Orlen S.A.

Informe acción WSE:PKN

Capitalización de mercado: zł167.3b

Orlen Crecimiento futuro

Future controles de criterios 1/6

Se prevé que los ingresos de Orlen disminuyan en un 1.4% al año, mientras que se espera que sus beneficios anuales crezcan en un 10.1% al año. Se prevé que el BPA crezca en un 15% anual. Se prevé que la rentabilidad financiera sea de 8.5% en 3 años.

Información clave

10.1%

Tasa de crecimiento de los beneficios

14.97%

Tasa de crecimiento del BPA

Crecimiento de los beneficios de Oil and Gas6.2%
Tasa de crecimiento de los ingresos-1.4%
Rentabilidad financiera futura8.46%
Cobertura de analistas

Good

Última actualización10 Jun 2026

Actualizaciones recientes sobre el crecimiento futuro

Recent updates

Actualización de narrativa • Jun 07

PKN: Future Returns Will Reflect Balanced UBS Upgrade And Energa Recapitalisation Risk

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 127.33 to PLN 131.11, citing updated assumptions on long term revenue trends, margins and future P/E, along with recent Street research that has become more positive on the stock. What's in the News No recent news stories, periodical coverage or key developments were provided for Orlen in the supplied sources.
Artículo de análisis • Jun 05

We Think Orlen's (WSE:PKN) Healthy Earnings Might Be Conservative

Investors signalled that they were pleased with Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) most recent earnings report. Looking deeper at...
Actualización de narrativa • May 10

PKN: Future Returns Will Depend On Risky Energa Recapitalisation Plan

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 127.33 from PLN 119.22, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, supported by recent research that has taken a more positive stance on the stock. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 127.33 as support for a more constructive stance on the stock, arguing that current pricing does not fully reflect updated assumptions on revenue and margins.
Actualización de narrativa • Apr 26

PKN: Future Returns Will Hinge On Energa Integration And Margin Resilience

Analysts have adjusted their PLN price targets on Orlen only slightly, with a modest recalibration in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that reflects a mixed set of recent views, including a more positive stance from UBS and a more cautious one from Oddo BHF. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Orlen points to a split in opinion, with some analysts turning more optimistic and others taking a more cautious stance.
Actualización de narrativa • Apr 06

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Resilience Proves Overstated

Analysts have raised their Orlen price target from PLN 114.33 to about PLN 119.22, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, slightly higher profit margins and a marginally richer future P/E multiple, with recent research including both an upgrade and a downgrade informing the new view. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link their upgrade to a view that current valuation leaves some room for the shares to move closer to their refreshed fair value assumptions, anchored around the PLN 119.22 target.
Nueva narrativa • Mar 26

Regulated Energy Projects And LNG Expansion Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook

Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation, retail and gas trading. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Actualización de narrativa • Mar 22

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Assumptions Prove Fragile

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 95.58 to PLN 114.33, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as well as a mix of recent bullish and bearish Street calls. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link the higher fair value estimate of PLN 114.33 to expectations that Orlen can sustain healthier profit margins than previously assumed.
Nueva narrativa • Mar 11

Large CapEx And Refining Margin Normalization Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook

Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation and retail across several European markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Actualización de narrativa • Mar 06

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Execution Risks Intensify

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 95.58 from PLN 93.28, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the higher fair value estimate of PLN 95.58 as support for their view that current pricing may not fully reflect the updated revenue and margin assumptions built into their models.
Actualización de narrativa • Feb 19

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Margin Risks Intensify

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Orlen up from PLN 91.47 to PLN 93.28, citing slightly firmer profit margin assumptions and a modestly higher future P/E, even as at least one recent report has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 93.28 as support for the idea that current pricing may not fully reflect Orlen's earnings power under the updated profit margin assumptions.
Artículo de análisis • Feb 07

Why We're Not Concerned About Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20x Orlen S.A. ( WSE:PKN ) may be sending very bearish signals at the...
Actualización de narrativa • Feb 05

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Earnings Multiple Compresses

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from €87.31 to €91.47 per share, citing updated assumptions around a smaller revenue decline, a slightly higher profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple, even as at least one firm has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the updated view on a smaller revenue decline as a support for the higher fair value estimate of €91.47 per share, seeing this as a sign that the earnings base used in their models may be more resilient than previously assumed.
Actualización de narrativa • Jan 22

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Lag As P/E Stays Elevated

Analysts have kept their target price for Orlen broadly in line with prior levels, citing relatively unchanged fair value at 87.31, a stable 9.24% discount rate, and only small tweaks to assumptions around revenue trends, profit margin and future P/E of 12.05x. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share is unchanged at PLN 87.31.
Actualización de narrativa • Jan 08

