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CTI BioPharma(CTIC)株式概要
CTI BioPharma Corp., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel targeted therapies for blood-related cancers in the United States. 詳細
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CTI BioPharma Corp. 競合他社
価格と性能
| 過去の株価 | |
|---|---|
| 現在の株価 | US$9.09 |
| 52週高値 | US$9.10 |
| 52週安値 | US$4.01 |
| ベータ | 0.83 |
| 1ヶ月の変化 | 0.44% |
| 3ヶ月変化 | 112.38% |
| 1年変化 | 66.18% |
| 3年間の変化 | 690.43% |
| 5年間の変化 | 73.47% |
| IPOからの変化 | -99.99% |
最新ニュース
CTI BioPharma: Reiterating Target Price Of $17 After Successful VONJO Launch
CTIC announced its 2Q 2022 results on 8 August. With booked revenues coming in at $12.3 million for the quarter, revenues were above Street expectations. In my view, the 26% share price decline since the results is a reaction to BVF Partners (a major equity holder of the company) selling shares. I view this decline as a major buying opportunity. I believe the market totally ignored the $8.2 million in accounts receivables reported by the company. The CFO’s repeated statements that CTIC has sufficient cash to meet its financial obligations through 2023 is a major clue that further dilution is not likely. I am maintaining my target price of $17. I will continue to hold CTIC until a buyout or my target is achieved in the next 1.5 to 3.5 years. Background As an update to my previous article on CTI BioPharma (CTIC), where I recommended this stock as a "Strong Buy" and a $17 price target, CTIC’s first complete quarter of sales in its history was greeted with enthusiasm by Wall Street analysts. Most analysts reiterated their “Buy” ratings and maintained or revised their price targets higher. While the launch of VONJO (CTIC's only approved drug for the treatment of adults with intermediate or high-risk post-polycythemia vera or post-essential thrombocythemia) was viewed as being successful by the street (and management), the $12.3 million in net sales reported by the company was only in line with Inrebic (BMY) sales in the first quarter after its launch in 4Q 2019. To a certain extent, traders were taking profits and viewed the $12.3 million revenue figure with disappointment, punishing the stock by -22.9% at one point on Tuesday, 9th April 2022, before the stock recovered to close -11.8% on that day. Since then, however, CTIC has lost about 26% of its value from its highs of $7.56 prior to the earnings release, coming back to about the level where I recommended the stock back on May 04, 2022. Another factor impacting the price dynamic was the fact that BVF Partners sold 8.5 million shares in the company on August 9, 2022 (according to BVF Partners' Form 4 filing). The market took this as a major equity holder selling stock and perhaps losing some faith in the growth prospects of the company. Why I am maintaining my DCF Valuation In my view, the market completely ignored the $8.2 million in Accounts Receivables reported by the company in 2Q.2022 (see pp. 4 of CTIC's 2Q.2022 10Q Filing). If we add this to the top line reported revenue figure, VONJO sales for the quarter would have been $20.5 million – or 70% higher than Inrebic sales at the same stage of Inrebic’s commercial launch. VONJO is off to a great start and confirms for me that VONJO is highly differentiated from Incyte Corporation's (INCY) JAKAFI. As I stated in my previous article, my own interviews with hematologists indicated that they have been waiting for VONJO to come to market for the 7,000 patients in the United States that suffer from severe thrombocytopenia (i.e., blood platelet counts under 50 x10^9 /L). Management’s repeated comments that there is a 60 / 40 split in hospital / community prescribers is also very bullish, as cancer drugs normally get acceptance in the hospital setting before a slow ramp up into the community setting. That is not the case for VONJO. While we may never know how many patient lives are impacted by CTIC (unless the company reveals it – which their CEO has refused to do in the past), we can model and benchmark this additional sales information to inform our unit economics going forward. At a wholesale price of $19,500, the $20.5 million in sales represents 350 prescriptions per month ($20.5 million / $19,500 / 3) in the quarter. It will be useful for us to track this number in order to understand CTIC’s market share gain over time. At 350 prescriptions (assuming 1 prescription per patient), CTIC’s market share of the 7,000 patients in the United States that suffer from severe thrombocytopenia now stands at 5%. Again, that is an excellent start. My expectation in my previous DCF model was a quick ramp-up to 1,750 patients, or a 25% market share by the end of 2022 (due to the unmet medical need). That is likely not going to happen. At a run rate of 350 patients per quarter, we are looking at 1,050 patients by