お知らせ • Feb 13
Tod's Rises 17% on L Catterton Bids to Help Owner's Delisting Plan Shares in TOD'S S.p.A. rose 17.4%, after private equity firm L Catterton offered to buy 36% of the luxury shoemaker and take it private, in agreement with the Della Valle founding family. Shares rose to EUR 42.7 each by 08:35 GMT, just below the EUR 43 per share offered by the investment firm backed by France's LVMH, which values Tod's at just over EUR 1.4 billion. The move follows a failed attempt in 2022 by the Della Valles, who own 64.5% of Tod's, to take the company private. In addition to the eponymous brand, famous for its Gommino loafers, Tod's also owns the iconic Roger Vivier shoe brand, as well as the Fay and Hogan labels. The Della Valle family refrained however from still taking Tod's private, as they had said they could do, by merging it into their DeVa Finance vehicle. But L Catterton said it plans to merge Tod's into the vehicle used to launch the offer if the bid fails to reach the delisting threshold. CEO and founder Diego Della Valle is tendering its 10.45% stake in Tod's, while retaining another 54% together with his brother Andrea. LVMH will keep its 10% stake and L Catterton will own the remainder of Tod's if the offer is successful. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 26% After last week's 26% share price gain to €43.04, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 30x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Luxury industry in Italy. Total returns to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €43.95 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €1.14b to €1.15b. EPS estimate increased from €1.36 to €1.50 per share. Net income forecast to grow 7.3% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Italy. Consensus price target up from €41.48 to €42.46. Share price rose 3.6% to €39.18 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 16
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: €0.70 (up from €0.18 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: €1.03b (up 14% from FY 2021). Net income: €23.1m (up €29.0m from FY 2021). Profit margin: 2.2% (up from net loss in FY 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 23%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 26
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 21% share price decline to €31.90, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 36x. Average forward P/E is 21x in the Luxury industry in Italy. Total loss to shareholders of 25% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €61.62 per share. Reported Earnings • Sep 09
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.02 (vs €0.63 loss in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0.02 (up from €0.63 loss in 1H 2021). Revenue: €476.0m (up 18% from 1H 2021). Net income: €755.0k (up €21.5m from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 0.2% (up from net loss in 1H 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.6% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 4% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 12
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: €0.18 loss per share (up from €2.21 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: €900.4m (up 39% from FY 2020). Net loss: €5.94m (loss narrowed 92% from FY 2020). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 64%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 9.3%, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 78 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 03
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 22% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from €846.9m to €864.7m. EPS estimate increased from -€0.73 per share to -€0.57 per share. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target of €44.94 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 5.5% to €49.16 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 27
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from €847.4m to €862.9m. EPS estimate increased from -€0.73 per share to -€0.59 per share. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €44.94. Share price rose 6.3% to €47.50 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 29
Price target increased to €44.97 Up from €41.58, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 9.3% below last closing price of €49.60. Stock is up 92% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.74 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.21 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 25
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.83 to -€0.74 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €844.3m. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 12% next year. Consensus price target of €44.47 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.8% to €53.90 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 12
First half 2021 earnings released: €0.63 loss per share (vs €2.44 loss in 1H 2020) The company reported a solid first half result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €405.1m (up 55% from 1H 2020). Net loss: €20.7m (loss narrowed 74% from 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 98 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Sep 09
Price target increased to €41.67 Up from €38.47, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 21% below last closing price of €53.00. Stock is up 132% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Apr 25
Price target increased to €26.40 Up from €23.87, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is 33% below last closing price of €39.32. Stock is up 40% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Mar 13
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €647.0m (down 30% from FY 2019). Net loss: €73.2m (down 258% from profit in FY 2019). Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 13
New 90-day high: €31.54 The company is up 5.0% from its price of €29.98 on 11 December 2020. The Italian market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Luxury industry, which is up 8.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €2.08 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 15
New 90-day high: €30.32 The company is up 29% from its price of €23.56 on 15 September 2020. The Italian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Luxury industry, which is up 34% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €35.55 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 24
New 90-day high: €26.30 The company is up 6.0% from its price of €24.84 on 26 August 2020. The Italian market is also up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it underperformed the Luxury industry, which is up 26% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €30.54 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 14
New 90-day low: €22.74 The company is down 7.0% from its price of €24.50 on 16 July 2020. The Italian market is down 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Luxury industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €28.85 per share.