Seeking Alpha • Jul 27
Kezar Life Sciences: Regulatory Tailwinds Reverse Downside Case
Recent clinical trial momentum has started to inflect positive on the chart for Kezar Life Sciences.
The stock has caught a bid in June whilst reducing equity beta to the broad sector, illustrating the sensitivity of its idiosyncratic risk premia.
We've also identified a potential mispricing opportunity with a ~38% value gap to the upside, valuing KZR at $13.
With this comes an opportunity to harvest alpha over the coming 4-month period into November.
These and more points are discussed in this report.
Investment summary
Recent clinical trial momentum has begun to come through on the chart for Kezar Life Sciences, Inc. (KZR). Following regulatory updates in late June the stock has caught a bid and has our attention as a life sciences play to capture near to medium-term alpha. Here we've identified a potential mispricing to the upside and see a price objective of $13 for KZR over the coming 3-months. We feel the stock will continue breaking away from peers in the sector as investors reward its clinical trial momentum. We estimate the alpha opportunity to last until November, following Q3 earnings. With the view investors will continue to award idiosyncratic risk premia like positive trial readouts in FY22, we rate KZR a buy PT $13.
Exhibit 1. KZR 9-month price action
Data: Refinitiv
Market factors are supportive of further upside
We've observed a sharp pullback in growth factors and equity beta this year as investors look to step up in quality. As such, low-beta, high quality plays are optimal for budgeting equity risk in FY22. On that note, we observe two key findings from KZR's investment debate. Firstly, it has strengthened against the benchmark since June, after it first was punished early in that month from a setback in its PRESIDIO Phase 2 trial. Prior to this, it had been strengthening since November 2021.
Following its most recent updates, discussed later, the KZR has caught a bid and is now performing against the SPX. Perhaps more importantly, however, is that its covariance structure has been shifting downwards since April and therefore looks to offer investors a source of uncorrelated alpha.
Investors are paying a premium for idiosyncratic risk premia in FY22 and the fact KZR is bifurcating away from the broad market to the upside is evidence investors recognize this in the name, by estimation.
Exhibit 2. Downshifting covariance structure whilst strengthening against benchmark is a bullish divergence factor
Data: Updata
Further evidence of this point is seen in the chart below. Firstly, the medical devices and health care equipment sector has also been curling up in H2 FY22. As observed, KZR is strengthening against an already performing sector, a clear differentiating factor.
We also observe this isn't just sector beta, given the fact it has reduced correlation to the sector whilst gaining in relative strength, as seen below. Therefore, we believe this to be evidence of the market's rewarding of KZR's idiosyncratic risk premia that is now on offer.
Exhibit 3. Further evidence of key differentials at work for KZR with investors outsizing the name versus the sector
Data: Updata
Regulatory tailwinds
In late June, the company posted a set of positive updates from its clinical trial investigating zetomipzomib. It first announced that the MISSION open label Phase 2 trial, investigating zetomipzomib's use as an experimental therapy active lupus nephritis ("ALN"), showed a clinically meaningful response.
ALN is a sub-condition of systemic lupus erythematosus ("SLE"), an autoimmune disorder that results in chronic inflammation of the body's connective tissue. It is estimated that ~50% of SLE patients are at risk of developing end-state renal disease that often leads to death. At present, the current standard of treatment is chronic non-steroidal anti-inflammatory ("NSAID") use, dialysis or full kidney transplantation ("FKE"). Zetomipzomib is indicated in usage here as is an immunoproteasome-selective inhibitor identified based on the optimization of ONX-0914. It shows a comparable cytokine inhibition profile peripheral blood mononuclear cells ("PBMC").
For the MISSION trial, the 21-patient cohort was dosed with 60mg of the compound via subcutaneous route 1x weekly as a combination therapy for 24 weeks. Of the group, 17 progressed through the trial, with 65% (11 out of17) of these achieving a ≥50% reduction in urine protein creatinine ratio ("UPCR") compared to baseline. Being a phase 2 trial, investigating safety and efficacy, the treatment was well tolerated with only 2 patients exhibiting serious adverse events. As an add-on, findings also showed that patients in also experienced reductions in extra-renal manifestations of SLE.
One of the key benefits the label offers is that it offers an alternative to NSAID's, often the standard of care in SLE management. Long-term NSAID usage is linked to various medical conditions including Cushing's syndrome, peptic ulcers, acute renal failure and cardiovascular issues. Marcum and Hanlon (2010) illustrated that health care providers are often at risk of overprescribing NSAIDs as well. Hence, zetomipzomib has the potential to compete on top of the standard of care as a standalone drug class operating in its own segment.
Price action responsive
After de-rating substantially in H1 FY22, price action has now turned bullish following this most recent round of updates. In the days after the announcement, the KZR share price rallied over 100% as investors sought to price in the news. Upside has continued and based on the most recent price action we see a cluster of price targets towards $21.70, as seen on Exhibit 4. Shares are testing the first of several inner resistance lines and if it punches up above these this will be bullish confirmation towards our price target.
Exhibit 4. Multiple upside targets to $21.70
Data: Updata
On a 6-month daily cloud chart, shares have broken back into the cloud and are now trading within cloud support. The lag line is now testing the cloud and we await for this to breakout in order for full conviction on the upward trend. On balance volume has ticked north and suggests long-term volume is still gaining, whilst momentum still remains high as seen below.
Exhibit 5. Trading into cloud support
Data: Updata
Tracing the fibs down from the March high to its May bottom we see the share has already retraced ~38% of the move, where it is currently being tested. We are looking for a bounce from this level to the 50% tab on the fib and this is at ~$11.40. Hence, we look for our next technical objective to be $11.40 from here.
Exhibit 6.
Data: Updata
Valuation
With its lack of profitability, assigning a concrete value for KZR is difficult. This is best done through a substantiative DCF, however, given the shifting rates regime and changing capital environment, the predictability of future cash flows is far less certain. However, KZR trades on ~3x book value, below the GICS sector median, as seen below.
Exhibit 7. Multiples and comps
Data: HB Insights
At ~3x book value we would theoretically 'pay' $15, in other words we'd overpay by ~58.5%. We therefore believe KZR could presently be overvalued by that amount, and consequently price at $5.98 apiece, suggesting long-term valuations may already be reflective of the regulatory tailwinds discussed in this report.
