price target at $519, reflecting a recalibration that weighs recent target cuts tied to Q4 margin pressure and softer near term guidance, while also considering views that AI disintermediation risks are limited and that unit growth and market share gains remain central to the long term story. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed but generally constructive picture around Carvana, with price targets reset to reflect Q4 margin pressure and softer near term guidance, while still leaning on the long term growth story.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 23

CVNA: TAM Expansion And Defensible E Commerce Model Will Drive Future Execution Risk

Carvana's updated analyst price target has moved from about $481 to roughly $429 as analysts factor in ongoing retail unit and EBITDA headwinds, while still highlighting the company's defensible e commerce model and share gains in a fragmented used vehicle market as key supports to the long term story. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Carvana clusters around a common theme, with analysts trimming price targets while still pointing to a resilient e commerce model, share gains in used vehicles and potential upside from newer growth areas like new car sales.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 08

CVNA: Expanding New Car Footprint And AI Resilience Will Drive Future Upside

Carvana's analyst fair value estimate has been reset from $600 to $519, as analysts balance recent Q4 margin and EBITDA pressures against still supportive views on unit growth, share gains in used cars, and reduced concerns around AI driven disintermediation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a mix of valuation resets and continued confidence in Carvana's ability to grow units and defend its business model, even as Q4 EBITDA and margin pressures weigh on near term sentiment.
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 22

CVNA: Margin Pressures And Short Report Risks Will Confront Index Inclusion Benefits

Analysts have reduced our Carvana fair value estimate by about $22 to $307.90. This reflects recent target cuts that account for near-term margin pressure after Q4 misses, alongside ongoing expectations for scale, share gains in used vehicles, and improved profitability over time.
新しいナラティブ • Feb 16

The Vending Machine’s Paradox: Efficiency vs. Gravity

The February 18th Reckoning Carvana reports on Wednesday, February 18, 2026 , into a market that has treated it like a high-flying tech stock rather than a car dealer. The narrative for this quarter is "Peak Leverage." After a 2025 where CVNA was one of the top performers in the S&P 500, analysts are looking for more than just a "beat." They are looking for proof that Carvana can maintain its $7,000+ Gross Profit per Unit (GPU) while aggressively scaling volume.
分析記事 • Feb 13

Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) Shares Slammed 27% But Getting In Cheap Might Be Difficult Regardless

The Carvana Co. ( NYSE:CVNA ) share price has softened a substantial 27% over the previous 30 days, handing back much...
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 08

CVNA: Expanding Market Reach Into New Car Sales Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts nudged their price target for Carvana higher to $600 from $550, citing a mix of refined growth and profitability assumptions, modestly lower discount rates, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by recent research that highlights both expanding total addressable market opportunities and pushback against short seller claims. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Carvana has been active, with a mix of higher and lower price targets, rating changes, and fresh views on how the business model and total addressable market could influence valuation.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 25

CVNA: TAM Expansion And S&P 500 Inclusion Will Shape Future Execution Risk

Analysts have lifted their implied fair value for Carvana by about $62 per share to roughly $481, citing a higher assumed future P/E multiple and an improved profit margin outlook, supported by recent price target increases and total addressable market expansion themes across several research notes. Analyst Commentary Bullish and cautious views on Carvana are both coming through in recent research, and they often tie back to how much value analysts see in the company’s expansion efforts and its ability to execute against that opportunity.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 11

CVNA: Expanding Market Reach And Credit Improvements Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts maintained their Carvana fair value estimate at $550.00 and made slight adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions in response to higher price targets, expanding TAM expectations, and continued Buy and Overweight ratings across major firms. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are broadly constructive on Carvana, with a cluster of Buy and Overweight ratings paired with price targets that sit well above the current fair value estimate.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 27

CVNA: Improving Credit Performance Will Drive Future Upside In Shares

Analysts have raised their Carvana fair value estimate to $550 from $532.59, citing stronger expected revenue growth, modestly higher long term profit margins, and a premium future earnings multiple. This change is driven by growing conviction in the company’s competitive position and potential upside to current unit forecasts.
分析記事 • Dec 20

After Leaping 37% Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar

Carvana Co. ( NYSE:CVNA ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 37% after a shaky period beforehand. The...
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 13

CVNA: Unit Growth And Credit Performance Will Drive Shares Higher

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Carvana higher to about $533 from $500, citing a series of recent price target hikes and upgrades that emphasize sustained unit growth, an improving competitive position in used autos, and what they view as an attractive risk or reward profile despite macro and credit concerns. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts continue to frame the recent pullback in Carvana shares as a temporary pause in a longer growth trajectory, emphasizing that valuation still screens attractive relative to the company’s execution record and unit growth outlook.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 29

CVNA: Market Share Will Expand As Operational Execution Drives Consistent Outperformance

