Reported Earnings • Aug 08
First quarter 2027 earnings released: EPS: JP¥43.15 (vs JP¥44.90 in 1Q 2026) First quarter 2027 results: EPS: JP¥43.15 (down from JP¥44.90 in 1Q 2026). Revenue: JP¥121.9b (up 21% from 1Q 2026). Net income: JP¥4.19b (down 3.9% from 1Q 2026). Profit margin: 3.4% (down from 4.3% in 1Q 2026). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jul 29
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥3,500 Up from JP¥3,080, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 9.9% above last closing price of JP¥3,185. Stock is up 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥246 for next year compared to JP¥246 last year. Declared Dividend • Jul 25
Final dividend increased to JP¥80.00 Dividend of JP¥80.00 is 45% higher than last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2026 Payment date: 2nd December 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (45% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 6.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 25% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Actualités en direct • Jul 03
Mitsubishi UBE Cement Files for Tokyo Exchange Listing to Drive Long-Term Growth Mitsubishi UBE Cement, jointly owned by UBE Corporation and Mitsubishi Materials, has applied for a Tokyo Stock Exchange listing to support long-term growth, including plans to improve domestic profitability and expand overseas with a focus on the U.S.
The company intends to use the planned listing to strengthen its fundraising capacity, tighten governance and allow more flexible allocation of management resources within the cement business.
UBE shares trade at ¥3,202.00, with the stock up 24.7% year to date.
The planned listing of Mitsubishi UBE Cement could gradually reshape how UBE allocates capital and manages risk across its portfolio. A separately listed cement business may have different funding options and governance requirements compared with being held entirely within the existing group structure. Price Target Changed • Jun 17
Price target increased by 12% to JP¥3,080 Up from JP¥2,760, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,154. Stock is up 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥260 for next year compared to JP¥246 last year. Board Change • Jun 04
High number of new directors Managing Executive Officer, CHRO, CCO & Director Ryo Kawamura was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. Annonce • May 13
UBE Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026 UBE Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026. Annonce • Jan 16
UBE Corporation Announces Restructuring of Domestic Production System in Cement-Related Business UBE Cement Corporation announced that, at the Board of Directors meeting, MUCC resolved to cease cement production at Kyushu Plant Kanda District 2 by around the end of March 2027 and to transform the district into a recycling promotion base specializing in various types of waste treatment, as described below. The business environment for the cement industry continues to face pressures from declining domestic demand and reduced profitability in export markets. Against this backdrop, MUCC is advancing initiatives to strengthen profitability and improve asset efficiency, aiming to achieve sustainable growth and enhance corporate value over the medium to long term. Meanwhile, as MUCC seeks to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, a key effort is to improve its thermal energy substitution rate. In particular, MUCC considers it essential to expand the volume of waste treatment for thermal recycling at the Kyushu Plant, which has one of the leading cement production capacities in Japan, and to achieve a thermal energy substitution rate of 50% or more for MUCC as a whole. Under these circumstances, in order to establish an optimal operation system and strengthen the competitiveness of its cement business, MUCC will cease cement production at Kyushu Plant Kanda District 2 by around the end of March 2027 and consolidate operations at Kyushu Plant Kanda District 1, thereby improving the efficiency of production facilities across the entire Kyushu Plant. In addition, to maximize the use of its technologies and further improve the waste treatment substitution rate, MUCC will develop Kyushu Plant Kanda District 2 as a recycling promotion base, utilizing existing facilities for crushing and packing waste plastics and removing chlorine and foreign materials. MUCC will steadily execute these measures to further enhance corporate value and help build a sustainable society. Declared Dividend • Dec 03
First half dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Dividend of JP¥55.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 29th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (186% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (114% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 106% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 63% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥44.90 (vs JP¥49.49 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥44.90 (down from JP¥49.49 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥100.5b (down 13% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥4.36b (down 9.2% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 4.3% (in line with 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Dividend of JP¥55.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 3rd December 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 8.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Reported Earnings • Jun 25
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: JP¥49.60 loss per share (down from JP¥299 profit in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥486.8b (up 4.0% from FY 2024). Net loss: JP¥4.82b (down 117% from profit in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 68%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Jun 24
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 21% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (11% operating cash flow to total debt). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 21% per year over the past 5 years. Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: JP¥49.60 loss per share (down from JP¥299 profit in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥486.8b (up 4.0% from FY 2024). Net loss: JP¥4.82b (down 117% from profit in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 68%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Board Change • Apr 28
High number of new directors There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Outside Director Tatsuya Tanaka was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Annonce • Apr 02
UBE Corporation (TSE:4208) completed the acquisition of Urethane Systems Business of LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft (XTRA:LXS) for approximately €500 million. UBE Corporation (TSE:4208) signed a contract to acquire Urethane Systems Business of LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft (XTRA:LXS) for an enterprise value of €460 million on October 3, 2024. For the last twelve months period ending September 30, 2024, Urethane Systems Business of LANXESS reported total revenue of €265 million and EBITDA of €50 million. The acquisition price is expected to be confirmed based on the price adjustment indicated in the stock purchase agreement. The acquisition will be financed through cash on hand and interest-bearing debt. The Urethane Systems business comprises 5 manufacturing sites globally as well as application laboratories in the USA, Europe and China. UBE Corporation will take over all operations from LANXESS with a total of around 400 employees. LANXESS will use the proceeds to reduce its net debt. The transaction is subject to the approval of the relevant authorities including regulatory approval. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2025. Nomura Holding America, Inc. acted as financial advisor to UBE Corporation. Matthias Töke, Katharina Spenner LL.M., Joachim Fröhlich LL.M., Katharina Weiner, Daniel Bork, Christoph Becker, Ariane Schaaf, Simone (Bach) Rieken LL.M., Johannes M. Baumann, LL.M., Christian Atzler, Christian Vocke, Richard Raoul Stefanink, Patrick H. Wilkening, Markus Hecht, Christian Reichel and Nicolas Kredel LL.M. of Baker & Mckenzie Partnerschaft Von Rechtsanwälten Wirtschaftsprüfern,Steuerberatern Und Solicitors acted as legal advisor to UBE Corporation. Masahiro Inaba, Byron Frost and Tetsuo Tsujimoto of Baker & McKenzie (Gaikokuho Joint Enterprise) acted as legal advisor to UBE Corporation.
UBE Corporation (TSE:4208) completed the acquisition of Urethane Systems Business of LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft (XTRA:LXS) for approximately €500 million on April 1, 2025. All relevant antitrust authorities had granted the necessary approvals for the transaction Annonce • Mar 01
UBE Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 12, 2025 UBE Corporation announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 12, 2025 Declared Dividend • Dec 04
First half dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥55.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 27th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (53% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 8.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 45% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Nov 09
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 15% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥46.20 loss per share (vs JP¥55.26 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥46.20 loss per share (down from JP¥55.26 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥127.7b (up 17% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥4.49b (down 184% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • Oct 31
UBE Corporation Revises Earnings Forecast for the First Half of Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025 UBE Corporation revised earnings forecast for the First Half of fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. For the period,the company expected net sales of JPY 243,000 Million operating profit of JPY 6,000 Million and profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 300 million or JPY 3.09 per basic share as compared to previous guidance of net sales of JPY 238,000 Million operating profit of JPY 7,500 Million and profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 8,000 million or JPY 82.41 per basic share. Reasons for the Revision: Net sales are expected to exceed the previous forecast due to an increase in the selling price of elastomers as a result of rising raw material prices, despite sluggish sales of certain products in the Specialty Products Segment. Operating profit is projected to be lower than the previous forecast due to the impact of the lower of cost or market method on caprolactam, nylon polymers, and other products, in the Polymers & Chemicals Segment. Ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of parent are expected to be significantly lower than previously forecast due to the posting of a share of loss of entities accounted for using equity method following the dissolution of LOTTE UBE SYNTHETIC RUBBER SDN. BHD., an equity method affiliate. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥55.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 04 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Aug 06
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥49.49 (vs JP¥37.67 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥49.49 (up from JP¥37.67 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥115.4b (up 5.6% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥4.80b (up 31% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 3.3% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to JP¥2,185, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Chemicals industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 12% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,711 per share. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥55.00. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 4th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (35% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (49% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 28% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jun 26
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥299 (up from JP¥72.25 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥468.2b (down 5.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥29.0b (up JP¥36.0b from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from net loss in FY 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 31%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Jun 15
Price target increased by 9.8% to JP¥3,092 Up from JP¥2,817, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of JP¥2,735. Stock is up 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥301 for next year compared to JP¥299 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥499.9b to JP¥515.7b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥265 to JP¥301 per share. Net income forecast to grow 0.8% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥2,817 to JP¥3,092. Share price was steady at JP¥2,735 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥299 (up from JP¥72.25 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥468.2b (down 5.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥29.0b (up JP¥36.0b from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from net loss in FY 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 31%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 14
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 20% to JP¥3,014. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,489, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 54%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 19% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Mar 27
Price target increased by 8.3% to JP¥2,817 Up from JP¥2,600, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥2,750. Stock is up 33% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥230 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥72.25 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥50.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 01 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 65% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.6%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.1%). Annonce • Mar 02
UBE Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 13, 2024 UBE Corporation announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 13, 2024 Annonce • Feb 08
