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Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Dec 15
Livent: Wonderful Company Fairly Valued
Summary Livent Corporation is a lithium products company that trades below its IPO price and has exposure to the promising lithium industry. The company's financial performance has been impacted in recent quarters by cyclicality, but it continues to improve its strategic positioning in the industry. LTHM's merger with Allkem is expected to bring synergies and diversification of assets, making it one of the world's largest lithium companies. The stock is attractively valued. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha分析記事 • Nov 09
These Analysts Think Livent Corporation's (NYSE:LTHM) Sales Are Under Threat
Market forces rained on the parade of Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded...Seeking Alpha • Nov 06
Livent: Good Opportunity To Pick Up An Attractive Business On The Cheap
Summary We touch upon some of the reasons for Livent Corporation's ongoing weakness. Despite the risks, the stock offers good value at current levels with attractive valuations and a strong operating structure. The long-term EV story remains intact, and Livent's growing lithium carbonate prowess should hold it in good stead. Institutions continue to buy this story, whilst the charts suggest that the selling has been overdone. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 24
Livent: Lithium Boom Or Bust? Analysts Are Rightfully Bullish
Summary Livent Corporation is seeing a 20% year-to-date stock price decline, despite growth potential in the booming EV and lithium market. The company's growth strategy includes capacity expansion and next-gen compounds, aligning with the electrification market's needs. While lithium prices have faced pressure, analysts still see potential in LTHM, offering an attractive risk/reward ratio and a potential for substantial returns in the long term. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 21
Livent: Valuation Fairly Accounts For Lithium Price Crash
Summary Livent, a top lithium mining stock, has faced volatility due to fluctuating demand and supply of lithium in response to booming EV and HEV sales. Lithium prices have fallen dramatically over the past year, but US electric vehicle sales are soaring, providing long-term value for Livent. Livent's merger with Allkem is expected to be highly beneficial as the global lithium industry needs consolidation. Despite lower lithium prices, Livent's EPS may continue to rise as higher output offsets the decline in contract prices. Livent is not a riskless bet today but I believe it offers more value and growth than most electric vehicle stocks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 08
Livent Corporation: Now Is The Time To Buy
Summary Livent has always been an attractive company in my eyes, but last April, I wanted to remain on the sidelines as I could not identify a market-moving catalyst. Through fixed-price contracts, Livent has been able to enjoy higher realized prices in the second quarter despite lithium prices declining. Livent, in my opinion, is a company that is on the right track to enjoying long-lasting competitive advantages because of two main reasons. My investment thesis for the company is centered around three key expectations. With the emergence of a new earnings catalyst, I believe now is a good time to invest in Livent. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 26
Livent: May Actually Be The Strongest Player In The Lithium Space
Summary Livent’s niche in battery-grade lithium positions itself to be a market mover, fueled by present EV demand. The firm’s relatively small nature is a departure from other tectonic players, providing a value investment in a sea of growth securities. The firm’s historically invariable input costs suggest that imminent demand increases will widen profit margins. Livent’s niche in battery-grade lithium positions itself to be a market mover, fueled by present EV demand. Livent’s looming merger with Allkem presents the creation of the third-largest lithium hydroxide producer per annual capacity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 04
Livent: A Raised Guidance And M&A Opportunity Make A Buy Case
Summary Livent Corporation and Allkem Limited are merging to create a leading lithium producer, with the deal expected to close by the end of 2023. Despite risks such as suppressed lithium prices, the financial health of both companies appears strong, with Livent's cash position at $194 million and Allkem's at $242 million. The current price looks like a great entry point based on historical metrics for the company, and the merger will create a big opportunity to benefit from. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 24
Livent: Amazing M&A Opportunities Ahead
Summary Revenue totaled $254 mln (+77% y/y), up 6% from our estimate of $239 mln. The discrepancy was driven by a higher revenue in the segment of lithium hydroxide sales. The company’s EBITDA totaled $145.5 mln (+126% y/y), exceeding our forecast of $101 mln due to the higher revenue and a faster reduction of gross costs per a ton. The management revised the guidance for the growth of the company’s total revenue in 2023 slightly upward. The company has also announced a merger with the Argentine-based lithium ore producer, Allkem, creating a company that will be the world's third-largest lithium producer. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha分析記事 • Apr 17
Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM)?
Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial...分析記事 • Apr 04
Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM) Shares Could Be 22% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights Livent's estimated fair value is US$27.35 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Livent's US$21.30...分析記事 • Mar 20
Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Has More To Do To Multiply In Value Going Forward
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? In a perfect world...分析記事 • Mar 05
We Think Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Seeking Alpha • Feb 23
Livent: Headed Lower As Lithium Prices Collapse Amid Impending Glut
Summary Lithium has been in a tight shortage since 2021 as demand growth outpaced supply due to project delays in 2020. Lithium supply growth is expected to accelerate as delayed projects are finished in 2023 and last through 2025. Lithium prices have tumbled recently as electric vehicle demand growth slows and an EV battery glut forms. Livent Corporation may see its EPS slide considerably as it is not growing output quickly enough to offset lower prices. LTHM stock appears particularly overvalued since it trades at a valuation premium to peers despite its lackluster growth. Chinese and US lithium prices have tumbled considerably over the past three months as the market braces for weaker demand for electric vehicles. Further, significant new lithium mining output is expected this year, along with new recycling operations, potentially triggering a glut that will grow over the coming years. Like most commodities, lithium appears to follow a "super-cycle" where the high prices of shortage eras trigger excess production growth, leading to prolonged gluts and lower prices. Although global lithium prices have tumbled ~20-30%, they are still 5-10X higher than before the 2021 rally. See Chinese prices below: China Lithium Carbonate Price (TradingEconomics) US and European lithium prices usually track Chinese prices since China is the largest global lithium consumer. China is also a major global lithium producer, though Australia's lithium mining industry has grown extremely rapidly and now accounts for most global production. Global lithium production has quadrupled since 2010 due to immense demand growth from the burgeoning electric vehicle sector. Demand was growing faster than supply over recent years. Still, I believe that trend is shifting as growing wage and cost strains cause a reduction in EV demand growth compared to lithium production - which is guaranteed to grow for a few years due to existing development projects. Key stocks, such as Livent Corporation (LTHM), are likely to be impacted by this "boom and bust" pattern. LTHM rose tremendously from 2020 to 2021 as the lithium market fell into a significant shortage, primarily driven by mining project delays due to the lockdowns. As those