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Disappoint As Earnings Multiple Stays Elevated

Analysts have kept their price target for Orlen unchanged at €87.31, reflecting steady assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, with no new Street research prompting a revision. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share remains unchanged at €87.31, with no adjustment to the underlying model inputs.
Artículo de análisis • Jan 04

An Intrinsic Calculation For Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued

Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł136 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen's zł101 share price...
Actualización de narrativa • Dec 18

PKN: Future Returns Will Remain Balanced As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Orlen higher to reflect a fair value of $87.31 per share, as they reiterate stable discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P E assumptions. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time to address key corporate matters requiring shareholder approval (Key Developments).
Artículo de análisis • Dec 17

Returns At Orlen (WSE:PKN) Are On The Way Up

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Actualización de narrativa • Dec 04

PKN: Earnings Multiple Will Rise As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken

Analysts have nudged their price target on Orlen higher to approximately $87.31 from about $85.86, citing a modestly richer future earnings multiple that more than offsets slightly weaker revenue growth and profit margin expectations. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time.
Artículo de análisis • Nov 29

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

Despite posting healthy earnings, Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) stock has been quite weak. Our analysis suggests that there...
Actualización de narrativa • Nov 20

PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve While Revenue Decline Persists Through 2025 Shareholder Meeting

Narrative Update on Orlen: Analyst Price Target Change Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 85.63 to PLN 85.86, citing improved profit margin expectations and a modest adjustment to the discount rate. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).
Actualización de narrativa • Nov 05

PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve Despite Weakening Revenue Outlook By Shareholder Meeting

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 83.86 to PLN 85.63, citing improved profit margin forecasts and a slightly higher future price-to-earnings expectation. This adjustment comes despite a modest downward revision in revenue growth outlook.
Artículo de análisis • Oct 28

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...
Actualización de narrativa • Oct 22

Analysts Maintain Orlen Price Target as Valuation Metrics Remain Stable Ahead of Shareholder Meeting

Analysts have maintained Orlen's price target at PLN 83.86, citing consistent expectations for future profitability and revenue growth in spite of industry headwinds. What's in the News Orlen S.A. will hold a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting on October 28, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).
Actualización de narrativa • Oct 08

Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance

Analysts have raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 80.08 to PLN 83.86. This update cites an improved fair value assessment and a modest increase in projected profit margins, even though revenue growth expectations are slightly lower.
Artículo de análisis • Oct 01

Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 42% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł123 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen is estimated to be 30...
Actualización de narrativa • Sep 23

Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance

Despite a further deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, Orlen’s net profit margin has improved, supporting a modest increase in analyst fair value to PLN80.08. What's in the News Orlen will not acquire all or part of GA Polyolefins shares, but remains open to further discussions on asset utilization.
Artículo de análisis • Sep 13

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'd...
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Nueva narrativa • Jan 19

Operations Diversification And Retail Expansion Will Build Future Resilience

Diversified operations and strategic investments aim to stabilize Orlen's revenue and boost capital efficiency and net margins.

Previsiones de crecimiento de beneficios e ingresos

WSE:PKN - Estimaciones futuras de los analistas y datos financieros pasados (PLN Millions)
FechaIngresosBeneficiosFlujo de caja libreFlujo de caja operativoNúm. de analistas medio
12/31/2028272,63715,3074,81536,9278
12/31/2027275,56616,4823,32538,2309
12/31/2026281,00617,602-5,08529,6158
3/31/2026269,9466,4519,95040,013N/A
12/31/2025267,8272,53117,28947,220N/A
9/30/2025270,4247,66715,15144,811N/A
6/30/2025277,3535,75416,10445,165N/A
3/31/2025286,2044,20711,23740,639N/A
12/31/2024294,8862,8265,69736,634N/A
9/30/2024317,3803,99226531,335N/A
6/30/2024328,9018,331-4,79928,808N/A
3/31/2024338,42014,376-4,59729,984N/A
12/31/2023371,91620,9225,72741,914N/A
9/30/2023380,56338,56616,95152,373N/A
6/30/2023374,02148,68424,32154,848N/A
3/31/2023352,79646,23128,99055,640N/A
12/31/2022282,41539,67712,40232,638N/A
9/30/2022217,08025,2021,85917,083N/A
6/30/2022180,60713,432-6712,849N/A
3/31/2022152,22612,047-1,25910,035N/A
12/31/2021131,34111,1222,07013,295N/A
9/30/2021113,6026,9794,51114,437N/A
6/30/2021101,0784,7212,45912,350N/A
3/31/202188,6656,84484110,575N/A
12/31/202086,1802,755-3267,247N/A
9/30/202090,5053,3404137,274N/A
6/30/202095,8163,9552,5638,506N/A
3/31/2020108,0341,2073,8098,658N/A
12/31/2019111,2034,300N/A9,319N/A
9/30/2019113,1234,424N/A7,155N/A
6/30/2019114,2385,221N/A7,276N/A
3/31/2019111,7115,363N/A5,661N/A
12/31/2018109,7065,556N/A4,980N/A
9/30/2018105,0206,440N/A6,822N/A
6/30/201899,4065,980N/A6,273N/A
3/31/201895,7305,777N/A7,887N/A
12/31/201795,3646,655N/A8,050N/A
9/30/201793,5326,853N/A9,712N/A
6/30/201789,8856,777N/A8,806N/A
3/31/201786,2156,844N/A7,077N/A
12/31/201679,5535,261N/A9,331N/A
9/30/201676,7383,391N/A8,351N/A
6/30/201679,1232,659N/A6,386N/A
3/31/201684,5442,418N/A7,301N/A
12/31/201588,3362,837N/A5,354N/A
9/30/201593,1511,702N/A4,199N/A
6/30/201598,8431,445N/A6,231N/A

