Seeking Alpha • Aug 16
Hold Big 5 Sporting Goods For The Dividend
Big 5 currently pays a $1 per year dividend.
Q2 results showed slowing post-pandemic sales.
The dividend is solid, but this is a no-growth company model.
Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (BGFV) is a national retail outlet for sporting goods with 431 stores. It operates in a competitive arena. DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) is considerably larger, with 858 stores. Walmart (WMT) and other large retailers offer many of the same types of items as Big 5. Other physical and internet retailers compete in specific categories including shoes, sportswear, ski equipment, and camping equipment.
The dividend of $0.25 will next be paid on September 15 to shareholders of record as of September 1, 2022. That means investors can earn a very high rate of interest by buying stock during the remainder of August. The wisdom, or not, of that will be discussed below.
In this article I will examine where Big 5 would fit, or not, in portfolios. My own portfolio consisted largely of small to mid-cap biotech stocks until about 2 years ago. While I am mostly retaining those companies, I have also been gradually adding slower-growth, less risky dividend stocks. Big 5 is clearly a dividend stock, but it may not fit well in every dividend-oriented portfolio. Perhaps the most important issue is whether the dividend is sustainable.
BGFV data by YCharts
Big 5 Q2 2022 Results
Most retailing is seasonal, and sporting goods has its own specific dynamics. The fourth quarter, the gift giving season so big for many retailers, is not Big 5’s strongest. It coincides with initial sales of winter clothing and ski equipment. The first quarter, Winter, also tends to have weakness. The second quarter is typically strongest, as Spring compels people to venture outside with new clothing and equipment. Then the third quarter slacks off a bit as some summer sales continue, followed by the addition of back-to-school, including school sports, sales.
To give context, here are revenue results for Big 5 for the four quarters of 2021:
BGFV revenue, $ millions
Q1 2021
273
Q2 2021
326
Q3 2021
290
Q4 2021
273
Big 5 in Q2 2022 (fiscal, ending July 3) reported revenue of $254 million, which was down 22% from $326 million in the year-earlier quarter. In fact it was below every 2021 quarter. Same store sales were also down 22%, but the company pointed out that going back two years for comparison, same store sales were up 4%. 2020 was a less than stellar year because of the pandemic, while 2021 was boosted by government stimulus checks.
After expenses net income was $8.9 million, or $0.41 per share. That is down significantly from Q2 2021, when net income was $26.8 million or $1.63 per share. Big 5 ended the quarter with $36.6 million in cash. It had no long-term liabilities, but it did have accounts payable of $115 million, accrued expenses of $68 million, and lease liabilities. On the positive side it had $19 million in prepaid expenses, $14 million in accounts receivable, and $338 million in inventory.
Post-pandemic Outlook
The price of any stock tends to be more about the future than the past. We know the past, but we are guessing about the future even when we use the word forecasting. Given the interest rate raises from the Federal Reserve, and the likelihood they will continue for a while, we may see a flattening of consumer demand, or even a recession. Meanwhile margins are a crucial issue for retailers: how much will suppliers want to raise their prices, and how much of that can be passed on to consumers? In Q2 margins were strong, 310 basis points higher than in pre-pandemic second quarters, though down 102 basis points y/y. CEO Steve Miller reported that because inventory has been kept current, Big 5 can use promotions strategically, rather than to clear excess inventory at low margins. A focus continues to be on keeping costs down, which has been a key to the company’s long-term success.