UBE Corporation Announces Appointment of Hideo Tamada as Director, Effective April 1, 2024 UBE Corporation announced Hideo Tamada as Director from Representative Director Senior Managing Executive Officer, Effective from April 1, 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥113 (vs JP¥8.39 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥113 (up from JP¥8.39 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥114.9b (down 7.1% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥10.9b (up JP¥11.7b from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 9.5% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 54% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥55.26 (vs JP¥62.67 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥55.26 (up from JP¥62.67 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥108.9b (down 15% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥5.36b (up JP¥11.4b from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.9% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥50.00 per share at 3.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 04 December 2023. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.7%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Buying Opportunity • Sep 20
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 9.7%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,363, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 6.6% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Aug 08
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥37.67 (vs JP¥59.25 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥37.67 (down from JP¥59.25 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥109.2b (down 6.0% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥3.66b (down 36% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.3% (down from 4.9% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 38% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 01
Price target increased by 13% to JP¥2,537 Up from JP¥2,245, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥2,471. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥260 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥72.25 last year. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2023 earnings released: JP¥72.25 loss per share (vs JP¥249 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: JP¥72.25 loss per share (down from JP¥249 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥494.7b (down 25% from FY 2022). Net loss: JP¥7.01b (down 129% from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 08
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -JP¥40.20 to -JP¥51.14 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥506.1b. Chemicals industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 0.7% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥2,137. Share price was steady at JP¥2,088 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥45.00 per share at 4.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 30 June 2023. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.8%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -JP¥26.80 to -JP¥30.93 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥505.5b. Chemicals industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 1.3% next year. Consensus price target of JP¥2,103 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.4% to JP¥2,001 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 161% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥516.5b to JP¥508.5b. Losses expected to increase from JP¥10.26 per share to JP¥26.80. Chemicals industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 6.6% next year. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,187 to JP¥2,103. Share price rose 3.8% to JP¥2,069 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 20
Price target decreased by 7.3% to JP¥2,103 Down from JP¥2,270, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥2,069. Stock is down 5.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥26.80 compared to earnings per share of JP¥249 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥8.39 loss per share (vs JP¥88.13 profit in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: JP¥8.39 loss per share (down from JP¥88.13 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥123.6b (down 27% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥814.0m (down 110% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 4% per year. Price Target Changed • Jan 17
Price target decreased to JP¥2,187 Down from JP¥2,417, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of JP¥1,936. Stock is down 7.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥13.50 for next year compared to JP¥249 last year. Board Change • Jan 11
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Takefumi Fukumizu was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 30
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from JP¥42.53 to JP¥13.50 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥522.5b. Net income forecast to shrink 23% next year vs 0.6% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥2,270 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥1,938 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Dec 21
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 5.1%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,418, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 3.4% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.5% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 33% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 26
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 51% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥547.3b to JP¥539.9b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥95.59 per share to JP¥46.39 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 14% next year vs 1.6% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥2,417 to JP¥2,320. Share price rose 3.0% to JP¥2,039 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥62.67 loss per share (vs JP¥48.60 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥62.67 loss per share (down from JP¥48.60 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥128.6b (down 20% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥6.08b (down 227% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥62.67 loss per share (vs JP¥48.60 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥62.67 loss per share (down from JP¥48.60 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥128.6b (down 20% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥6.08b (down 227% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥50.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 02 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.9%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.9%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 26
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥495.2b to JP¥513.2b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥202 to JP¥158 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 29% next year vs 3.3% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥2,650 to JP¥2,590. Share price was steady at JP¥2,073 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥59.25 (vs JP¥47.31 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥59.25 (up from JP¥47.31 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥116.2b (down 21% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥5.74b (up 21% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.9% (up from 3.3% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 21% compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year whereas the company’s share price has remained flat. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥249 (up from JP¥227 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥655.3b (up 6.7% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥24.5b (up 6.8% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 3.7% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 7.8%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 29% compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year.