Reported Earnings • Aug 10
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: US$0.27 loss per share (up from US$0.35 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$58.3m (up 13% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: US$12.7m (loss narrowed 24% from 2Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 51% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 24% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jun 24
Price target increased to US$10.00 Up from US$9.00, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$10.11. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$0.26 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$1.49 last year. Buying Opportunity • Jun 10
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 16%. The fair value is estimated to be US$9.26, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 37%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in a year. Earnings is forecast to grow by 93% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • May 20
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from US$238.0m to US$234.2m. 2022 losses expected to reduce from -US$0.32 to -US$0.27 per share. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 52% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$9.43. Share price rose 11% to US$6.25 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: US$0.39 loss per share (down from US$0.34 loss in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$43.2m (down 23% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: US$18.3m (loss widened 16% from 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 16%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 65%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 41% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • May 06
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2022 The 7 analysts covering Radius Health previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of US$2.04m in 2022. Earnings growth of 61% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 27
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 expected loss increased from -US$0.03 to -US$0.06 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$247.5m. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 47% next year. Consensus price target of US$10.14 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 12% to US$6.80 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 23
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 expected loss increased from -US$0.03 to -US$0.05 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$247.6m. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 45% next year. Consensus price target of US$10.14 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 6.7% to US$7.40 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 12
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$245.8m to US$248.9m. Forecast EPS reduced from -US$0.01 to -US$0.11 per share. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 38% next year. Consensus price target of US$10.00 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$8.45 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: US$1.49 loss per share (up from US$2.35 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: US$230.0m (down 3.6% from FY 2020). Net loss: US$70.2m (loss narrowed 36% from FY 2020). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 6.0%, compared to a 185% growth forecast for the pharmaceuticals industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 26
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2022 The 6 analysts covering Radius Health previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of US$276.7k in 2022. Earnings growth of 60% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Breakeven Date Change • Jan 18
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2023 The 7 analysts covering Radius Health previously expected the company to break even in 2022. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 73% per year to 2022. The company is expected to make a profit of US$25.7m in 2023. Average annual earnings growth of 58% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Price Target Changed • Dec 09
Price target decreased to US$20.50 Down from US$23.86, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 156% above last closing price of US$8.01. Stock is down 43% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$1.33 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$2.35 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Dec 07
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2023 The 8 analysts covering Radius Health previously expected the company to break even in 2022. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 83% per year to 2022. The company is expected to make a profit of US$32.6m in 2023. Average annual earnings growth of 76% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.47 loss per share (vs US$0.14 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$56.8m (down 27% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: US$22.0m (loss widened 250% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Oct 22
Price target increased to US$23.86 Up from US$22.14, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of US$19.40. Stock is up 43% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$0.93 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$2.35 last year. Executive Departure • Aug 27
CFO, VP, Treasurer, Principal Finance Officer & Principal Accounting Officer James Chopas has left the company On the 26th of August, James Chopas' tenure as CFO, VP, Treasurer, Principal Finance Officer & Principal Accounting Officer ended after less than a year in the role. As of June 2021, James still personally held 4.37k shares (US$80k worth at the time). A total of 7 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 1.25 years, which is considered inexperienced in the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Aug 11
Price target decreased to US$22.29 Down from US$24.75, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 62% above last closing price of US$13.75. Stock is up 11% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.35 loss per share (vs US$0.94 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$51.8m (up 3.4% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: US$16.8m (loss narrowed 62% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 41% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 expected loss increased from -US$0.69 to -US$0.81 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$262.9m. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 8.7% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$24.75. Share price was steady at US$20.30 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 15
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from US$267.2m to US$264.1m. 2021 losses expected to reduce from -US$0.97 to -US$0.74 per share. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 11% next year. Consensus price target of US$24.63 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$20.95 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.34 loss per share (vs US$0.81 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a solid first quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$56.3m (up 17% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: US$15.7m (loss narrowed 58% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 25
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from US$261.7m to US$266.6m. Forecast EPS reduced from -US$0.85 to -US$0.95 per share. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 4.2% next year. Consensus price target up from US$23.50 to US$24.50. Share price was steady at US$23.02 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 13
Analysts update estimates The company's losses in 2021 are expected to worsen with analysts lowering their consensus EPS forecasts from -US$0.74 to -US$0.85. Revenue estimate was approximately flat at US$261.7m. The Biotechs industry in the US is expected to see an average net income growth of 4.2% next year. The consensus price target of US$23.50 was unchanged from the last update. Share price is up 6.7% to US$22.90 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2020 earnings released: US$2.35 loss per share (vs US$2.89 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$238.6m (up 38% from FY 2019). Net loss: US$109.2m (loss narrowed 18% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 27
Revenue beats expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.4%, compared to a 1,120% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 06
New 90-day high: US$22.94 The company is up 69% from its price of US$13.59 on 06 November 2020. The American market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 24% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$65.30 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 08
Price target raised to US$22.00 Up from US$20.25, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. The new target price is close to the current share price of US$21.99. As of last close, the stock is up 7.3% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: US$21.60 The company is up 60% from its price of US$13.50 on 08 October 2020. The American market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$63.35 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 17
New 90-day high: US$18.54 The company is up 48% from its price of US$12.55 on 17 September 2020. The American market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 17% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$111 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 11
New 90-day high: US$14.86 The company is up 22% from its price of US$12.14 on 12 August 2020. The American market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$90.19 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 07
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 34%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 16%, compared to a 310% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in the US. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: US$0.14 loss per share The company reported a solid third quarter result with reduced losses and improved revenues and control over expenses. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$77.8m (up 66% from 3Q 2019). Net loss: US$6.29m (loss narrowed 79% from 3Q 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 27
New 90-day high: US$13.88 The company is up 4.0% from its price of US$13.30 on 28 July 2020. The American market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is down 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$92.96 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 29
New 90-day low: US$10.80 The company is down 23% from its price of US$13.99 on 01 July 2020. The American market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$86.43 per share.