Seeking Alpha • Aug 30
Premier Financial Corp.: Use The Weakness
Summary
Loan growth is impressive, and we expect better earnings as net interest margins continue to improve.
Asset quality improvement is a strength.
Return metrics dipped in the short term but should ramp into 2023 based on better margins moving forward.
Nice buyback and growing dividend.
Premier Financial Corp. (PFC) is a regional bank, and insurance company, that we think can be comfortably bought under $27 a share. The rising rate environment is having a predictably favorable effect on net interest income in most banks and Premier is no exception. This is driving margin improvement and when combined with outstanding loan growth, the company is in great shape to battle a short-term flat to inverted yield curve. This is a growing regional bank based out of Ohio. It currently operates 74 branches and 12 loan offices in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. While the company has had to adjust to a rising rate environment, and the recently reported earnings reflected some of these pressures, we think you can own this solidly yielding dividend paying bank going forward. We are pretty bullish on the bank, and the sector, moving forward. In this column, we discuss a number of the key metrics that we follow in the many regional banks we cover that you should be aware of if you are considering buying this stock. In our opinion, the return metrics are strong. On top of that, the dividend yield is solid at 4.5%. The bank has raised its dividend each year as well the last few years. Ultimately, we believe rates being higher means most banks are going to do very well in 2023. We think shares are a buy on weakness.
Premier Financial Corp. Q2 2022 headline performance
Thanks to some tremendous growth in loans as well as a growing deposit base, as well as decent margins, Premier Financial Corp. is performing well. However, headline performance came in beneath expectations. The revenues were about flat from a year ago.
In Q2 2022, Premier Financial Corp. reported a top-line revenue figure of $73.5 million. The bank saw a 0.9% decrease in this key metric year-over-year. This was well below estimates by $1.6 million. Overall performance has been mixed in the sector, at least in terms of the banks we have been examining thus far. Some banks have seen flat to down revenues versus last year, while others saw strong increases. Because this is a smaller regional bank it is subject to revenue fluctuation, but the higher loan balances and decent portfolio yields are setting the bank up for success.
There also was an uptick in loan loss provisions this quarter and in the first half of 2022. The provision for credit losses increased to $6.5 million rising from a credit of $3.9 million in Q2 2021. This increase was primarily a result of the huge increase in overall loans on the books, as well as the general macro situation, the bank was preparing for current conditions, which are a bit more questionable than a year ago. That said, net income for Q2 2022 was $22.4 million or $0.63 per share.
There was also an increase in net interest income of $59.3 million, and again there was a loan loss provision of $6.5 million. While earnings dipped from a year ago, largely due to these big provisions, better days are ahead with the prospects of a still strong economy in 2022 and the continuing benefit from better interest rates. We expect net interest income to continue to improve moving forward, but were also impressed with loan growth.
Premier Financial Corp.'s loans and deposits
Growth in loans and deposits are key for all banks, but especially regional banks which have simpler balance sheets than the international mega-cap type banks. Going back to 2020 we want to remind you that the PPP loans of the time helped boost many regional banks' loan portfolio balances, so a direct comp is somewhat misleading because PPP loans for Premier continue to decrease as a source of income. As we move forward, growth in both of these metrics is critical, but PPP loans are contributing less and less, as they were a short-term boost.
The company saw immense loan growth. In fact, loans held jumped big, growing $494.1 million, or up 35.7% over Q2 2021. That is superb. While PPP loan differences accounted for some of this, there was also an increase in mortgage loans, stemming from increased competition among banks and originators. It is worth noting that commercial mortgages have rebounded, and grew significantly since a year ago, growing $314 million. Residential loans were also up $139.2 million or 37.8%. PPP loans were down to just $4.6 million total at the end of Q2. Overall, loan demand is robust, despite the rate shock hitting consumers.
That said, total deposits increased from $6.32 billion in Q1 2022 to $6.52 billion at the end of Q2 2022. That means there are more assets on hand to lend out to customers. As rates rise this is critical. The bank will be able to lend this money out at much higher rates in H2 2022 and in 2023. The so-called spread on what is lent out vs. the cost of funds should widen even further in 2023. The growth is welcomed. That said, we need to have a sense of trends in the quality of the assets on hand.
Premier Financial Corp.'s asset quality
We love to see loan growth but we need a sense of the quality of assets on the books. We mentioned provisions for loan losses. Some banks have seen huge improvements on this front, and as we mentioned, given the much larger loan base and the macro risk out there, Premier had $6.5 million provision.
Another key metric to watch is the bank's allowance for credit losses. Well, the allowance for credit losses to total loans was just 1.14% at the end of Q2 2022. This was an 11 basis point improvement from the start of Q2 2022, and is down from 1.33% of all loans a year ago. This is solid improvement. Nonperforming assets were just $35 million, or 0.44% of assets at the end of Q2 2022, which is a big sequential improvement from $47.6 million to start Q2 2022.