projects are finished and production surges, it seems LTHM will no longer benefit from the lithium shortage and may be negatively impacted by an impending glut. That said, LTHM is beloved by many investors, and its production growth may offset lower product prices. Still, I believe it may be wise for investors to take a cautious outlook on the stock instead of the changing market dynamics. Will Output Growth Offset Falling Prices? One key challenge in analyzing the lithium market is its rapid growth. Lithium is one of the few metals that is simultaneously seeing immense demand growth and supply growth. This situation creates enormous volatility for lithium's price because the high growth rates can cause substantial gluts and shortages to occur temporarily. Of course, shortages can cause gluts as high prices boost miner profits and encourage accelerated supply growth. Significantly, lower lithium prices do not necessarily promote greater demand growth since that is primarily driven by electric vehicle demand. Lower lithium prices indeed would marginally lower EV vehicle prices, but not likely by so much to impact EV demand so significantly. Much evidence points to an impending glut in the lithium market. For one, lithium prices have declined quite by quite a bit in recent months. Further, they're likely to drop even faster over the coming months, as signaled by the recent discounts from China's largest EV battery producer. This trend appears to be triggered by a decline in EV demand growth from deteriorating global economic conditions. The global economy seems to be in a prolonged stagnation that may manifest as a recession this year. Many households in the US, Europe, and most other countries are reducing discretionary durable goods purchases (like EVs) due to rising living costs (food, energy, etc.) and stagnating wages. Importantly, this does not necessarily mean EV demand is falling. Although that may be the case, lithium prices are likely to fall even if demand growth declines, such that lithium supply is growing faster than lithium demand. Lithium demand could continue to rise in a recession, but with lithium production multiplying, it would likely only take a slight decline in growth to trigger a glut. Even if prices fall, it is virtually certain that the lithium supply will grow rapidly as production growth accelerates this year through 2025 as new mining projects are finished. One key issue facing Livent specifically is its lower output growth acceleration. Its larger competitors, Albemarle (ALB), Sociedad Química (SQM), and Ganfeng (OTCPK:GNENF), have rapidly accelerated their sales and COGs (an indicator of mine output) over recent quarters, while Livent's has risen far more slowly. See below: Data by YCharts Livent's output growth is still strong but very weak compared to its largest competitors. For example, Livent expects its sales to rise around 20% this year due to output capacity growth, but Albemarle anticipates 55-75% YoY sales growth this year. As its peers expand output faster, Livent is more likely to be caught with lower selling prices that are not offset by faster output growth. Overall, I believe it is likely that Livent will see its net income decline this year. The company is not expanding output as quickly as its peers, so it will likely be caught on the "wrong side" of a glut. Lithium prices are falling swiftly from very high values and, with EV demand growth slowing quickly, could rapidly transform into a surplus. As with many other metals, I would not be surprised to see lithium fall close to its pre-spike levels but likely persist somewhere above that range. Livent's breakeven point is likely around the $40K/MT level today. Lithium was trading over this level last year but is now only at ~$60K/MT after the collapse over recent weeks. While prices may not fall below the $20K/MT level they held for years before 2021, it is falling quickly enough to warrant a decline below Livent's breakeven level. The company will likely avoid losses due to its fixed-price contract portfolio, but those contracts could also extend lower margins for years. The Bottom Line In my view, LTHM is a higher-risk stock today since it appears increasingly likely that lithium prices will decline sufficiently to re-test the company's core profitability. This would not be a significant concern if it were growing output quickly enough to offset lower prices. Still, because Livent is expanding far slower than its peers, it appears to be in a weaker competitive position. Despite this, LTHM trades at a relatively high valuation premium compared to its peer group. See below: Data by YCharts分析記事 • Feb 16
With EPS Growth And More, Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Makes An Interesting Case
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Seeking Alpha • Feb 14
Livent GAAP EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.02, revenue of $219.4M misses by $19.88M
Livent press release (NYSE:LTHM): Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $219.4M (+78.5% Y/Y) misses by $19.88M. Reported GAAP net income was $82.7 million, compared to $77.6 million and $7.5 million in the previous quarter and the prior year's quarter, respectively, or 39 cents per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA was $107.6 million, 3% below the previous quarter and nearly four times higher than the prior year's quarter, and adjusted earnings per diluted share were 40 cents. For the full year, Livent reported revenue of $813.2 million, nearly double 2021 results. GAAP net income was $273.5 million, or $1.36 per diluted share, compared to $0.6 million in 2021. Full year Adjusted EBITDA was $366.7 million, over five times higher than the prior year, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.40 per diluted share.Seeking Alpha • Jan 25
Livent: Ambitious Expansion Plans Will Drive Future Cash Flows
Summary Livent Corporation has ambitious expansion plans for the next few years, giving great expectations for future cash flows. Strong company growth combined with a fundamentally optimistic outlook in the lithium sector provides plenty of upside potential for the LTHM stock. 2023 could be a challenging year and somewhat counteract growth in the short term. Those looking to take advantage of a positive long-term trend in the lithium sector and take exposure in a high-growth company are best off with Livent Corp. Investment Thesis Future cash flows for Livent Corporation (LTHM) look attractive because of the company's ambitious expansion plans. The company recorded solid growth in sales last year, and so analysts see this trend continuing in the coming years. A Western catch-up in lithium production is gaining momentum but potential headwinds are expected in 2023. Continuing interest rate hikes and rising energy prices could still be a challenge. Despite a 35% drop from its all-time high in September 2022, I believe the LTHM stock is worth buying, given fundamentally strong future projections and internal growth forecasts. Company Overview Livent Corporation is a purely lithium-focused company with high expertise in lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, which account for more than half of its sales. These two materials are critical in producing electric car batteries and battery storage applications. Consequently, 57% of the company's sales are in battery storage applications and to the EV industry. Investors presentation Livent Corp 70% of Livent's sales come from Asia, which makes sense since China is the third largest lithium producer worldwide. I also have great expectations for their CEO, Paul Graves. Mr. Graves was managing director of investment banking at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2012 and co-head of commodities in China. This experience will be necessary for completing future growth plans. Given Livent's market value of $4.2 billion, it is still a "relatively" small company in the sector, especially when you look at the more prominent players such as Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Tianqi Lithium (TQLCF), Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. (GNENF) and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM). Nevertheless, the company is a unique player that focuses 100% on lithium which gives it a powerful position given the future demand forecast for lithium. Spectacular revenue growth in 2022 The past year was very bright for Livent as it achieved strong