Seeking Alpha • Apr 10

DoubleDown Interactive: May Look Cheap On Paper, But It Could Be A Trap

Summary DoubleDown Interactive faces a 38% share price decline despite 5% revenue growth to $360 million in FY2025. U.S. revenue softness is offset by strong UK and Germany growth, primarily driven by the SuprNation and WHOW Games acquisitions. DDI maintains a robust balance sheet with $490 million in liquidity and no long-term debt, supporting future expansion. Despite a low forward P/E (<4x), market skepticism persists due to mature core business and uncertain growth from new drivers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analyseartikel • Jun 13

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:DDI) Low P/E

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.4x DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. ( NASDAQ:DDI ) may be sending very...

Analyseartikel • Apr 16

DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Amongst other things...

Seeking Alpha • Mar 31

DoubleDown Interactive: A Cash Cow Trading For A Bargain

Summary DoubleDown Interactive is a cash cow trading at an inordinately cheap valuation. Key risks include declining user KPIs, a heavily regulated industry of operation, and potentially poor capital allocation by the company's management. DoubleDown Interactive's rock-bottom valuation could sufficiently mitigate these risks and provide an opportunity for significant alpha generation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Mar 17

DoubleDown Interactive: Strong Buy On Valuation, Growth Potential

Summary DoubleDown Interactive offers strong valuation metrics, with a high cash flow focus, making it a top value play in my portfolio. The successful integration of SuperNation has provided a growth catalyst, with potential for future acquisitions and expansion into new gaming markets. DDI's predictable revenues and cash flows are supported by a sticky gamer base and a disciplined approach to user acquisition and R&D spending. Despite risks in growth, DDI's strong balance sheet and valuation metrics mitigate major stock price falls, reinforcing my Strong Buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jan 27

DoubleDown Interactive: The House May Not Always Win

Summary DoubleDown Interactive recently entered iGaming with the acquisition of SuprNation, expanding beyond its casual casino games. iGaming offers potential revenue growth through real-money transactions, but DDI must maintain consistent player engagement. Social casino gaming is more stable and cost-effective, avoiding regulatory expenses associated with gambling. DDI’s strong financials include increasing revenue, negligible debt, and positive cash flow, but free cash flow growth is inconsistent. While DDI stock is undervalued, investors should hold and wait for visible growth in its new business in iGaming before entering a significant position. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analyseartikel • Dec 04

These 4 Measures Indicate That DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Using Debt Safely

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Seeking Alpha • Nov 21

DoubleDown Interactive Q3: KPIs Are On A Decline, Not Enticing Right Now

Summary DoubleDown Interactive's Q3 results missed top and bottom-line estimates, with revenue growth primarily driven by the acquisition of SuprNation, not organic growth. Despite declining user metrics, ARPU and payer conversion rates improved significantly, highlighting the impact of the European iGaming acquisition. The company boasts a strong financial position with substantial liquidity and minimal debt but needs to enhance its mobile offerings and customer service. I remain cautious due to stagnant KPIs and the need for aggressive action to attract and retain paying customers; I’ll stay on the sidelines for now. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analyseartikel • Nov 07

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...

Analyseartikel • Sep 28

Is There Now An Opportunity In DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI)?

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. ( NASDAQ:DDI ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price...

Analyseartikel • Sep 01

Optimistic Investors Push DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI) Shares Up 27% But Growth Is Lacking

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. ( NASDAQ:DDI ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a...

Analyseartikel • Aug 17

Is DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Analyseartikel • Jun 04

Revenues Not Telling The Story For DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI) After Shares Rise 28%

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. ( NASDAQ:DDI ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky...

Analyseartikel • May 13

Are DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, DoubleDown Interactive fair value estimate is US$9.63...

Analyseartikel • Feb 21

There's Reason For Concern Over DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:DDI) Massive 46% Price Jump

Despite an already strong run, DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. ( NASDAQ:DDI ) shares have been powering on, with a...

Analyseartikel • Feb 17

Analysts Are Updating Their DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI) Estimates After Its Yearly Results

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 48% over the past week following DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. 's...

Analyseartikel • Feb 13

These 4 Measures Indicate That DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Using Debt Safely

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Analyseartikel • Jan 05

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:DDI) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 1.2x in the Entertainment industry in the United States, you...

Analyseartikel • Oct 14

DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? In a perfect world...

Analyseartikel • Aug 29

Getting In Cheap On DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Unlikely

There wouldn't be many who think DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.'s ( NASDAQ:DDI ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of...

Analyseartikel • Jan 12

Slowing Rates Of Return At DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Leave Little Room For Excitement

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...

Seeking Alpha • Sep 01

DoubleDown Interactive: A Cigar Butt Company

Summary DoubleDown Interactive is a small gaming company with growing margins, solid cash flow, and deeply negative net debt, but valued at a significant discount to book value. For a long time, the key risk factor for DDI investors has been litigation. Looks like this risk factor has been left behind. While the potential of bears is limited by a low float, acquisitions will allow the company to diversify revenue, which may lead to a revaluation of shares. Given that the nearest peer is trading at P/FCF 7.56, the upside potential we see is about 45%. Investment Thesis DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) is a small gaming company with growing margins, solid cash flow, and deeply negative net debt, but valued at a significant discount to book value. For a long time, a sword hung over the company in the form of a lawsuit that could deprive DDI of a significant part of its assets. It seems that this risk factor has been left behind. And although at the point the shares reacted with a 12% increase, DoubleDown remains a deep value case. The use of liquid assets accumulated on the balance sheet can reveal the value of the company. It is expected that cash will be used for M&A transactions, which will allow DDI to get a new growth driver, diversify revenue and improve profitability due to the synergistic effect. A high insider ownership share and a low float can limit the decline of the stock and lead to a squeeze in case of excessive demand. Given that the nearest peer is trading at P/FCF 7.56, the upside potential we see is about 45%. We rate shares as a Buy. Company Profile DoubleDown Interactive develops gambling games for mobile devices and in WEB format. At the moment, the company's portfolio includes four games, three of which are casinos and one is a zombie apocalypse RPG. Spinning Space is expected to be released this quarter, as well as releases of several games next year. The developer earns from in-game purchases of users mainly in the USA (87.5% of revenue). The share of WEB games in revenue is 27.1%, and mobile games - 72.9%. DoubleDown Casino's flagship game generates 96.6% of DDI's revenue. Created by the author A True Value Case In a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders from 1989, Warren Buffett wrote that a cigar butt found on the street that has only one puff left in it may not offer much of a smoke, but the "bargain purchase" will make that puff all profit. By a cigar butt, the Oracle from Omaha meant shares of companies with a market capitalization below the liquidation value of the business. Such a company is DoubleDown Interactive. With a current capitalization of $533.2 million, the company's book value is $843.1 million, of which net current assets account for $215.2 million or 25.5%. It is worth noting that the balance of Total Cash & ST Investments is $284.4 million, which corresponds to two-thirds of the market capitalization of DDI. DoubleDown also looks as cheap as peers. DoubleDown Playtika (PLTK) Churchill Downs (CHDN) EA (EA) Activision (ATVI) P/E [TTM] 18.80x 15.13x 16.41x 41.07x 32.97x P/B 0.56x -24.73x 12.61x 4.73x 3.38x EV/Sales 0.69x 2.23x 6.16x 4.98x 7.13x P/Cash flow 5.24x 7.76x 15.02x 18.35x 30.47x The valuation of DDI looks irrational since the company is trading at a significant discount to the liquidation value, which corresponds to firms burning shareholder value. DoubleDown, in turn, constantly increases marginality and generates a solid cash flow. According to the results of the last reporting period, cash from operations and free cash flow exceeded $100 million. DDI Cash from Operations (Annual) data by YCharts In the pursuit of value, it is important not to fall into a trap. DoubleDown does not look like a value trap, because a) the company increases its marginality; b) DDI generates solid cash flow; c) the firm has a strong balance sheet and deeply negative net debt. In the second quarter, DDI showed a loss of $34.1 million due to the creation of a provision for legal costs of $71.5 million. The company's adjusted net profit is $37.4 million. Liquid assets can become a potential driver for the disclosure of value. The probability of buybacks is unlikely since the company has a low float. However, management regularly talks about plans for strategic acquisitions. "We are targeting - augmenting our business through strategic M&A opportunities, while we, of course, cannot make any assurances about the timing of a potential transaction" - In Keuk Kim, CEO.

Seeking Alpha • Aug 19

DoubleDown Interactive: Q2 Earnings And Legal Review Suggest Continued Margin Of Safety

DoubleDown Interactive reported earnings on August 12th. While headlines looked bad they mostly reflected a pre-booked expense related to the outstanding Benson case. Operating results remained strong with $21m in FCF in Q2. The overhang of the Benson case may be coming to an end with another negotiation session scheduled for August 26th. I maintain an $18.00 price target over the next 1-2 years. DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) announced Q2 results on August 12th and from a glance they looked bad. Earnings per share was greater than the current stock price at a -$13.75 and revenue was down year-over-year by 13.5%. While the stock price took an immediate downturn after earnings since it's come back up and is trading above levels when I first shared my bullish thesis about a month ago. I borrow a lot of context from this piece so it may be helpful to review that first. Despite the look of earnings I still believe DDI is undervalued and maintain a price target of $18.00 within 1-2 years, an implied return of 81%. The top level picture of earnings distorts the overall reality as the cost booked in Q2 is related to a large reserve set aside in relation to the Benson case which is in the midst of negotiations this month. After sharing some of my thoughts regarding earnings I'll share a bit about my research into the case and where things stand and why I think settlement might be coming soon. And why there might be a share buyback in the works as well. DoubleDown Interactive Q2 Earnings Review The key detail from their recent earnings is this: Operating costs increased from $71.5 million in the second quarter of 2021 to $128.6 million in the second quarter of 2022 due to a $71.5 million non-cash accrual which was included in General and Administrative expenses associated with previously announced legal proceedings related to the Benson class action complaint." Essentially DDI is pre-booking some of the legal amount that they are expecting to pay out to Benson. With $284.434m in cash and short term investments the $71.5 million they are booking is already held in cash on their balance sheet. In total they have $77.687m set aside on their balance sheet now for litigation accrual and other current liabilities. Even after that the company still maintains $284.434m in liquid assets as of the quarter end. Q2'22 Filing Total equity value comes in at $843.056m as compared to their $491.04m market cap today; this leaves them trading at a P/B of 0.58x. The operating component of the company generated $21.13m in free cash flow in Q2; for the first half the company has generated $49.512m. That leaves them at a P/FCF of 9.91x based on the first half alone . A conservative assumption is that this company should trade at least book value given it is profitable - and this ascribes no value to how profitable it is. Return on a reversion to book value would be 72%. As noted in my previous article, the company is incredibly asset light. That cash flow number for the quarter was below their two year quarterly average of $28.03m which is due likely to their declining revenue base. The declining revenue is a problem and is consistent with results seen across the social casino category this quarter. Part of this is due to last year's comps being difficult to maintain due to a tailwind from COVID and people being at home. The other piece is that the sector overall is considered to be quite mature at this point. This is partly why management has been investing in the hyper casual segment themselves and are looking to make a strategic acquisition likely outside of social casino. While there is a risk of ongoing revenue decline causing profitability issues, the structure of the company allows them to decrease costs along with revenues. That should allow some margin of safety while the company explores their current pipeline of games and explores M&A opportunities. Management expects their new game Spinning Space to launch this quarter with multiple games slated for 2023. With each new game launch there is an optionality of success with very little ongoing costs associated with them as they maintain all of their games on the same code base. While there are some initial marketing costs related to launches, from there it becomes a data science exercise where the company is evaluating the customer behavior and profitability in-game. They use that information to both adjust in-game mechanics and rewards to entice players as well as to adjust marketing spend on games. The last game they launched, Undead World: Hero Survival, was in September 2021. Management has indicated a six month payback period for new launches and with us nearing a year into launch of the game they indicated "continued minimal investment" in the name last quarter. Estimated revenue last month from the game was $100k according to Sensor Tower data. Sensor Tower From an efficiency perspective, average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU) was $0.95 in Q2 versus $0.97 for the year last year. EBITDA margin was 32.4% with payer conversion at 5.2%. DoubleDown Interactive M&A Update CEO IK Kim had this to say in regards to M&A targeting in their conference call: "We definitely look -- see our candidates around hyper-casual gaming industry including iGaming. Actually we are in mobile gaming space. So, we do into more wider gaming industry as well." This tracks with the idea that they are not going to invest further in social casino. Instead they seem to be leveraging their social casino assets as cash flow generators to fund new growth. Not a bad strategy given that last year that cash flow was $96m or 19.5% of their current market cap. Management seems more optimistic and believe they are in "an optimal buying position given the overall pull back in valuations and associated tightening of capital market." This compares with commentary from peer Playtika's (PLTK) Chief Strategy Officer Eric Rapps regarding valuations in the market: So what we can say is things have gotten more attractive. I would say that the disconnect that existed between the public and private markets, you know that disconnect started to bridge, but I wouldn't yet say that everyone acknowledges the current economic backdrop, and I think where expectations do remain high, it's largely the product of people thinking that this current trend may not be as long as some others think. So we're starting to see it a little bit, but in other places it's still elevated. It's possible as a result of more attractive valuations that an acquisition may occur. Though CFO Joe Sigrist seemed to suggest that this is early stages given his commentary that "Now obviously, there are some targets - well at least potential targets, I'll be honest and say no one that we had really in our sights." The overhang of the legal proceedings is likely to create a bit more hesitation in making a move though if valuations are lowering some bolt-on acquisitions may become more attractive that could be done at a lower cost and still preserve capital for potential litigation payout. But let's turn to the legal proceedings more directly to analyze the risks. An Update on Benson, et al. v. DoubleDown Interactive, LLC and International Game Technology DDI has an outstanding legal case, the Benson case, related to allegations that the company is an illegal gambling operation. Given the precedent of settlements in these cases, which I outlined in my previous coverage, it's likely that this will amount to an actual cost to the company. While some may believe this represents an existential issue for the company I would note that peer SciPlay (SCPL) faced a similar lawsuit, settled already, and is generating a profit for shareholders today. This case relates back to the $71.5m they set aside this quarter for legal expenses. Prior to this the company estimated a range of between $3.5 million and $201.5 million as total expenses for the case. Negotiation has been ongoing between parties this month with a mediation session occurring on July 28th and another one scheduled for August 26th. It seems that in the midst of negotiations it became a bit more clear to the company what the actual cost may be as they updated their range to $75 million to $201.5 million in the last quarterly call. From accounts given by both DDI and co-defendant IGT negotiations have been engaged with in good faith and IGT noted they "made significant progress towards the resolution of this litigation in recent weeks." Ironically these statements are given in response to plaintiff's attempt to put a temporary restraining order on DDI, which was denied on August 17th. DocketAlarm.com Basically what happened is that the Benson plaintiffs noticed a July 21st filing from DDI announcing details regarding their extraordinary general meeting for August 26th. Included in that is a vote to "to approve the reduction of the Company's capital reserve in the amount of KRW 70,000,000,000 pursuant to Article 461-2 of the Korean Commercial Code." This is around $50m and the fear from the plaintiffs is that the company is intending to pay this out in the form of a dividend or share buybacks, enriching shareholders at the expense of the plaintiffs. Here's the plaintiff's perspective: During the extraordinary meeting, DoubleDown intends to hold a vote on removing more than $50 million of cash from its "capital reserve," apparently to pay overseas investors a first-ever (and "unanticipated") dividend. In other words, while DoubleDown's lawyers have represented that DoubleDown "has mediated in good faith and intends to continue to do so," Dkt. #480, and while they ask the Court to refrain from making any rulings on pending motions, id., DoubleDown's management appears to be stalling the litigation so that it can abscond with money that is owed to the Class.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 22

87% Margin Of Safety In Unknown DoubleDown Interactive With Operating Business On Sale For Less Than 2x FCF

DoubleDown started trading last August and the stock price has decreased 46.2% since. With 95.6% shares held by related parties and near lows, downward pressure is likely played out. Operating business is trading for a P/FCF of ~2 given a three year FCF average of $104m. Average FCF margin the past eight quarters is 29.80%. $268.205m in cash and short term investments - 56% of current market cap. Company is seeking to use cash to make an acquisition. This will likely serve as a catalyst in the coming six months and be immediately accretive. Based on six different conservative valuation approaches I estimate an implied upside of 125%. I have a minimum value target of $18.00 representing an 87% margin of safety. Thesis DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) is an online gaming company where you can buy the operating business for a P/FCF of 1.99 based on their three year average free cash flow of $104m. More than half of the current market capitalization is held in cash and short term investments which are intended for M&A purposes within the year's end. Despite profitability the company trades at a P/B of just 0.56. Based on six different conservative valuation approaches the company has an average 125% implied upside. I believe that given recent macro changes in how app stores charge companies like DoubleDown that they are likely to see increased profitability as their largest expense decreases. Any acquisition done is likely to be immediately accretive, growing profitability even further and expanding the base of revenue, base of users, and perhaps even opening the door to new verticals in the gaming space. With 95.6% of outstanding shares held by insiders and related parties I expect that as DDI completes an acquisition and sees earnings growth from macro trends that the stock price will move upward with or without a multiple re-rating. I believe that the IPO price of $18.00 represents a conservative minimum value in the name representing an 87.5% margin of safety. With the right M&A acquisition, continued diligence on the part of management, and macro changes, it's possible earnings could grow significantly in the coming years. So I expect to see DDI around $18.00 anytime within the next 1-2 years. All the following estimates assume a current DDI stock price of $9.60. DoubleDown Interactive Company History The company was originally established as The8Games in Seoul, Korea in 2008 with a focus on development and publishing of casual games and mobile applications. DoubleU Games ((DUG)) acquired the company in 2017. That same year DUG purchased DoubleDown Interactive US. The idea was that the two companies combined under DUG would create powerful synergies in the social casino gaming content space. They changed their name officially to DoubleDown Interactive in December 2019. In the following year, DoubleDown acquired Double8 Games from DUG as well. The company initiated an IPO in mid-2020 which was not completed. A second attempt in August 2021 was done at ~8 EV/EBITDA valuation. DDI shares started trading on August 31st at $18.00 per share. B. Riley Securities was the sole underwriter and within a month of IPO affiliated B. Riley Financial launched a tender offer to purchase 2m shares of DDI at $18.00. In their press release announcing the offer Chairman B. Riley himself had this to say: We have been a significant purchaser of DDI in the open market since its initial public offering. As a well-run, highly profitable company with a predictable business model, DDI is a company in which we have strong conviction. Through this tender offer, we are providing transparency to shareholders of our intent to acquire additional shares at what we believe represents a highly compelling value at the proposed tender price of $18.00. We look forward to commencing the tender offer process and continuing our partnership with DDI and its shareholders. As of their most recent filing in February 2022, B. Riley owns 8.3% of shares outstanding. A June report from B. Riley indicated a price target of $20 for DDI which is lower from their previous $30 target. DoubleU Games maintains a 67% majority interest in the company as of November 2021. Company Filings Current CEO in Keuk Kim has been involved with DDI for years. He previously was employed at DoubleU Games, with a history dating back to 2013 and actually led the execution and acquisition of Double Down Interactive. Their Chief Data Officer Ki Chul Kim worked alongside I.K. Kim at DUG on the acquisition. Joseph Sigrist, CFO since 2019, brings history from the DoubleDown side where he was an executive from 2015. Prior to that he worked with the previous parent company of DoubleDown, International Game Technology (IGT), from 2012 as Senior VP of Global Product Development and Operations. DDI maintains a partnership with IGT to this day. I believe management overall brings valuable historical understanding and context of not just the sector, but the development of the different pieces of the company. DoubleDown Business Overview The company generates revenue through four free-to-play mobile games with their flagship game DoubleDown Casino being their key asset