Seeking Alpha • Oct 01
Audacy: Can The Company Make It?
Summary
Audacy appears focused on trying to grow EBITDA to deleverage rather than focusing on debt reduction.
A reverse split looks highly likely unless the company reports strong results or convinces the market that management has a plan in place that adds significant value for shareholders.
The company could buy back bonds at about $0.25 on the dollar right now, but management has previously stated that it did not have interest in that type of transaction.
Over the last year, we have highlighted a number of media names that we like, with a fair number of legacy radio companies included. We made some really good calls on these names during the COVID-19 sell-off and although we have taken some profits, this is an area we think can see further gains. We have left no stone unturned as we have researched nearly every publicly traded player, and while there are a number of stocks we really do like, there are probably just as many that we find perplexing.
We have been asked numerous times about our thoughts on Audacy, Inc. (AUD) as some view it as a leveraged play on ad sales and/or the Federal Reserve having to do a relatively quick about-face on rates. While we would agree that the stock could move strongly higher if one, and especially both, of those items were to work out in Audacy's favor, we think that a more thorough look is required before rushing to buy shares.
First Problem: Reverse Stock Split
On August 4, 2022 Audacy announced via a press release that the company had been notified by the New York Stock Exchange that the company's Class A common stock was not in compliance with the 30 consecutive day $1/share minimum average closing price rule. From that time, Audacy can regain compliance within a 6-month "cure period" by having a $1/share average closing price over a 30 trading day period while also closing at $1/share on the last trading day of that month. This is not a hard rule to get back into compliance with, especially when a company has good material news that it can report on. However, the easiest way to regain compliance is for a company's Board of Directors to approve a reverse stock split.
Data by YCharts
Audacy's management team has stated that it believes that the company can get back into compliance, preferably with the share price rebounding on its own. With shares currently trading just under $0.40/share and the stock recently hitting 14-year lows, our bet is that the company will have to do a reverse stock split unless it finally starts getting serious about the debt load and fixing the legacy business while slowing spending on M&A for the podcasting division.
The Debt Load: A Problem Management Wants To Ignore
Currently, Audacy has a significant debt load. The company has, by our last count, $1.86 billion in total debt with the weighted average coupon just over 6.60%. The good news about the debt is that there is not much that has to be repaid in 2022 or 2023. The bad news is that 2024 is when the company will have to begin to roll maturing debt, and refinancing that debt could be a problem - especially if management wants to create some breathing room from the 2027 and 2029 maturities.
The maturing term loan (it matures on 11/17/2024) should be easy enough to refinance in a normal market, but if the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates, companies such as Audacy might not be viewed favorably from a credit standpoint which could in turn force them to issue bonds at wider spreads for the portion they may not be able to roll over into a new loan. We doubt this turns into a problem, but regulators could make it a problem if there are cracks in the market with companies that have a large amount of debt.
A reading of the most recent conference call seems to support our thinking on the 2024 debt maturities, with management (during Rich Schmaeling's opening remarks) discussing its thoughts on all maturities in 2024 (emphasis ours):
"Again, assuming any recession that we face is not severe and that the recovery commences in the second half of 2023, we believe we ought to be able to refinance our $767 million of outstanding first-lien debt well before this debt matures in about two years."
So the company is banking on being able to roll that first-lien debt and hoping to take care of that prior to 2024. It would be good news if they could accomplish that; however, we do wonder what the spread would be as well as the corresponding increase in interest payments.