revenue growth primarily due to an exponential rise in lithium prices. Revenue in Q3 of 2022 was $232 million, which is a 124% increase over Q3 of 2021. Capex through Q3 2022 stands at $218 million. So expectations of a $300 million to $340 million CAPEX for 2022 will likely be in that range. Livent Corp. Form 10-Q (11/03/2022 - 09/30/2022) Ambitious growth plan In the coming years, Livent intends to go all out with an expansion plan to put its lithium position even more on the world map. The company's lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide projects will undergo a significant expansion. The Nemaska project, of which Livent has 50% ownership in Bécancour Québec, Canada, will require as much as $1 billion in capital to become operational. Production is expected to start in 2025. This is realistic but achievable, with projected sales of $1.62 billion by 2025. Expansions planned to boost lithium carbonate production primarily relate to the company's facilities in Argentina. The plan is to bring their lithium hydroxide capacity to 55,000 mt/year by 2025 and lithium carbonate capacity to 100,000 mt/year by 2030. Given the current capacity, which is at 30,000 mt/year for lithium hydroxide and 20,000 mt/year for lithium carbonate, these are very ambitious expansion plans. The chart below shows Argentina's projected lithium production outlook over the next three years. CAEM Argentina is betting heavily on lithium production. An article in the Economist stated that by 2030, 16% of the global lithium production could come from China. On the other hand, Argentina exports 10% of the world's lithium today. This figure could well go up sharply. Given the high demand for lithium, Argentina will only promote it from an economic standpoint, as it is a win-win situation for the country. Livent's first two expansions in the country will involve capital spending of roughly $1 billion. The 2022 revenue was at $830 million. The plan with these expansions is to fund all expenses with the cash flow that will come in simultaneously. Low costs combined with a strong growth plan will put Livent in a much stronger position by 2023, increasing its incoming cash flow. Revenue expectations for 2023 are at $1.13 billion, which will net the large expenses required for expansions. Livent has signed a partnership with U.S. carmaker General Motors to supply lithium hydroxide starting in 2025 for six years. That automakers will need to be assured of lithium supplies in the future is no longer a surprise. Given the increasingly scarce supply of raw materials in general, lithium will also be in short supply. Automakers who anticipate this and enter into cooperation agreements with lithium producers will be in a very strong position against their competitors. Livent is also strong today because of the GM partnership; I expect the company to get into other partnerships in the coming years. Future Growth Expectations If we look at the growth expectations from Seeking Alpha, we can see that Livent stands out. The company is the industry's pre-eminent performer based on growth expectations. It already saw a significant increase in sales last year, which, combined with rising lithium prices, resulted in a substantial rise in its share price. SeekingAlpha, growth Grade LTHM These growths remain as expectations, which, of course, is not a certainty, but the plans in place can confirm the projections. I look forward to the next 1 or 2 years to see if Livent is able to meet its targets. The expansion plans are quite ambitious, but if executed well and under the supervision of strong management, I believe they will provide a lot of future cash flows. Valuation For a company primarily focused on growth, I prefer to use the P/S ratio since it is commonly used with cyclical companies and industries. Livent's P/S ratio is down more than 50% since November 2021. The P/S ratio is much more useful than the P/E ratio in the case of Livent because profitability is not yet of great importance for a high-growth mining company. P/S ratio Livent Corporation (Tradingview) Livent's P/S ratio stands at 6.32. The lower the P/S ratio, the better. We are just above the five-year average at present, but the ratio has fallen sharply since November 2021. In my opinion, a correct way to value the company will be based on its P/S ratio. Below is the comparison between P/S ratio and the revenue for Livent. Since November 2021, we have seen a strong increase in sales which today's P/S ratio confirms. P/S ratio vs. revenue - Livent Corp. (Tradingview) Now, I will compare Livent with Albemarle, which is almost ten times larger vs. the company in terms of market cap. P/S ratio Albemarle (tradingview) Albemarle had a very similar situation combined with strong sales growth last year. Despite Livent's smaller size, the next few years look good because of expected sales growth. Because Livent still has growth up its sleeve, I believe the upside potential is much greater.Seeking Alpha • Jan 18
Livent: Strong Lithium Market Momentum And Fundamentals
Summary Livent had another very strong financial result in the third quarter as the business continues to reach record levels of profitability. These results were due to continued high. As for the forward multiples, it is about the industry average level, although two quarters ago it was three times more expensive. Livent has been dropping hard for the past month, and the $19-20 level looks attractive given that lithium continues to grow in popularity. Product and Market Overview Livent Corporation (LTHM) is a manufacturer of lithium chemicals used in batteries, agrochemicals, and aerospace alloys. The company operates production sites in the United States, England, India, China, and Argentina. Livent was spun off from FMC's agricultural research enterprise to focus on lithium. The company is expanding its production capacity and is positioned as a preferred partner for leading automotive and battery manufacturers. The company supplies lithium hydroxide to Tesla, a partnership that will be expanded as early as this year. Rystad Energy data indicate that global lithium production capacity will not be sufficient to meet growing demand until 2030. A supply of 8,800 GWh of lithium batteries will be required (demand in 2021 was about 580 GWh) at 100% capacity, which is unlikely. Consequently, prices have risen to unprecedented levels as demand forecasts continue to rise, leaving automakers struggling to secure future deliveries. Also, interesting to note that BlackRock and Vanguard also account for 27% of the stock, and they also increased their shares last quarter. About 96% is held by institutional, 1% by management and only 3% by individuals. Most likely, such popularity among funds is due to the ESG trend. Top 10 owners (CNN) Recent quarterly results Overall, Livent had good financial results in the third quarter as the business continues to improve performance in order to reach record levels of profitability. If we look at the numbers, for example, net profit grew by 1170% YoY. EBITDA +17% Q/Q, and more than six times higher than the previous year. The operating margin reached a solid 44%. Of course, high prices for all products and the company's ability to take advantage of favourable market conditions contributed to all this. In terms of the balance sheet, Net Debt is 48.6 million. Also, during the third quarter, Livent announced a five-year extension of its revolving line of credit through 2027, increasing it by $100 mn. This brings the total capacity of the line of credit to $500m and remains unused at the end of the quarter. Interestingly, 70% of the current volume is at fixed prices, which are apparently well below market prices, and this situation will continue in 2023. The CEO has announced that they will no longer enter into long-term contracts without the possibility of price changes. Also, management noted that current lithium prices in China are exceptionally high, but even if they are seriously reduced by half will be able to get more from the sales price. Q3 financial result (company results) Forecasts The market for lithium is tight, as evidenced by dwindling inventories throughout the supply chain and consistently high prices. Even at this high price level, lithium makes up a relatively small percentage of the total cost of an electric vehicle. Despite some short-term supply chain disruptions, especially in China, due to power outages and COVID-zero policies, demand for lithium remains incredibly high. As planned, the 5,000 metric ton lithium hydroxide expansion at Bessemer City was completed in the third quarter and is in the early stages of production and product qualification for customers. Livent is also on track to add the next 10,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate capacity in Argentina by the end of 2023. Nemaska, a project in which Livent has a 50 per cent stake, is also expected to have 34,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide capacity and more than 30 years of mine life. Looking at the numbers provided by management, revenue will be $815m to $845m which is in line with the consensus forecast ,adjusted EBITDA of $350m to $370m compared to the previous forecast of $325m-375m, CapEx of $320m (+142% y/y).分析記事 • Jan 05