Previsiones de crecimiento futuro de los analistas

Ingresos vs. Tasa de ahorro: El pronóstico de crecimiento de los beneficios (10.1% al año) de PKN es superior a la tasa de ahorro (5.3%).

Beneficios vs. Mercado: Se prevé que los beneficios (10.1% al año) de PKN crezcan menos que el mercado Polish (11.6% al año).

Beneficios de alto crecimiento: Se prevé que los beneficios de PKN crezcan, pero no significativamente.

Ingresos vs. Mercado: Se prevé que los ingresos de PKN disminuyan en los próximos 3 años (-1.4% al año).

Ingresos de alto crecimiento: Se prevé que los ingresos de PKN disminuyan en los próximos 3 años (-1.4% al año).

Previsiones de crecimiento de los beneficios por acción

Rentabilidad financiera futura

ROE futura: Se prevé que la rentabilidad financiera de PKN sea baja dentro de 3 años (8.5%).

Descubre empresas en crecimiento

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Análisis de la empresa y estado de los datos financieros

DatosÚltima actualización (huso horario UTC)
Análisis de la empresa2026/06/11 17:37
Precio de las acciones al final del día2026/06/11 00:00
Beneficios2026/03/31
Ingresos anuales2025/12/31

Fuentes de datos

Los datos utilizados en nuestro análisis de empresas proceden de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Los siguientes datos se utilizan en nuestro modelo de análisis para generar este informe. Los datos están normalizados, lo que puede introducir un retraso desde que la fuente está disponible.

PaqueteDatosMarco temporalEjemplo Fuente EE.UU. *
Finanzas de la empresa10 años
  • Cuenta de resultados
  • Estado de tesorería
  • Balance
Estimaciones del consenso de analistas+3 años
  • Previsiones financieras
  • Objetivos de precios de los analistas
Precios de mercado30 años
  • Precios de las acciones
  • Dividendos, escisiones y acciones
Propiedad10 años
  • Accionistas principales
  • Información privilegiada
Gestión10 años
  • Equipo directivo
  • Consejo de Administración
Principales avances10 años
  • Anuncios de empresas

* Ejemplo para valores de EE.UU., para no EE.UU. se utilizan formularios y fuentes normativas equivalentes.

A menos que se especifique lo contrario, todos los datos financieros se basan en un periodo anual, pero se actualizan trimestralmente. Esto se conoce como datos de los últimos doce meses (TTM) o de los últimos doce meses (LTM). Más información.

Modelo de análisis y copo de nieve

Los detalles del modelo de análisis utilizado para generar este informe están disponibles en nuestra página de Github, también tenemos guías sobre cómo utilizar nuestros informes y tutoriales en Youtube.

Conozca al equipo de talla mundial que diseñó y construyó el modelo de análisis Simply Wall St.

Métricas industriales y sectoriales

Simply Wall St calcula cada 6 horas nuestras métricas sectoriales y de sección. Los detalles de nuestro proceso están disponibles en Github.

Fuentes analistas

Orlen S.A. está cubierta por 20 analistas. 9 de esos analistas presentaron las estimaciones de ingresos o ganancias utilizadas como datos para nuestro informe. Las estimaciones de los analistas se actualizan a lo largo del día.

AnalistaInstitución
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku