Upcoming Dividend • May 04
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.049 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 May 2026. Payment date: 28 May 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 5.4%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (7.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.8%). New Risk • Mar 08
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Cash payout ratio: 128% Dividend yield: 5.4% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.4x net interest cover). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (128% cash payout ratio). Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.29 (down from ฿0.43 in FY 2024). Revenue: ฿9.22b (down 16% from FY 2024). Net income: ฿719.9m (down 32% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 9.6% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 17%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 17 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 06
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 8.6% to ฿1.81. The fair value is estimated to be ฿2.27, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 64%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 15% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 58% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to ฿1.76, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 84% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ฿1.94 per share. New Risk • Mar 02
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.9% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.8% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Feb 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from ฿10.2b to ฿9.69b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.378 per share to ฿0.32 per share. Net income forecast to grow 194% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target of ฿2.16 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 6.9% to ฿2.18 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 11
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ฿2.02, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 80% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ฿1.94 per share. Declared Dividend • Nov 19
Dividend of ฿0.021 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.021. Ex-date: 27th November 2025 Payment date: 15th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.3%. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.075 (vs ฿0.16 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.075 (down from ฿0.16 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: ฿2.44b (down 9.5% from 3Q 2024). Net income: ฿183.8m (down 54% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 15% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 42% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 18
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 92% to ฿2.98. The fair value is estimated to be ฿3.79, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 46%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 32% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 111% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 25% After last week's 25% share price gain to ฿2.74, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 71% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ฿3.79 per share. Price Target Changed • Sep 03
Price target increased by 12% to ฿2.21 Up from ฿1.97, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿2.22. Stock is down 55% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.53 for next year compared to ฿0.43 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 21
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 24% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.383 to ฿0.475. Revenue forecast steady at ฿11.4b. Net income forecast to grow 102% next year vs 9.5% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿1.97 to ฿2.09. Share price rose 11% to ฿2.26 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 18
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 7.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.4% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (6.1% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.13 (down from ฿0.18 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: ฿3.27b (up 4.8% from 2Q 2024). Net income: ฿319.4m (down 29% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.8% (down from 14% in 2Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 46% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 42% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 16
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 34% to ฿1.64. The fair value is estimated to be ฿2.08, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 35%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 34% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 73% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • May 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from ฿12.1b to ฿11.5b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.435 per share to ฿0.363 per share. Net income forecast to grow 41% next year vs 2.2% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿2.59 to ฿2.28. Share price fell 8.0% to ฿1.73 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 22
Price target decreased by 12% to ฿2.28 Down from ฿2.59, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of ฿1.72. Stock is down 71% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.36 for next year compared to ฿0.43 last year. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿45.50. Revenue: ฿1.73b (down 40% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ฿111.6m (down 76% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.5% (down from 16% in 1Q 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 16
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 35% to ฿1.88. The fair value is estimated to be ฿1.56, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 10% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.2% per annum over the same time period. Annuncio • Apr 28
Origin Property Public Company Limited Appoints Kanokpailin Wilaikaew as Director Origin Property Public Company Limited at its AGM held on April 28, 205 approved appointment of Ms. Kanokpailin Wilaikaew Director (newly appointed to replace Mr. Lucksananoi Punkrasameewho expressed his intention not to continue for another term). Price Target Changed • Apr 17
Price target decreased by 7.5% to ฿4.30 Down from ฿4.65, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 121% above last closing price of ฿1.94. Stock is down 72% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.44 for next year compared to ฿0.43 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 31
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to ฿2.04, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 79% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from ฿13.2b to ฿12.2b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.605 per share to ฿0.48 per share. Net income forecast to grow 15% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿4.75 to ฿4.65. Share price fell 9.5% to ฿2.68 over the past week. New Risk • Mar 04
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (9.6% net profit margin). Annuncio • Mar 04
Origin Property Public Company Limited Announces Board and Committee Changes Origin Property Public Company Limited at its board meeting held on February 28, 2025, approved the election of Mr. Chatchai Payuhanaveechai, currently holds the positions of Director, Executive Director, and Member of the Risk Management Committee, to additionally assume the roles of Chairman of the Board, Member of the Nomination and Remuneration Committee, and Member of the Corporate Governance and Sustainability Committee, in replacement of Mr. Lucksananoi Punkrasamee, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Independent Director who has expressed his intention not to seek reappointment due to health reasons and has requested to resign from all positions prior to the expiration of his term. This appointment shall be effective from 28 February 2025. New Risk • Mar 03
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 124% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (9.6% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Mar 02
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.43 (down from ฿1.11 in FY 2023). Revenue: ฿12.0b (down 14% from FY 2023). Net income: ฿1.05b (down 61% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.8% (down from 19% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 34%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 37% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Annuncio • Mar 01
Origin Property Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2025 Origin Property Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2025, at 14:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Price Target Changed • Feb 15
Price target decreased by 9.7% to ฿4.75 Down from ฿5.26, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 64% above last closing price of ฿2.90. Stock is down 65% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.65 for next year compared to ฿1.11 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 21
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.021 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 November 2024. Payment date: 13 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 69% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 7.6%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.6%). Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.16 (down from ฿0.41 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ฿2.99b (down 38% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ฿402.1m (down 60% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 14% (down from 21% in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. New Risk • Nov 02
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 7.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (15% net profit margin). New Risk • Sep 21
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 7.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.5% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (15% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 05
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to ฿4.88, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Aug 22
Price target decreased by 12% to ฿5.96 Down from ฿6.78, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of ฿4.34. Stock is down 59% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.76 for next year compared to ฿1.11 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.18 (down from ฿0.36 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ฿3.44b (up 1.8% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ฿451.7m (down 48% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 13% (down from 26% in 2Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Thailand are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 22% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from ฿13.4b to ฿12.9b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.908 per share to ฿0.81 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 12% next year vs 2.7% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand . Consensus price target down from ฿6.78 to ฿6.33. Share price was steady at ฿4.22 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 15
Price target decreased by 7.4% to ฿6.60 Down from ฿7.14, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 57% above last closing price of ฿4.20. Stock is down 59% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.86 for next year compared to ฿1.11 last year. Price Target Changed • May 21
Price target decreased by 11% to ฿7.68 Down from ฿8.59, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of ฿6.15. Stock is down 42% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿1.01 for next year compared to ฿1.11 last year. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.19 (vs ฿0.33 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.19 (down from ฿0.33 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ฿3.21b (down 8.9% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ฿464.1m (down 42% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 14% (down from 23% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from ฿1.33 to ฿1.10 per share. Revenue forecast steady at ฿14.6b. Net income forecast to grow 5.0% next year vs 8.3% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿9.82 to ฿9.22. Share price rose 2.2% to ฿7.10 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 07
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from ฿16.9b to ฿14.2b. EPS estimate fell from ฿1.39 to ฿1.21 per share. Net income forecast to grow 14% next year vs 8.3% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿10.66 to ฿9.82. Share price fell 9.2% to ฿6.90 over the past week. Annuncio • Mar 05
Origin Property Public Company Limited Announces Management Changes Origin Property Public Company Limited had held a Board of Director meeting No. 1/2024 on February 29, 2024, the Board of Director had approved to appoint Mr. Apisit Soonthronchukiat as Chief Marketing & Sales Officer instead of Mr. Siripong Srisawangwong. The above appointment has been agreed by the Remuneration Committees. The appointment will be effective on February 29, 2024 onwards. Declared Dividend • Mar 04
Final dividend reduced to ฿0.30 Dividend of ฿0.30 is 47% lower than last year. Ex-date: 8th May 2024 Payment date: 23rd May 2024 Dividend yield will be 6.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (48% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 31% per year over the past 8 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 33% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Price Target Changed • Mar 04
Price target decreased by 7.3% to ฿9.88 Down from ฿10.66, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 44% above last closing price of ฿6.85. Stock is down 41% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿1.12 for next year compared to ฿1.11 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 02
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: ฿1.11 (down from ฿1.54 in FY 2022). Revenue: ฿15.2b (up 4.3% from FY 2022). Net income: ฿2.72b (down 28% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 18% (down from 26% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 11%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.8% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Feb 08
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (28% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Annuncio • Jan 17
Origin Property Public Company Limited (SET:ORI) acquired 2.94% stake in Netbay Public Company Limited (SET:NETBAY) from Pichit Viwatrujirapong for THB 99.9 million. Origin Property Public Company Limited (SET:ORI) acquired 2.94% stake in Netbay Public Company Limited (SET:NETBAY) from Pichit Viwatrujirapong for THB 99.9 million on January 12, 2024. Origin Property Public Company Limited (SET:ORI) completed the acquisition of 2.94% stake in Netbay Public Company Limited (SET:NETBAY) from Pichit Viwatrujirapong on January 12, 2024. Annuncio • Dec 15
Origin Property Public Company Limited Announces Executive Changes, Effective on January 1, 2024 Origin Property Public Company Limited had held a Board of Director meeting No. 6/2023 on December 15, 2023 the Board of Director had approved significant resolution as follows: Approved to appoint Mr. Siripong Srisawangwong as Chief Design Officer instead of Mr. Somsakul Sangsuwan and appoint Mr. Apisit Soonthronchukiat as Chief Marketing & Sales Officer instead of Mr. Siripong Srisawangwong The above appointment has been agreed by the Remuneration Committees. The appointment will be effective on January 1, 2024 onwards. Approved to appoint Ms. Kanokpailin Wilaikaew as Company Secretary instead of Ms. Warisa Warakansai, the appointment will be effective on January 1, 2024 onwards. New Risk • Nov 20
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (28% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Price Target Changed • Nov 20
Price target decreased by 9.9% to ฿11.12 Down from ฿12.34, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 31% above last closing price of ฿8.50. Stock is down 17% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿1.39 for next year compared to ฿1.54 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.41 (up from ฿0.35 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: ฿4.96b (up 36% from 3Q 2022). Net income: ฿1.00b (up 18% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 20% (down from 23% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 4.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Nov 11
Price target decreased by 9.4% to ฿12.34 Down from ฿13.62, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of ฿8.85. Stock is down 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿1.51 for next year compared to ฿1.54 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 24
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.16 per share at 6.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 August 2023. Payment date: 13 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 50% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 6.9%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.9%). Annuncio • Aug 17
Origin Property Public Company Limited Announces Interim Dividend for Period from 01 January 2023 to 30 June 2023, Payable on 13 September 2023 Origin Property Public Company Limited announced interim cash dividend of THB 0.16 per share for period from 01 January 2023 to 30 June 2023, Date of Board resolution is 15 August 2023; Record date for the right to receive dividends 29 August 2023; Ex-dividend date is 28 August 2023; Payment date is 13 September 2023. Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.36 (vs ฿0.47 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.36 (down from ฿0.47 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ฿3.79b (up 8.8% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ฿873.1m (down 24% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 23% (down from 33% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.5% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year. Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.33 (vs ฿0.30 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.33 (up from ฿0.30 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ฿3.66b (up 5.4% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ฿797.9m (up 8.1% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 22% (in line with 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 32% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • May 02
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.57 per share at 6.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 May 2023. Payment date: 25 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 47% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 6.1%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.1%). Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.35 (up from ฿0.29 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ฿3.65b (down 9.1% from 3Q 2021). Net income: ฿847.9m (up 20% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 23% (up from 18% in 3Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The new board member was not an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 2 experienced directors. 6 highly experienced directors. 4 independent directors (5 non-independent directors). Independent Director Chinapat Visuttipat was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 26
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from ฿15.7b to ฿15.5b. EPS estimate rose from ฿1.33 to ฿1.51. Net income forecast to grow 14% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿13.19. Share price was steady at ฿10.30 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 19
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 August 2022. Payment date: 13 September 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 41% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 5.4%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.2%). Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.47 (up from ฿0.35 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: ฿3.48b (down 2.1% from 2Q 2021). Net income: ฿1.16b (up 36% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 33% (up from 24% in 2Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 7.0%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 9.6%, compared to a 20% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from ฿1.50 to ฿1.33. Revenue forecast unchanged from ฿16.0b at last update. Net income forecast to grow 19% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿13.66 to ฿13.03. Share price was steady at ฿9.60 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: ฿3.78b (flat on 1Q 2021). Net income: ฿737.9m (down 11% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 20% (down from 22% in 1Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.8%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.3%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • May 02