Why Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM) Could Be Worth Watching
Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a...Seeking Alpha • Dec 21
Livent: Perfect Opportunity To Buy
Summary Revenue totaled $231.6 mln (+124% y/y), in line with our estimate of $236 mln. The company’s EBITDA totaled $105.7 mln (+1074% y/y), in line with our forecast for $109 mln. During a conference call, the management reiterated its guidance for the company’s total revenue growth in 2022 to an average of $830 mln (+97% y/y). Despite the price correction in commodities amid rate increases, a strengthening dollar and the global economic slowdown, the price of lithium reached a new historical high of ~$80 thousand a ton. We believe that the recent contraction in the LTHM stock price can give us a perfect entry point for the stock. Investment thesis Livent (LTHM) continues to accelerate its own financial results, and it seems that the overall economic slowdown is not an obstacle for the company. The lithium market looks like a safe harbor against the backdrop of global challenges such as supply chain crisis, inflationary pressure, and declining demand. We remain confident and recommend to buy the stock. Lithium has its own price cycle Despite the price correction in commodities amid rates increases, a strengthening dollar and the global economic slowdown, the price of lithium reached a new historical high of ~$80 thousand a ton, according to Trading Economics (below chart in CNY). Trading Economics The lithium market is not yet fully prone to cyclicality, as it rests on the support from a rapidly growing demand by the EV industry and a fast deployment of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries in China, which replace batteries based on other metals, according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg Despite an impending recession and the consumption weakness, we don't expect demand for lithium to fall, due to the cannibalization of ICE car sales by EVs. Various producers almost every quarter announce releases of new models that push to the sidelines the familiar lineup of ICE cars, and that's a long-term trend, according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg Another tailwind that helps to support lithium prices is the classic story of underinvestment. Investment in EV markedly exceeds the investment in the commodity, according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg The high demand is expected to drive the shortage of lithium from 2022 to 2025, according to Global X, to average about 30 thousand tons a year. The shortage will be the lowest in 2023 due to the start of key production projects in Australia, Africa and South America.Seeking Alpha • Dec 12
Livent: China May Trigger Longer Inflationary Pain - Lithium To Stay Elevated (Rating Upgrade)
Summary No one is obviously expecting China to reopen so early, pointing to Mr. Market's growing conviction that the raging inflation may remain an issue through 2024. Combined with the extension of China's EV subsidies through 2023, we expect the reopening cadence to similarly feed the highly volatile and uncertain macroeconomics. Depending on how the November CPI report turns out and the eventual terminal rates, it is very likely that the elevated lithium prices may remain for a while longer. This fact is already reflected in LTHM's top and bottom line upgrades through FY2024 by 11.8% and 33.17%, respectively, despite the consistent output announced thus far. With the LTHM stock trading at its cheapest P/E valuations, we are finally upgrading the stock as a buy, due to its improved margin of safety. Investment Thesis LTHM 3Y Stock Price Seeking Alpha The Livent Corporation (LTHM) stock has experienced a remarkably volatile year in 2022 indeed, with 76.48% price swings both ways, ending with a sad -6.74% performance YTD. However, we reckon that this has only provided patient investors with the chance to load up, due to the improved margin of safety current prices offer for next decade's portfolio growth and investing. Naturally, only suitable for those with higher risk tolerance and long-term trajectory, since more volatility is on the horizon over the next few days. The November labor report and activity in the services industry have proved overly bullish to market analysts, heavily digesting Powell's previous dovish commentary. Thereby, indicating Mr. Market's growing conviction that terminal rates could potentially be raised to over 6%, since the November CPI report on 13 December may come in hotter than expected, attributed to the Thanksgiving and Black Friday festivities. Though the majority of market analysts are optimistically projecting a 50 basis points hike, there is still a 25.3% chance that the Feds may push for the fifth consecutive 75 basis points hike by 14 December. Only time will tell. One thing is clear for sure, if the Feds indeed pivot earlier than expected, we may see the whole market rally in a tsunami of optimism, temporarily lifting up all boats at the same time. Especially since the demand for Lithium will go through the roof, due to China's unexpected reopening cadence. The country's GDP is expected to rebound tremendously to 5% by 2023, compared to the projected 3% in 2022 and the historical 6% in 2019. This will be triggered by the flurry of 'revenge' spending from the immense pent-up demand over the past three years of lockdown, which was also previously witnessed in the US during the reopening cadence in 2021. As a result, it is apparent that Powell faces an uphill battle, since China's fast and furious reopening may factor into the persistent inflation for longer than 2023, perhaps even into 2024. Thereby, sustaining the elevated lithium prices ahead of LTHM's stock price, as China continues its EV subsidies through 2023 as well. LTHM Continues To Execute Brilliantly While Expanding Margins LTHM Revenue, Net Income ( in million $ ) %, EBIT %, and EPS S&P Capital IQ Despite the tougher YoY comparison and the -$18.3M missed revenue estimates, LTHM continues to exceed expectations, with FQ3'22 EPS of $0.41 against the consensus of $0.39. The company continues to boast excellent GAAP EBIT margins of 45.3% and GAAP net income margins of 33.5% by FQ3'22 as well, in spite of the 28.57% YoY growth in its Stock-Based Compensation to $1.8M. Therefore, it is no wonder that market analysts expect LTHM to outperform with FQ4'22 revenues of $240.1M and EPS of $0.37, significantly aided by the higher realized pricing across the board. These numbers indicate an impressive 95.36% and 462.5% YoY growth, respectively, despite the relatively flat volumes sold on an LCE basis YoY. LTHM FCF ( in million $ ) % and Balance Sheet S&P Capital IQ While LTHM has committed $1B for its output expansion over the next few years, we are not concerned about its immediate liquidity at all, since it continues to boast an excellent balance sheet thus far. The company reports immediate liquidity of up to $408M and inventory of $141.8M in FQ3'22, further strengthened by the $500M in an undrawn credit facility only due by 2027. Excellent indeed, as LTHM has also deftly more than doubled its net PPE assets since FQ3'19, while keeping its reliance on long-term debts stable at $241.6M by the latest quarter. LTHM Projected Revenue, Net Income ( in million $ ) %, EBIT %, and EPS, and FCF % S&P Capital IQ What is more impressive is that LTHM's top and bottom line growth has been further upgraded by Mr. Market since our previous analysis in October 2022. We are now looking at an impressive CAGR of 48.5% and 131.7%, respectively, over the next three years as opposed to previous estimates of 43.15%/110.65%, pre-pandemic levels of -12.2%/-53.9%, and hyper-pandemic levels of 4%/-25.7%. Impressive indeed, despite the supposed 2023 lithium oversupply feared by many analysts. LTHM's minimal FCF generation through 2024 is insignificant as well, since the company is not paying dividends at the moment. Furthermore, these are attributed to its aggressive annual capital expenditure of up to $340M in North America, Argentina, and China. Thereby, qualifying the lithium production for the US IRA's EV tax credits while being bottom-line accretive in China at the same time, which accounted for 35.4% of the company's revenue compared to the US at 18.78% in FQ3'22.分析記事 • Nov 24
Does Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Nov 11
Livent Corporation: Jumped Production Capacity And Hiked Lithium Prices
Summary Livent’s revenue increased by 124% YoY to $232 million in the third quarter of 2022. Lithium carbonate prices jumped by 20% since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022. Due to the Inflation Reduction Act, $2.8 billion was awarded to lithium producers. LTHM’s new hydroxide facility at Bessemer City was mechanically completed in 3Q 2022. Thus, the company’s production will increase in the upcoming quarters. The stock is a buy.Seeking Alpha • Oct 19
Livent: A Good Play On The Lithium Growth Story
Summary Livent is a pure-play on the long-term lithium growth story, supported by the expected growing sales of EVs across the globe. Its fundamentals and growth prospects are good, as the company has established long-term supply agreements with large auto and battery manufacturers. Its valuation is clearly undemanding right now, making Livent a compelling play in the lithium industry. Livent Corporation (LTHM) is a good way to be exposed to the secular growth trend of electric vehicles, which should support higher demand for lithium over the long term, as the company has good growth prospects due to its investment initiatives and its current valuation is quite undemanding. Livent Corp. Background As I’ve analyzed in previous articles, I’m bullish on the electric vehicles ((EV)) sector, and my largest investment within this theme is Albemarle (ALB), due to its leadership position in the lithium industry. While I think Albemarle is a great play over the long term, due to its size and geographic exposure to less risky areas than its closest competitors, it is not a pure-play on lithium considering that in most recent quarters only some 60% of its revenue were generated by its lithium segment. As I’ve a long-term bullish stance on lithium as the demand is expected to grow considerably over the coming years, leading to a tight supply-demand situation for many years, pure lithium plays can have even more upside than Albemarle, even though they are also more risky. This happens because they are more exposed to lithium prices, which have been quite volatile in recent years. As shown in the next graph, after some years of weakness, lithium prices have skyrocketed during the last months of 2021 and beginning of 2022, setting new all-time highs and remained at very record levels since then. This is a clear sign that the supply-demand situation of the lithium market remains tight, particularly due to strong EV sales in Europe and China, and the supply deficit situation in the market should continue for some time. Lithium price (Bloomberg) Given that the growth prospects of the lithium industry remain quite good and prices have been resilient in recent months, in this article I analyze Livent to see if it’s a good alternative to Albemarle in this investing theme or if its shares may also be interesting to add to my portfolio, beyond my current exposure to lithium through its larger competitor. Company Overview Livent Corporation was formed and incorporated by FMC Corporation (FMC), a chemical company, as FMC Lithium in 2018, and later was renamed to Livent. FMC transferred most of its lithium assets to Livent during a restructuring process, in exchange of Livent’s common stock. Livent was then listed on the stock exchange in October 2018, and FMC completed the spin-off of the remaining shares of Livent back in March 2019. Since then, Livent has been operating as an independent company, and its shares are nowadays distributed by a large number of shareholders, including institutional and retail investors. It currently has a market value of about $5 billion, being a relatively small company by this measure. Livent is a pure-play lithium company with an integrated business model, and its focus is to provide lithium compounds to electric vehicles and broader battery markets. Beyond supplying battery-grade lithium hydroxide, Livent also supplies butyllithium, used for the production of polymers and pharmaceutical products, and a range of specialty lithium compounds, used for example to manufacture lightweight materials for the aerospace industry. Livent is one of the largest lithium companies in the world, with its most important competitors including Albemarle, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), and Ganfeng Lithium (OTCPK:GNENY). The industry is relatively concentrated, considering that the five largest players account for about 50% of annual global production of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), and there are significant barriers to entry, which means established companies enjoy a competitive position that is not easy to challenge. During 2021, the vast majority of its revenue was generated by battery-grade lithium hydroxide and carbonate used for energy storage, a profile that is expected to increase even further in the future, as growing sales of EVs across the globe leads to strong demand for these types of lithium. Revenue diversification (Livent) By geography, the vast majority of Livent’s revenue comes from Asia (about 70% in 2021), as the largest battery manufacturers are located in the region. Livent wants to have a balanced global exposure over the long term, but due to lower labor costs in Asia compared to other geographies Livent’s revenue profile is not likely to change much in the near future. Revenue by region (Livent) Growth Strategy As a pure-play in the lithium industry, Livent has very good growth prospects over the long-term due to the expected increase in EVs expected in the coming years, which should be a strong support for sustainable demand growth for lithium compounds. Global sales of EVs reached 3.2 million vehicles in 2020 (including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), and are expected to grow to about 45 million by 2030. To benefit from this expected growth, Livent’s strategy is to expand its production capabilities and establish long-term partnerships with auto and battery manufacturers. EV sales (Livent ) At the end of 2021, Livent’s annual production capacity, across its lithium product range, was about 55,000 metric tons. Lithium hydroxide was the largest product, with an annual production capacity of some 25,000 metric tons, with the company having production facilities in the U.S and China. In Lithium carbonate, the company obtains the majority of its lithium from its operations in Argentina. Livent is currently working on the expansion of a lithium hydroxide facility in North Carolina, and an expansion of lithium carbonate facility in Argentina. The new hydroxide unit is expected to be operational in the next few months, while the Argentinian unit during 2023. These two units will increase its annual production capacity by some 25,000 metric tons (5,000 lithium hydroxide and 20,000 lithium carbonate), and Livent is also working on a second expansion project in Argentina that should increase its production by 20,000 metric tons by 2025, with the company expecting to have total production capacity of 60,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate in Argentina by 2025. In lithium hydroxide, the company also has a 50% stake in the Nemaska project in Canada, which is expected to start commercial production in late 2025. Over the long term, Livent wants to increase its production capabilities of lithium hydroxide in multiple geographies, and is targeting annual production capacity of about 150,000 metric tons of both lithium hydroxide and carbonate, or about 3x higher than its current production capacity. As can be seen in the next graph, the vast majority of Livent’s annual capital expenditures over the past three years have been dedicated