generating 96.6% of 2021 revenue. Three of their games are in the social casino category while their most recent launch Undead World: Hero Survival is their first RPG fast casual styled game. Let's look at some baseline data on the games. Game Launch Date Installs as of 12-2021 of Reviews Average Rating out of 5 Estimated Revenue June 2022 DoubleDown Casino 04-2010 >10m 543,366 4.5 $10m DoubleDown Fort Knox 04-2018 3.9m 193,956 4.5 $100k DoubleDown Classic 07-2017 2.0m 131,648 4.7 $300k Undead World: Hero Survival 09-2021 670k 5,199 4.9 $70k *Data compiled from company filings and Sensor Tower data. While the games are free to play, they offer in-game purchase options. For instance, the three DoubleDown games are platforms where you can use fake currency to play a variety of casino styled games, many of them slots styled. If a player uses all of the fake currency they are allotted they can choose to either wait for more or purchase more through the in-game store. Given current mobile app dynamics, these games are predominantly distributed and marketed through Apple App Store, Facebook, Google Play Store, and Amazon Appstore. Each of these platforms charges around 30% on gross revenue received through the games and this represents the company's largest expense. Recent litigation by Epic Games suggests that these 30% flat fees are likely to be decreasing as other options for companies open up. We'll talk more about this later though. DDI maintains a shared code base for all of their games which enables seamless upgrade cycles and lower ongoing costs. Not included in the games above is Save My Zombies which has been in beta since April. Another expected launch is Spinning In Space intended to go into beta this summer. Going into this next year their stated goal is to launch a gaming app once every quarter - and currently they are developing what they call Project G and K both in the hyper casual space. This translates to about four games in ongoing development which provide upside optionality. All of this development has come out of ongoing R&D costs and likely require minimal capital expenditures to maintain since it's built on the shared code base. Management targets a six-month payback period for new launches. Revenue in 2021 was $363m which is up 36% since 2018. They generated $120m in FCF in 2021 and have quarter-to-quarter averaged a 29.8% FCF margin over the last two years. While the revenue comes predominantly from the one game, it's seemingly very sticky as 92% of revenue in 2021 was generated from people who had downloaded the game prior to that year with some going back as far as 2010. Company Filings The fact that there are people still spending money in this game ten years after they first played it in my eyes helps to mitigate the concentration of revenue. It also demonstrates the value proposition of these types of games when done right. While DoubleDown Casino generates huge amounts of cash flow management is looking for ways to put it to work in M&A. Valuation and Financials Averaging the past three years of FCF gives us an annual estimate of $104m. With a market capitalization of $475.776m we can back out the cash position of $268.205 and see that the operating business is trading for a P/FCF of just 1.99. This is a business with growing revenue, high margins, minimal cap-ex requirements, and a game which has been in the top 25 grossing mobile games annually on Apple App Store since 2015. Despite being profitable the company is trading at a 0.54 P/B value. The cash and short term investments position represents 30% of DDI's book value and they had $41.295m in debt as of their last quarterly announcement. Enterprise value is $248.871m and with a three year average EBITDA of $126.386m they are trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.97. Author's calculations using company filings. Of note is that the P/FCF metric is based on historical data despite earnings growth. There are multiple realistic ways that earnings could expand significantly in the coming years yet we need not assume that growth to see the undervaluation. Instead, investors at this price are given a margin of safety with multiple optionality events perhaps compounding the return. First quarter reporting revealed revenue decline year-over-year and EBITDA growth quarter-to-quarter. I'd say a conservative estimate of 2022 EBITDA and cash flow is either just below or around the three year average based upon the core games it has currently. If we annualized the $26.9m of EBITDA they did in the first quarter that would imply 2022 EBITDA of $107.6m. The story is not in the revenue decline, it's the telegraphed acquisition management is so keen to close on. An acquisition is likely to be immediately accretive to earnings, will expand the revenue base, and may potentially open the company up to new business verticals. Given their cash position reflects 56% of their market cap, a single large acquisition could likely serve as a catalyst to re-rate and bring attention to DoubleDown. Within the next year I suspect that acquisition is likely to happen. How Does DoubleDown Compare To Peers? DoubleDown has two very close peer companies which are also publicly traded: SciPlay (SCPL) and Playtika (PLTK). Both are bigger companies, have traded longer so are more well known to investors, and also create mobile app games in the social casino category. When we look at DDI amongst these peers it seems it is undervalued as well. Peer Comparison Market Cap P/B Annual Revenue 2021 FCF P/FCF ROE Revenue Per Employee ARPDAU Payer Conversion DDI 478m 0.55 363m 121 3.96 9.64% 1.60m 0.97 5.70% SCPL 1680m 16.3 606m 154 10.91 19.77% 0.97m 0.71 8.50% PLTK 5000m 2583m 504 9.91 0.00% 0.65m 0.68 2.90% *Data compiled from company filings. There are two metrics that businesses in the sector focus on: average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU) and payer conversion. ARPDAU is a metric that gives a window into how much revenue is being generated per average player each day. Payer conversion is a metric showing how many of the free players converted to paying players. A couple of things I note from the table above. The total peer group P/FCF average is 8.26. Reversion to the mean would imply an upside of 109%. DDI is significantly more efficient than its peers with regard to revenue per employee and ARPDAU. One of the peers, Playtika, currently has negative equity value which is why there's no P/B or ROE. And yet it trades at a greater FCF multiple than DDI. ROE for DoubleDown is depressed given the significant cash position and will be better understood once they deploy that cash. Here on Seeking Alpha there have been three articles covering SciPlay and two on Playtika. Most recent coverage of Playtika argues that those shares are undervalued at current cash flow multiples. SciPlay is considered a hold in most recent coverage and considered to be near fair value. Besides opinions here there's the fact that SciPlay received and rejected an offer to be acquired by their majority owner at a valuation of 10.1x EBITDA believing that it undervalued them. Playtika was recently in the rumor mill given a note that Joffre acquired a 20% stake at a 46% premium to current trading prices. In either case, if SciPlay and Playtika are undervalued then we can double down on DoubleDown's undervaluation. One Major Liability: Benson, et al. v. DoubleDown Interactive, LLC and International Game Technology The company has an outstanding credible lawsuit where plaintiffs are asserting that DoubleDown games operate as illegal gambling and under Washington state law losses are recoverable from the company. Here's why I say the lawsuit is credible: "Additional class actions have been commenced against other of our competitors on similar grounds, certain of which, including Churchill Downs, have finalized settlements which the court approved on February 11, 2021 in amounts of $6.5 million, $38.0 million, and $155.0 million." SciPlay settled a similar lawsuit for $24.5m just last year. DDI's insurance company has already indicated that they would not cover any losses. While I think it's likely to cost the company something, the wide range implied does not help make matters clear. Management's own estimation is a loss between $3.5 million and $201.5 million. This is definitely something to monitor and will have a material impact on the company. Although given how cheaply the company is trading and the cash on hand, it should merely be a one-time hit. It does not reflect any impairment to the business value of the company. Changes to their app model have already been made to better align with interpretation of the Washington state law so that this issue will not come up again in the future. Interested readers can find more information on this space here and here. Why Is DoubleDown Trading So Low? If we step back from the company for a second and review its stock price performance since IPO we can observe it has shed 46.2% in value. It's also trading near its lows. Seeking Alpha DoubleDown has seen downward pressure just like everything these past few months though I believe it is compounded by the relatively new nature of the company and tight ownership. There are only two analysts with price targets out on DDI, one of them being a major shareholder in the company already, B. Riley, with their most recent $20 price target. Northland Capital Markets has a $25 price target set since Sept. 2021. Otherwise, coverage is scant. No one has written an update on the company on Seeking Alpha since IPO. It's unwatched, unfollowed, and I think that represents opportunity. Company Seeking Alpha Follows Stocktwits Watchers of Analysts % of Institutional Ownership DDI 420 63 2 10.25% SCPL 2550 566 9 71.30% PLTK 3730 1411 12 14.85% The stock has been trading around its lows for about a month now and has not been kind to investors who bought at the IPO. If we consider share ownership overall we can see that around 95.60% of shares are held by insiders and related parties - this translates to a very small number of shares likely trading. 2021 20-F Average daily volume of DDI stock this past month is around 6000 shares a day. The downward pressure of the market combined with tight float has likely caused many to move out of the position with fewer and fewer new buyers given the relatively unknown nature of the company. Illiquidity I think will be a benefit moving forward as I believe we are near lows and as the story becomes more clear there will be people interested in buying and not much floating around.

Schneeflocken-Punktzahl
Bewertung	5/6
Künftiges Wachstum	0/6
Vergangene Leistung	2/6
Finanzielle Gesundheit	6/6
Dividenden	0/6

Historische Aktienkurse
Aktueller Aktienkurs	US$11.97
52-Wochen-Hoch	US$12.35
52-Wochen-Tief	US$8.09
Beta	1.01
1 Monat Veränderung	33.74%
3 Monate Veränderung	38.22%
1 Jahr Veränderung	18.51%
3 Jahre Veränderung	33.00%
5 Jahre Veränderung	n/a
Veränderung seit IPO	-32.56%

	DDI	US Entertainment	US Markt
7D	-2.3%	0.6%	1.1%
1Y	18.5%	-10.4%	28.7%

DDI volatility
DDI Average Weekly Movement	6.6%
Entertainment Industry Average Movement	9.0%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.4%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

DDI grundlegende Statistiken
Marktanteil	US$593.15m
Gewinn(TTM)	US$114.04m
Umsatz(TTM)	US$370.57m

DDI Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung (TTM)
Einnahmen	US$370.57m
Kosten der Einnahmen	US$101.85m
Bruttogewinn	US$268.72m
Sonstige Ausgaben	US$154.68m
Gewinn	US$114.04m

Gewinn per Aktie (EPS)	2.30
Bruttomarge	72.52%
Nettogewinnspanne	30.77%
Schulden/Eigenkapital-Verhältnis	3.4%

Daten	Zuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit)
Unternehmensanalyse	2026/05/25 21:35
Aktienkurs zum Tagesende	2026/05/22 00:00
Gewinne	2026/03/31
Jährliche Einnahmen	2025/12/31

Paket	Daten	Zeitrahmen	Beispiel US-Quelle ^*
Finanzdaten des Unternehmens	10 Jahre	Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung Kapitalflussrechnung Bilanz	SEC-Formular 10-K SEC-Formular 10-Q
Konsensschätzungen der Analysten	+3 Jahre	Finanzielle Vorausschau Kursziele der Analysten	Analysten Research Berichte Blue Matrix
Marktpreise	30 Jahre	Aktienkurse Dividenden, Splits und Aktionen	ICE-Marktdaten SEC-Formular S-1
Eigentümerschaft	10 Jahre	Top-Aktionäre Insiderhandel	SEC-Formular 4 SEC-Formular 13D
Verwaltung	10 Jahre	Das Führungsteam Direktorium	SEC-Formular 10-K SEC-Formular DEF 14A
Wichtige Entwicklungen	10 Jahre	Ankündigungen des Unternehmens	SEC-Formular 8-K

Analyst	Einrichtung
Michael Nichols	B. Riley Securities, Inc.
David Bain	B. Riley Securities, Inc.
Nicholas McKay	Freedom Capital Markets

DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) Aktienübersicht

Belohnungen

Risikoanalyse

Analyst Price Targets

Regulatory Hurdles Will Constrain iGaming Expansion Yet Spark Slight Optimism

Social Casino Expansion Will Boost Digital Footprint Amid Margin Risks

Smartphone And Digital Trends Will Unlock New Markets Despite Risks

Top Analyst Narratives

Regulatory Hurdles Will Constrain iGaming Expansion Yet Spark Slight Optimism

Social Casino Expansion Will Boost Digital Footprint Amid Margin Risks

Smartphone And Digital Trends Will Unlock New Markets Despite Risks

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. Wettbewerber

Gravity

Sohu.com

GDEV

CTW

Preisentwicklung & Leistung

Aktuelle Nachrichten und Updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10%, revenue downgraded

Price target decreased by 9.6% to US$16.45

DDI: Take Private Proposal And Acquisition Plans Will Shape Future Upside Potential

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 12, 2026

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 24%

DDI: Governance Amendments And New Auditor Will Support Future Upside Potential

Recent updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10%, revenue downgraded

Price target decreased by 9.6% to US$16.45

DDI: Take Private Proposal And Acquisition Plans Will Shape Future Upside Potential

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 12, 2026

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 24%

DDI: Governance Amendments And New Auditor Will Support Future Upside Potential

DDI: Governance Updates And Auditor Alignment Will Support Future Upside Potential

DoubleDown Interactive: May Look Cheap On Paper, But It Could Be A Trap

Less than half of directors are independent

Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

DDI: Governance And Auditor Transitions Will Support Future Upside Potential

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. Announces Board Appointments

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2026

DDI: Lockup Expiry And Follow On Offering Will Drive Future Upside

DDI: Follow-On Equity Offering And Lockup Structure Will Support Future Upside Potential

Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

DDI: Follow-On Equity Offering Will Support Future Upside Potential

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 11, 2026

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $18.643744 million.

Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Price target decreased by 8.1% to US$18.60

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 10, 2025

Second quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Price target decreased by 9.5% to US$18.33

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 12, 2025

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NasdaqGS:DDI) entered into a Share Purchase and Transfer Agreement to acquire Whow Games GmbH from Azerion Tech Holding BV for €65 million.

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:DDI) Low P/E

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22%

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $36.95653 million.

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 13, 2025

DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

DoubleDown Interactive: A Cash Cow Trading For A Bargain

DoubleDown Interactive: Strong Buy On Valuation, Growth Potential

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2025

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

DoubleDown Interactive: The House May Not Always Win

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 11, 2025

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

These 4 Measures Indicate That DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) Is Using Debt Safely

DoubleDown Interactive Q3: KPIs Are On A Decline, Not Enticing Right Now

Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18%

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI)

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 11, 2024

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22%

Is There Now An Opportunity In DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI)?

Social Casino Success Amid Industry Woes, But Economic And Execution Risks Lurk

Optimistic Investors Push DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:DDI) Shares Up 27% But Growth Is Lacking

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

Is DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ:DDI) A Risky Investment?

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 12, 2024