Carvana's analyst fair value target has been slightly reduced by less than $1 to $419.45, as analysts balance consistent growth and operational improvements with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and evolving industry dynamics. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research provides a diverse range of perspectives on Carvana, highlighting both optimism around the company's growth prospects and concerns linked to macroeconomic factors and credit exposure.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 15

CVNA: Operational Momentum And Credit Flexibility Will Support Market Share Gains

The analyst average price target for Carvana has been modestly reduced from $423.90 to $419.67. Analysts are weighing strong operational momentum and robust e-commerce platform performance against persistent macro and credit headwinds in the used vehicle market.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 31

CVNA: Operational Momentum And Market Share Gains Will Sustain Strong Outperformance

Carvana's analyst price target has been raised slightly to $423.90 from $423.60. Analysts cite sustained strong unit sales and resilience in consumer auto credit trends as supporting rationale.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 17

Online Vehicle Retail And AI Integration Will Redefine Future Markets

Analysts have modestly increased Carvana's fair value estimate from $421.95 to $423.60. They cite sustained fundamental strength, improved loss trends, and positive industry positioning in spite of ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 03

Online Vehicle Retail And AI Integration Will Redefine Future Markets

Carvana's analyst price target increased by $7.75 to $421.95, as analysts cite continued market share gains, stronger profitability, and resilient fundamentals despite evolving competitive dynamics in the digital auto retail sector. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports on Carvana highlight a mix of optimism regarding the company’s continued outperformance, as well as caution surrounding valuation and market challenges.
分析記事 • Jul 22

Is Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) Using Too Much Debt?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
分析記事 • Jul 02

Is Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) Worth US$338 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights Carvana's estimated fair value is US$254 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Carvana's US$338 share...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 25

Carvana: A Comeback Possible With Tariff Easing

Summary Carvana's stock price has declined ~6% YTD after a strong gain earlier in the year, mainly due to market concerns over tariffs and high valuations. Despite a negative market reaction, Carvana's 4Q24 earnings showed strong retail sales growth, improved efficiency, and a significant rise in adjusted EBITDA margin. Current 1Q25 trends indicate continued robust retail unit sales growth and increased inventory rising to meet more demand. Carvana's strong market position and operational infrastructure, coupled with potential easing of tariff concerns, present a compelling rebound opportunity at current valuation levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

業績と収益の成長予測

NYSE:CVNA - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/202842,4992,9191,6512,39310
12/31/202734,6032,2921,6171,84122
12/31/202627,7571,7527111,49521
3/31/202622,5221,441740911N/A
12/31/202520,3221,4078891,036N/A
9/30/202518,266629546666N/A
6/30/202516,274563615724N/A
3/31/202514,8443989491,049N/A
12/31/202413,673210827918N/A
9/30/202412,55017534619N/A
6/30/202411,668714738815N/A
3/31/202411,226638897970N/A
12/31/202310,771450716803N/A
9/30/202311,184-242173303N/A
6/30/202311,797-1,307-595-394N/A
3/31/202312,713-1,487-1,121-797N/A
12/31/202213,604-1,587-1,836-1,324N/A
9/30/202214,520-870-2,375-1,757N/A
6/30/202214,614-619-2,666-1,942N/A
3/31/202214,066-359-3,350-2,655N/A
12/31/202112,814-135-3,151-2,594N/A
9/30/202110,888-109-2,063-1,583N/A
6/30/20218,952-84-1,955-1,572N/A
3/31/20216,734-147-1,324-972N/A
12/31/20205,587-171-968-608N/A
9/30/20204,864-149-1,119-769N/A
6/30/20204,414-172-951-637N/A
3/31/20204,283-152-988-711N/A
12/31/20193,940-115N/A-757N/A
9/30/20193,421-96N/A-585N/A
6/30/20192,861-83N/A-530N/A
3/31/20192,350-74N/A-497N/A
12/31/20181,955-61N/A-414N/A
9/30/20181,636-90N/A-348N/A
6/30/20181,326-77N/A-318N/A
3/31/20181,060-70N/A-278N/A
12/31/2017859-64N/A-200N/A
9/30/2017701-100N/A-211N/A
6/30/2017574-98N/A-201N/A
3/31/2017451-95N/A-235N/A
12/31/2016365-93N/A-240N/A
9/30/2016301-23N/A-175N/A
12/31/2015130-37N/A-54N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: CVNAの予測収益成長率 (年間17.5% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: CVNAの収益 ( 17.5% ) はUS市場 ( 16.8% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高成長収益: CVNAの収益は増加すると予測されていますが、大幅には増加しません。

収益対市場: CVNAの収益 ( 18.3% ) US市場 ( 11.7% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高い収益成長: CVNAの収益 ( 18.3% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: CVNAの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には高くなると予測されています ( 33 %)

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/17 13:44
終値2026/05/15 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Carvana Co. 22 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。47

アナリスト機関
Craig KennisonBaird
John BabcockBarclays
Gary PrestopinoBarrington Research Associates, Inc.