for growth initiatives, a profile that is not expected to change much over the next few years and should be financed organically from cash flows from operations. Capex (Livent) Regarding its long-term partnerships with established OEMs and battery manufacturers, Livent has made over the past few years supply agreements with some of the leading companies in the auto and battery industries, such as Tesla (TSLA), BMW Group (OTCPK:BMWYY), General Motors (GM), or LG Chem (OTCPK:LGCLF). Therefore, Livent should not have any issue from a customer demand perspective, which means that its main issue is to meet rising customer demand through its expansion projects over the coming years. LTHM Stock: Financial Overview & Valuation Regarding its financial performance, Livent has reported improved financial numbers in recent quarters, as the company benefited both from higher lithium prices and positive operating leverage. In 2021, its revenues amounted to $420 million, an increase of 46% YoY, and reached breakeven as the company reported a small bottom-line profit of $1 million based on GAAP. Its adjusted cash from operations were $39 million, while capex was $119 million, which means that Livent did not generate enough cash to finance investments during the last year. During the first six months of 2022, Livent achieved record financial performance, and raised its full-year guidance due to a better pricing environment than expected. Additionally, during the quarter, the company also entered into a long-term supply agreement with General Motors, including an advance payment of $198 million to Livent, which is quite positive for Livent to organically finance its capex plans.Seeking Alpha • Oct 04
Livent: This May Be The Time To Press Pause
Summary With favorable macroeconomic conditions aiding the company's growth story, Livent Corporation stock has handsomely beaten the market this year. Livent is well-positioned to be a big winner in the long run but the focus of this analysis is to project what the foreseeable future holds for the company. The correlation between Livent and Tesla stocks is rising, which is an interesting development worth monitoring. In a year that has been characterized by declining stock prices, rising interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, and predictions for a painful economic recession, Livent Corporation (LTHM) stock has gained just over 20%, beating the market handsomely. Livent has topped Wall Street earnings estimates in each of the last 3 quarters and the company boosted its guidance for the upcoming quarter based on projections for higher prices across the lithium product spectrum. Livent's robust earnings have had a lot to do with the market outperformance of LTHM this year. As a pure-play lithium producer that operates one of the lowest-cost lithium carbonate production facilities in Argentina, Livent is well-positioned to benefit from rising lithium prices as the company realizes higher margins than most of its peers when end prices rise. This understanding among investors has been key to Livent's market success this year, but with the demand environment changing, it's time to evaluate whether Livent can continue to beat the market in the coming quarters. As I have highlighted in previous articles, I do not doubt that Livent will be a big winner in the long term, so the focus of this analysis is to project LTHM stock movements in the foreseeable future. The outlook for lithium prices Lithium is likely to be in short supply through 2030 and beyond because of several reasons. The primary reason behind rosy long-term projections for lithium is the rise of electric vehicles. Lithium-ion batteries are gaining efficiency, and these performance improvements are creating a level playing field for EVs to take on gasoline-powered vehicles. With leading automakers unveiling ambitious plans to electrify their fleet of vehicles, the EV industry is continuing to gain momentum, thereby resulting in strong demand for lithium batteries. Lithium miners and refiners are striking lucrative long-term deals with large-scale automakers today thanks to the important role lithium plays in the electrification strategy of these automakers. Lithium-ion batteries are used in grid energy storage facilities as well, and with the world moving toward a greener more sustainable future, there is a robust demand for energy storage systems. As renewable energy goes mainstream, therefore, lithium producers will come out as big winners. The lack of meaningful competition to replace lithium-ion batteries with more sustainable solutions is another driver of growth for lithium. It would likely take decades to develop alternatives to lithium-ion batteries that offer comparable performance efficiencies at a similar cost. According to the Boston Consulting Group, the supply of lithium will fall short of the demand by 2030 even in the best-case scenario. The shortages, according to BCG, will become visible beyond 2025 as planned new extraction facilities will also fail to contribute enough to the global supply of lithium to meet the rising demand. Exhibit 1: Forecast for lithium demand and supply Boston Consulting Group Source: Boston Consulting Group The aforementioned tailwinds will push Livent's earnings higher in the long run, which in return should lead to higher stock prices. But will there be a sharp pullback in LTHM stock before taking off? The rally in lithium prices started in mid-2021 with the global economy coming back strongly from the virus-induced recession. From around $14,000/tonne in mid-2021, spot prices increased to over $75,000/tonne earlier this year before cooling down. Making matters worse (or better if you are a Livent shareholder), the supply of lithium could not keep up pace with the rising demand as new capacity additions remained limited in the last 15 months. According to data from Fitch Solutions, only 4 mines with an expected capacity of 75kt will begin production this year but 11 new projects are expected to go online next year. Exhibit 2: Battery-grade lithium prices Fastmarkets Source: Fastmarkets With new projects coming online in the next few quarters at a time when global economic growth is slowing, I am not ready to rule out the possibility of a notable yet temporary decline in lithium prices in the coming quarters. Argentina recently announced an investment of $4.2 billion to double its lithium carbonate production capacity by 2023, and 13 new projects are expected to go online as the country achieves this objective. Exhibit 3: Argentina's lithium investments BNamericas Source: BNamericas Bolivia is also aggressively investing in lithium production while China is focused on boosting the availability of lithium through investments in Africa. The current forecasts in circulation, in my opinion, fail to factor in the negative impact on lithium demand that may occur as a result of a further slowdown in global economic growth. This leaves room for lithium demand to come lower than expected at a time when supply is increasing, leading to a short-lived oversupply of lithium. If this risk materializes, I believe Mr. Market will punish Livent and its peers given that Livent, at a forward P/S multiple of around 7, is pricing in a lot of future growth already.分析記事 • Sep 26
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM)?
Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial...Seeking Alpha • Sep 12
Livent falls 8% as Vertical Research downgrades to Hold on stock's outperformance
Livent (NYSE:LTHM) fell as much as 7.9% on Monday after Vertical Research downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy due to its outperformance YTD amid a surge in lithium prices. The brokerage hiked LTHM's price target to $35 from $33, implying 1.6% potential upside to its last close. Vertical Research's rating on LTHM contrasts bullish sell-side ratings (6 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 7 Hold). SA Quant's rating on LTHM is Strong Buy, with the stock scoring highly in factor grades growth and momentum. Shares of LTHM gained ~30% YTD.分析記事 • Sep 05
Be Wary Of Livent (NYSE:LTHM) And Its Returns On Capital
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Seeking Alpha • Aug 30
Livent Stock: Riding On The Hyper Growth Wave