the end of 2022 (a 15% market share). I do, however, think that in 2023, and beyond, VONJO is more than capable of taking a 30% market share in 2023, and a 50% market share in 2024, as CTIC continues to educate specialists on further positive trial data. See my slightly revised unit economics figures below: Table 1: CTIC’s Unit Economics Unit Economics 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Old Model (May 2022) 1,750 2,333 3,500 3605 3,713 3,825 Old Model Revs ($ million) $209.6 $387.5 $604.6 $647.6 $693.7 $743.1 New Model(August 2022) 1,050 2,333 3,500 3,605 3,713 3,825 New Model Revs ($ million) $125.8 same same same same same Maintaining my Cost Forecast for CTIC While CTIC missed the street expectations on the bottom line by a penny, I was actually quite encouraged by management’s cost control. Total operating and non-operating expenses came in at $34.983 million, much lower than my run rate calculations of $53 million in my DCF model that you can see in my previous article. The $18 million difference was due partially to the fact that CTIC has not yet paid the $10.3 million owed to Takeda, opting instead to drag out this payment until March 15, 2023; and the $25 million payment to SBIO + low single-digit royalties to SBIO that continues to show in CTIC’s books under Intangible Assets, but will at some point move to the income statement. I am, therefore, maintaining my conservative cost forecasts for CTIC. BVF Sale was 18.8% of their overall holdings and likely motivated by fund dynamics The elephant in the room, of course, is the stock sale by BVF on August 9. While the retail comment boards were full of criticism about the BVF Partners’ stock sale, according to BVF’ Form 13F and Form 13D filings and CTIC's Form 8K filing, it looks like BVF sold 8.5 million shares out of its total holdings of 45.3 million shares of CTIC, or 18.8% of its holdings.CTI BioPharma GAAP EPS of -$0.21 misses by $0.01, revenue of $12.33M beats by $3.23M
CTI BioPharma press release (NASDAQ:CTIC): Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.21 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $12.33M beats by $3.23M.CTI BioPharma: Approval Is Great, Now There's The Follow Through
CTI BioPharma's Pacritinib has been conditionally approved. It has critical differentiations with Incyte's Jakafi. While the potential is huge, cash and some data points are worrying signs. CTI BioPharma Corp. (CTIC) was granted accelerated approval of VONJO or pacritinib for the treatment of adults with myelofibrosis ("MF") with a platelet count below 50 times 10 to 9 per liter. This approval was based on the Phase III PERSIST-2 trial, a study that enrolled myelofibrosis patients with platelet counts less than or equal to 100 times 10 to 9 per liter, making it the only randomized controlled study specifically designed to recruit the cytopenic myelofibrosis population, that is patients with thrombocytopenia and anemia. Announcing the approval, the company CEO said: In the U.S., there are approximately 21,000 patients with myelofibrosis, two-thirds of which have cytopenias (thrombocytopenia or anemia), commonly resulting from the toxicity of other approved therapies. Severe thrombocytopenia, defined as a blood platelet count below 50 × 109/L, occurs in one-third of the overall myelofibrosis population, and has a particularly poor prognosis. With the approval of VONJO, we are excited to now be able to offer a new therapy that is specifically approved for patients with cytopenic myelofibrosis. We are fully funded for commercial launch, following our debt and royalty transactions with DRI, and we look forward to providing VONJO, the potential best-in-class therapy for cytopenic myelofibrosis patients, to patients within 10 days. Incyte's (INCY) Jakafi is also approved for MF patients, though it is approved for patients with a higher platelet count compared to VONJO. Jakafi earned $2.4bn last year, and while exact figures for the MF indication are not known to me, I am guessing that VONJO is looking at a huge market, running into billions of dollars. There are 21,000 MF patients in the U.S., and about a third of them have low platelets where no other therapy is approved. VONJO is priced at $19,500 per month, or $240,000 per year. That is an effective market of nearly $2bn in the U.S. alone. Jakafi's activity against both JAK1 and JAK2 versus pacritinib's focus on JAK2 only, mostly avoiding the problematic JAK1 pathway, gives it an edge. Like I discussed earlier, high-dose Jakafi at 20mg is effective but toxic, which is where VONJO has its advantage. As company management recently said: The physician -- the frustration of physicians, as we've said previously, is the dissatisfaction with low-dose rux. It's very common, particularly in the community practice because dose -- the dose has to be altered based on the