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.42 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 May 2022. Payment date: 24 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 41% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.9%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.1%). Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The new board member was not an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 3 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. 4 independent directors (5 non-independent directors). Independent Director Chinapat Visuttipat was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Full year 2021 results: EPS: ฿1.30 (up from ฿1.09 in FY 2020). Revenue: ฿15.9b (up 46% from FY 2020). Net income: ฿3.19b (up 20% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 20% (down from 24% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 3.9% compared to a 17% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.29 (vs ฿0.29 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a mediocre third quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿4.12b (up 63% from 3Q 2020). Net income: ฿709.0m (down 1.1% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 17% (down from 28% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 22% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Sep 03
Price target increased to ฿11.16 Up from ฿10.40, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 9.4% above last closing price of ฿10.20. Stock is up 46% over the past year. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 17
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.12 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 August 2021. Payment date: 09 September 2021. Trailing yield: 5.8%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.8%). Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.35 (vs ฿0.29 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿3.80b (up 16% from 2Q 2020). Net income: ฿852.0m (up 21% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 22% (in line with 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.34 (vs ฿0.24 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a solid first quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿3.87b (up 74% from 1Q 2020). Net income: ฿825.1m (up 39% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 21% (down from 27% in 1Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 30
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.39 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 07 May 2021. Payment date: 18 May 2021. Trailing yield: 5.3%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (4.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.8%). Price Target Changed • Apr 04
Price target increased to ฿8.67 Up from ฿7.93, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿8.60. Stock is up 118% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 11
Analysts lower revenue estimates to ฿13.2b The 2021 consensus revenue estimate decreased from ฿16.0b. Earning per share (EPS) estimate was also lowered from ฿1.20 to ฿1.14 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 14% next year compared to 12% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. The consensus price target increased from ฿7.93 to ฿8.07. Share price is up 6.8% to ฿7.90 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 09
Price target raised to ฿8.07 Up from ฿7.53, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 7.6% above the current share price of ฿7.50. As of last close, the stock is up 56% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Mar 02
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS ฿1.09 (vs ฿1.24 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: ฿11.1b (down 19% from FY 2019). Net income: ฿2.66b (down 12% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 24% (up from 22% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 02
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 23%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 28%, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 15
New 90-day low: ฿7.10 The company is down 3.0% from its price of ฿7.30 on 17 November 2020. The Thai market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿6.93 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 22
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate increased from ฿1.09 to ฿1.21. No change was made to the revenue estimate which at the last update was ฿12.8b. Net income is expected to grow by 7.5% next year compared to 0.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. The consensus price target increased from ฿7.53 to ฿7.93. Share price is down by 1.2% to ฿7.95 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Jan 01
Upcoming Dividend of ฿0.10 Per Share Will be paid on the 22nd of January to those who are registered shareholders by the 8th of January. The trailing yield of 5.2% is below the top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.5%), but it is higher than industry peers (4.7%). Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 14
New 90-day high: ฿8.05 The company is up 28% from its price of ฿6.30 on 15 September 2020. The Thai market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 19% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿7.81 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 20
Analysts increase EPS estimates to ฿1.16 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate increased from ฿12.5b to ฿12.7b. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from ฿1.04 to ฿1.16 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 4.5% next year compared to 6.8% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. The consensus price target increased from ฿7.30 to ฿7.53. Share price is up 11% to ฿7.90 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 19
New 90-day high: ฿7.95 The company is up 10.0% from its price of ฿7.20 on 21 August 2020. The Thai market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿6.92 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS ฿0.29 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: ฿2.54b (down 29% from 3Q 2019). Net income: ฿717.1m (up 4.3% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 28% (up from 19% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. 