Summary It is evident that more and more analysts are taking notice of this excellent stock, given the increased coverage on the lithium supply chain now. With aggressive Capex investments, LTHM is growing its global supply chain in accordance with the US free trade agreement. That secures its position in the domestic supply chain ahead. With analysts projecting a supply chain rebalance only by 2027, it is likely that lithium prices will remain elevated, triggering massive growth and profitability for LTHM ahead. Investment Thesis Livent Corporation (LTHM) has obviously rallied post FQ2'22 earnings, albeit at a slower rate than expected. This is partly attributed to the stock market's overlooking LTHM's potential as a minor lithium player in the US with a market cap of $5.89B, compared to Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB) at $33.75B. Otherwise, in comparison with SQM (NYSE:SQM) based in Chile, with a market cap of $29.99B. Nonetheless, it is evident that Mr. Market is slowly taking notice of this stellar stock, since the recent rising tide has also lifted most boats in the sector. Lithium Forecasts By McKinsey & Company McKinsey & Company The fact remains that lithium is in short supply today due to the massive unmet demand globally, with significant new supplies expected only by the end of 2024, according to McKinsey & Company. However, the global supply chain is only likely to be rebalanced by 2027, as evident from the chart. Therefore, we expect lithium prices to remain elevated for a while longer, since batteries will also be commonly used in the booming green energy sector, expected to grow from $881.7B in 2020 to $1.97T in 2030 at a CAGR of 8.4%, beyond the typical application in EVs and industrial uses. This will directly impact LTHM's growth and profitability over the next few years, as the company aggressively expands its capacity by nearly five-fold through 2030. With over 5.5K GWh of lithium-ion battery demand projected by 2030, it is evident that battery producers globally are struggling to keep up with the insatiable demand, since the current global installed capacity is estimated only at 948 GWh as of May 2022. North America currently accounts for a minimal 6.6% of the total capacity at 63 GWh, which is expected to grow aggressively to over 580 GWh by 2027 at a 44.8% CAGR. As a result, there is no reason to believe that the Feds will be able to destroy long-term lithium demand through the interest rate hikes, merely a moderate deceleration in the short term, before accelerating afterward. Livent investors, hold on to this gold mine for long-term growth and investing. LTHM Continues To Benefit From Elevated Lithium Demand & Prices S&P Capital IQ In FQ2'22, LTHM reports revenues of $218.7M and gross margins of 47.2%, representing an impressive increase of 213.9% and 25.9 percentage points YoY, respectively. This has drastically improved its profitability, with net incomes of $60M and net income margins of 27.4% reported in the latest quarter. It indicated a tremendous growth of 923% and 21 percentage points YoY, respectively. S&P Capital IQ In the meantime, LTHM has also been growing its capabilities reasonably to $14.6M of operating expenses in FQ2'22, representing an increase of 2% YoY or 37.7% from FQ2'19 levels. However, the company has been reporting improved profitability due to the exponential growth in its revenues thus far. The ratio of its operating expenses to its growing sales has been moderating thus far, to 6.7% of its revenues and 14.1% of its gross profits by FQ2'22. This represents a massive improvement compared to 14%/ 65.6% in FQ2'21 and 17.4%/ 110.8% in FQ2'20, respectively. S&P Capital IQ As a direct result of the company's aggressive Capex investments, LTHM has yet to report positive Free Cash Flow ((FCF)) generation in FQ2'22, with an FCF of -$17.5M and an FCF margin of -8%. However, long-term investors need not worry, since the massive $228.1M Capex investments in the last twelve months would eventually be top and bottom line accretive, due to the expansion in its output capacity through 2030. FCF profitability will come soon enough by FY2024, if not earlier. LTHM Is Riding On The Hyper Growth Wave S&P Capital IQ Over the next three years, LTHM is expected to report revenue and adj. net income growth at a CAGR of 42.09% and 42.31% ( adjusting for the pandemic lows ), respectively. These numbers represent a certain moderation of -8.5% in consensus estimates since our previous bullish analysis in June 2022. Thereby, indicating Mr. Market's slight pessimism post the Fed's hawkish comments, potentially putting downwards pressure on lithium prices moving forward. Nonetheless, investors need not fret since consensus estimates project that LTHM will report exemplary revenues of $842M and net incomes of $271M in FY2022, indicating an optimistic increase of 4.9% and 11.9% since previous estimates in June 2022, respectively. These would represent tremendous YoY growth of 200% and 45166.66%, respectively, given the management's recently raised FY2022 guidance due to the higher realized pricing across all lithium products. It is no wonder then that the LTHM stock had rallied by 26.8% in the weeks post FQ2'22 earnings, significantly aided by the recent passing of the Inflation Reduction Act. The latter would aid the widespread adoption of the domestic EV battery supply chain in the US, given the highly attractive $7.5K tax credit for trucks, vans, and SUVs under $80K and cars up to $55K. This was already evident in General Motors' (GM) recent prepayment of $198M to LTHM for a guaranteed six-year supply of lithium, on top of its previously agreed deal for 1M EVs capacity by 2025. Thereby, triggering a steady capacity growth and stock price appreciation ahead - especially since the raw material would remain in tight supply through 2027. The global EV market is also expected to grow tremendously from $163.01B in 2020 to $823.75B in 2030 at a CAGR of 18.2%, thereby catapulting the global lithium-ion battery market from $36.9B in 2020 to $193.13B in 2028 at an impressive CAGR of 23.3%. Therefore, LTHM is on track to expand as a better-covered EV stock shortly, which could lead to an upward revision of its stock price for long-term investing. EV investors, do not miss this speeding stock with monster capabilities.Seeking Alpha • Aug 10
Livent Corporation: Aggressively Growing Pure Lithium Play
Livent is a pure-play lithium stock, thriving in an industry with robust growth alongside the Electric Vehicle market. The company has experienced significant growth in the most recent quarter; and with lithium prices more than doubled since Q1, current quarter results are expected to be even better. The company has leveraged the robust growth and is investing in growth initiatives that aim to more than triple its production capacity by 2030. I am bullish on the stock because of the strong industry outlook and the company's aggressive growth initiatives. Investment Thesis Livent Corporation (LTHM), one of the top lithium-mining companies globally, has outperformed the market by a wide margin in the previous year and YTD, in line with its underlying commodity price, which has risen over 4.3 times within the past 52 weeks. Data by YCharts In a previous Albemarle (ALB) article, I shed light on the bullish trajectory of the lithium market, which forms a significant portion of bullish sentiments for lithium stocks. That thesis still stands and covers the industry-specific aspects of Livent. This article focuses on the company's growth initiatives in line with those already discussed macroeconomic factors. Livent has leveraged the rising market pricing to fund its expansion, expecting to more than triple its Carbonate and almost double its Hydroxide production capacity. The aggressive growth of the company is a major reason for me to rate the stock as a "buy." The Company Livent is a fully integrated pure-play lithium company, producing performance lithium compounds, primarily used in lithium batteries, specialty polymers, and chemical synthesis applications. The company operates out of Salar del Hombre Muerto, Argentina, with over 2 decades of low-cost lithium extraction experience. Livent Investors Presentation Its largest market is in Asia, accounting for about 75% of its revenue, followed by about 15% in North America and 10% in Europe, the Middle East, & Africa. China is the largest customer of the company's products, accounting for about 41% of sales in the most recent quarter (MRQ). Livent recently upped its stake in Nemaska Lithium, Inc. (NMKEF), a fully integrated lithium hydroxide (LiOH) project, from 25% to 