toxicities seen, and it's -- it can be a complicated management scenario. What the feedback -- some of the feedback we've got from physicians has been the attractiveness of VONJO is that the drug can be given at full dose without the need for large numbers of dose modifications. CTIC was also lucky to be able to get VONJO included in NCCN guidelines, which is the largest network of comprehensive cancer treatment centers in the US. Inclusion here means wider propagation and a guarantee of higher sales because most oncologists in the U.S. - even elsewhere - look to the NCCN guidelines for latest updates on standard practices. Although the company still has to complete the PACIFICA trial (topline in 2025) for full approval, things are going well for VONJO so far. Last month, the company presented PERSIST 1 and 2 data at the European Hematology Association ((EHA)) 2022 Congress. According to Seeking Alpha: The analysis indicated a similar incidence of bleeding events as well as overall and fatal adverse events for pacritinib and ruxolitinib. Notably, the cardiac events were more common in patients who received pacritinib, CTIC said, attributing the difference mainly to higher rates of grade 1 peripheral edema on the therapy.CTI BioPharma initiated at outperform at Cowen on potential for Vonjo for myelofibrosis
Cowen has initiated CTI Biopharma (NASDAQ:CTIC) with an outperform rating citing the growth potential of Vonjo (pacritinib), which was approved in February for thrombocytopenic myelofibrosis. Shares are up 14% in Thursday afternoon trading. The firm has a $10 price target (~67% upside based on Wednesday's close). Analyst Boris Peaker said that one of the advantages of Vonjo over current treatments is that as a JAK2/IRAK1 inhibitor, it appears to be missing JAK inhibitor treatment-emergent thrombocytopenia and is also effective no matter the baseline platelet count. He added that Vonjo is approved for patients with very low platelet counts and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines call for the therapy's use in a second-line setting, both developments that support broader use. Incyte's (INCY) Jakafi (ruxolitinib) is a competitor to Vonjo, though it is approved for patients with a higher platelet count compared to Vonjo. Peaker is estimating $1B in peak sales, though the amount could be higher due to off-label use. Vonjo can achieve a 55% market share of U.S. patients by 2027, according to Seeking Alpha contributor Nizar Assanie.Recent updates
株主還元
| CTIC | US Biotechs | US 市場 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -0.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| 1Y | 66.2% | 33.0% | 26.4% |
業界別リターン: CTIC過去 1 年間で33 % の収益を上げたUS Biotechs業界を上回りました。
リターン対市場: CTIC過去 1 年間で26.4 % の収益を上げたUS市場を上回りました。
価格変動
| CTIC volatility | |
|---|---|
| CTIC Average Weekly Movement | 25.3% |
| Biotechs Industry Average Movement | 10.8% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.5% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
安定した株価: CTICの株価は、 US市場と比較して過去 3 か月間で変動しています。
時間の経過による変動: CTICの 週次ボラティリティ は、過去 1 年間で15%から25%に増加しました。
会社概要
| 設立 | 従業員 | CEO(最高経営責任者 | ウェブサイト |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 128 | Adam Craig | www.ctibiopharma.com |
CTI BioPharma Corp. 基礎のまとめ
| CTIC 基礎統計学 | |
|---|---|
| 時価総額 | US$1.20b |
| 収益(TTM) | -US$69.24m |
| 売上高(TTM) | US$75.77m |
CTIC は割高か?
公正価値と評価分析を参照収益と収入
| CTIC 損益計算書(TTM) | |
|---|---|
| 収益 | US$75.77m |
| 売上原価 | US$4.46m |
| 売上総利益 | US$71.31m |
| その他の費用 | US$140.55m |
| 収益 | -US$69.24m |
直近の収益報告
Mar 31, 2023
次回決算日
該当なし
| 一株当たり利益(EPS) | -0.53 |
| グロス・マージン | 94.11% |
| 純利益率 | -91.38% |
| 有利子負債/自己資本比率 | -459.4% |
CTIC の長期的なパフォーマンスは?
過去の実績と比較を見る企業分析と財務データの現状
| データ | 最終更新日(UTC時間) |
|---|---|
| 企業分析 | 2023/06/28 21:30 |
| 終値 | 2023/06/23 00:00 |
| 収益 | 2023/03/31 |
| 年間収益 | 2022/12/31 |
データソース
企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。
| パッケージ | データ | タイムフレーム | 米国ソース例 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 会社財務 | 10年 |
| |
| アナリストのコンセンサス予想 | +プラス3年 |
|
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| 市場価格 | 30年 |
| |
| 所有権 | 10年 |
| |
| マネジメント | 10年 |
| |
| 主な進展 | 10年 |
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* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。
特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM(Trailing Twelve Month)またはLTM(Last Twelve Month)データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。
分析モデルとスノーフレーク
本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。
シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。
業界およびセクターの指標
私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。
アナリスト筋
CTI BioPharma Corp. 6 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。16
| アナリスト | 機関 |
|---|---|
| Kimberly Lee | Brean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery) |
| Leah Rush Cann | Brookline Capital Markets |
| null null | BTIG |