50% by issuing 17.5 million shares to expand its footprint and solidify its position in North America. Growth and Expansion Even though Livent Corp. serves various markets, it attributes a significant portion of its demand surge to the rise of electric vehicles ((EV)) and other energy storage markets. This is true for many lithium producers as the market demand for lithium has been directly correlated with EV demand growth. S&P Global reports that US battery manufacturing capacity is expected to increase tenfold between 2021 and 2025, with companies planning to expand battery capacity this decade in the US and increase domestic battery production for EV product lines, including automakers General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Toyota Motor North America. Accordingly, Livent's focus on LiOH, an integral part of the most successful Li-ion batteries, has been increasing, accounting for about half of the company's revenues. This was a primary driver for Livent's Tesla (TSLA) agreement, which ushered the stock into an upward trajectory in the late 2020s. Livent Investors Presentation The positive market outlook and continued local government support led to the company resuming its capacity expansion projects in Argentina and the US, backed by long-term supply agreements. Subsequently, in 2022, it announced plans for second and third capacity expansions, aiming to improve its year-end projected capacity for lithium carbonate to about 100 kilo-tonnes and LiOH, including the Nemaska project, to almost 90 kilo-tonnes per annum, by 2030. Livent Investors Presentation This capacity increase is directly in response to the aggressively growing EV market, where the lithium demand is expected to outpace the supply, as evident by the recent 69% YoY and 22% QoQ surge in US lithium imports. At the same time, lithium prices are currently through the roof, multiple times higher than in 2021. Benchmark Minerals According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the price of seaborne lithium hydroxide at the end of April was $80,000 per metric ton CIF North Asia, more than double from $31,700/mt at the beginning of 2022 and almost 8 times higher than the $9,000/mt at the start of 2021. Meanwhile, lithium carbonate was priced at $75,000/mt, doubled from $33,800/mt at the start of 2022, and over 10 times higher than the start of 2021 from $6,350/mt. This perfectly aligns with the previously set bullish forecasts of the lithium pricing market. Livent's MRQ results already show significant growth with an over 50% topline growth and an EBITDA growth of over 6 times, indicating significantly high YoY topline growth in the company's upcoming earnings reports if it maintains its sales volumes. This is in accordance with its recently revised 2022 revenue guidance of $795 million at the midpoint, about 40% higher than its previous guidance of around $570 million. Seeking Alpha Usually, I am not in favor of buying into companies that solely rely on a growth factor based on rising commodity prices because it is often an unsustainable growth. However, Livent has strategically leveraged the rising prices to fund its future growth with a CAPEX to sales ratio of over 37%, as it expects a forward operating cash flow to grow by almost 3x. Valuation LTHM stock trades at a ludicrous TTM earnings multiple of about 80x and a forward multiple of 18.5x compared to the industry medians of 13.3x and 11.2x. Similarly, all relative valuation measures paint the stock as overvalued, except the forward PEG ratio of 0.03x, which is 97% lower than the industry median of 1.21x.Seeking Alpha • Jul 26
General Motors and Livent sign long-term Lithium Hydroxide supply agreement
General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Livent (NYSE:LTHM) announced a significant multi-year sourcing agreement wherein the latter will supply the former with battery-grade lithium hydroxide made primarily from lithium extracted at Livent's brine-based operations in South America. Lithium hydroxide is crucial to GM's plans to make higher performance, higher mileage EVs. The lithium hydroxide from Livent will be used in GM's Ultium battery cathodes, which will power electric vehicles such as the recently revealed Chevrolet Blazer EV, Chevrolet Silverado EV, GMC HUMMER EV and Cadillac LYRIQ. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide will be provided over a 6-year period starting 2025. Jeff Morrison, GM VP, Global Purchasing and Supply Chain stated, "Importantly, GM now has contractual commitments secured with strategic partners for all battery raw material to support our goal of 1M units of EV capacity by the end of 2025." LTHM shares trading 6.4% higher premarket.分析記事 • Jul 20
Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...分析記事 • Jun 23
Should You Investigate Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM) At US$23.44?
Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over...分析記事 • Jun 01
Investors Could Be Concerned With Livent's (NYSE:LTHM) Returns On Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Ideally, a...分析記事 • May 06
New Forecasts: Here's What Analysts Think The Future Holds For Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM)
Celebrations may be in order for Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a...Seeking Alpha • May 04
Lithium Rush: It's High Time To Buy Livent
The lithium market will remain in a deficit until 2024 due to high demand from auto manufacturers. Due to acceleration in the adaptation of cars to new sources of energy, demand for batteries will increase. High demand for batteries will generate around 80% of demand for lithium as early as 2025, compared to 60% in 2019. Persistent high price of raw materials creates a favorable economic environment for lithium feedstock producers such as Livent, which is our favorite.Seeking Alpha • Apr 04
Livent Corporation: Thriving On Expansion And Logistical Success
Despite an increase in cost of revenues by 31.67%, Livent still registered a 134% increase in gross profit at $93.6 million in 2021 from $40 million in 2020. With the new Presidential directive, Livent will benefit from among other things, cheap government loans lower project costs and quicker expansion opportunities in the US. Industrial action in South America has hampered growth for Livent. Livent is yet to announce expansion in Chile despite the nation having the highest lithium reserve.分析記事 • Mar 31
Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...分析記事 • Feb 24
Party Time: Brokers Just Made Major Increases To Their Livent Corporation (NYSE:LTHM) Earnings Forecasts
Livent Corporation ( NYSE:LTHM ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...分析記事 • Feb 23
Returns On Capital At Livent (NYSE:LTHM) Paint A Concerning Picture
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...決済の安定と成長
配当データの取得
安定した配当: LTHMの 1 株当たり配当が過去に安定していたかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。
増加する配当: LTHMの配当金が増加しているかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。
配当利回り対市場
| Livent 配当利回り対市場 |
|---|
| セグメント | 配当利回り |
|---|---|
| 会社 (LTHM) | n/a |
| 市場下位25% (US) | 1.4% |
| 市場トップ25% (US) | 4.2% |
| 業界平均 (Chemicals) | 1.7% |
| アナリスト予想 (LTHM) (最長3年) | 0% |
注目すべき配当: LTHMは最近配当金を報告していないため、配当金支払者の下位 25% に対して同社の配当利回りを評価することはできません。
高配当: LTHMは最近配当金を報告していないため、配当金支払者の上位 25% に対して同社の配当利回りを評価することはできません。
株主への利益配当
収益カバレッジ: LTHMの 配当性向 を計算して配当金の支払いが利益で賄われているかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。
株主配当金
キャッシュフローカバレッジ: LTHMが配当金を報告していないため、配当金の持続可能性を計算できません。
高配当企業の発掘
企業分析と財務データの現状
| データ | 最終更新日（UTC時間） |
|---|---|
| 企業分析 | 2024/01/05 07:16 |
| 終値 | 2024/01/03 00:00 |
| 収益 | 2023/09/30 |
| 年間収益 | 2022/12/31 |
データソース
企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。
| パッケージ | データ | タイムフレーム | 米国ソース例 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 会社財務 | 10年 |
| |
| アナリストのコンセンサス予想 | +プラス3年 |
|
|
| 市場価格 | 30年 |
| |
| 所有権 | 10年 |
| |
| マネジメント | 10年 |
| |
| 主な進展 | 10年 |
|
* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。
特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。
分析モデルとスノーフレーク
本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。
シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。
業界およびセクターの指標
私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。
アナリスト筋
Arcadium Lithium plc 16 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。12
| アナリスト | 機関 |
|---|---|
| John Eade | Argus Research Company |
| William Selesky | Argus Research Company |
| Stephen V. Byrne | BofA Global Research |