Assured Guaranty Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Assured Guaranty's earnings are forecast to decline at 0.7% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 6.3% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 3.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6% in 3 years.
Key information
-0.7%
Earnings growth rate
3.06%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance earnings growth | 2.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.3% |
| Future return on equity | 6.02% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 19 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 10
AGO: Earnings Resilience And AI Expansion Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Assured Guaranty steady at $92.33 while refining key model inputs only slightly, highlighting recent upgrade activity and the stock's discount to operating book value, along with its earnings resilience, as key supports for their updated price view. Analyst Commentary Street research on Assured Guaranty has been mixed recently, with some bullish analysts highlighting value upside and franchise strength, while more cautious voices focus on headline risk and earlier target reductions.Narrative Update • May 26
AGO: Earnings Resilience And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential
Assured Guaranty’s analyst fair value estimate has shifted from $102.33 to $92.33 as analysts weigh a higher discount rate against stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a lower future P/E, while also highlighting the stock’s current discount to operating book value and the company’s earnings resilience. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Assured Guaranty reflects a mix of constructive and cautious views, with attention on valuation, earnings durability and headline risk from specific exposures.Seeking Alpha • May 12
Assured Guaranty's Selloff Has Created A Strong Buying Opportunity
Summary Assured Guaranty (AGO) trades at a steep 39.8% of adjusted book value per share, despite strong compounding and robust capital allocation. Management’s strategic pivot reduces buybacks to fund growth in financial guaranty and annuity reinsurance, signaling a focus on organic expansion. Q1 2026 results were strong, with adjusted operating income of $2.50/share and new business production nearly doubling year-over-year. I see a compelling value disconnect; AGO’s respected guarantees, solid credit portfolio, and diversified growth justify a fair value above $100/share. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 01
AGO: Share Repurchases And Dividend Increase Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Assured Guaranty by about $4, citing updated assumptions that include a different fair value estimate, a slightly higher discount rate, and revised expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around the lower price target centers on updated valuation work rather than a single fundamental event.Analysis Article • Aug 01
There's No Escaping Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) Muted Earnings
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may...Analysis Article • May 01
Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) Low P/E
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.7x Assured Guaranty Ltd. ( NYSE:AGO ) may be sending bullish signals at...Analysis Article • Feb 18
We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Passed With Ease
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Jan 23
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s ( NYSE:AGO ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.4x might make it look like a strong buy...Seeking Alpha • Dec 27
Assured Guaranty Stock: Why It's Not For Me
Summary Assured Guaranty is a leading financial guaranty insurance provider with a stable AA rating, operating primarily in the U.S. and internationally. AGO has outperformed peers with a 437% total return, despite no recent growth and declining revenues and net income over the past decade. Assured Guaranty has maintained per-share performance by repurchasing 75% of its shares since 2012, supporting a 10% CAGR in book value per share. AGO stock's valuation is fair at 1.16x adjusted book value and 12x forward P/E, but risks include systemic credit events and international exposure. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 04
With EPS Growth And More, Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Makes An Interesting Case
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • Oct 06
Benign Growth For Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) Underpins Its Share Price
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.1x Assured Guaranty Ltd. ( NYSE:AGO ) may be sending very bullish...
New Narrative • Sep 02
Merger And Share Repurchase To Boost Efficiency But Facing Diminishing Margins And Legal Risks
Merger with Assured Guaranty Inc. aims for capital efficiency and operating improvements, indicating potential for future cost savings and operational effectiveness.Seeking Alpha • Aug 09
Assured Guaranty's Accretive Buybacks Continue To Grow Intrinsic Value
Summary Assured Guaranty common stock offers a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing attractive returns for investors. AGO's management has effectively utilized share buybacks, maintaining profitability and capital strength despite economic challenges. AGO's strong Q2 results, low exposure to below investment grade assets, and potential for future growth make it an appealing investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jul 29
Here's Why We Think Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • Jun 05
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) Low P/E
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s ( NYSE:AGO ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.6x might make it look like a strong buy...Analysis Article • Apr 28
Here's Why Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Analysis Article • Feb 25
Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.31
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s ( NYSE:AGO ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 20th of March to $0.31, with investors...Analysis Article • Jan 19
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Market
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,052 | 387 | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 859 | 309 | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| 12/31/2026 | 840 | 287 | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| 3/31/2026 | 814 | 411 | 362 | 362 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 832 | 499 | 259 | 259 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 911 | 400 | 266 | 266 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 891 | 464 | 228 | 228 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 884 | 440 | 208 | 208 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 830 | 373 | 47 | 47 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 867 | 728 | 204 | 204 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 865 | 714 | 9 | 9 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 1,000 | 760 | 75 | 75 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 970 | 733 | 461 | 461 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 933 | 453 | -373 | -373 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 855 | 309 | -249 | -249 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 687 | 138 | -1,275 | -1,275 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 818 | 123 | -2,479 | -2,479 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 777 | 293 | -1,993 | -1,993 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 887 | 299 | -2,782 | -2,782 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 899 | 444 | -2,363 | -2,363 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 744 | 389 | -1,937 | -1,937 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 858 | 273 | -1,981 | -1,981 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 845 | 342 | -1,357 | -1,357 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 1,009 | 427 | -1,155 | -1,155 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 1,023 | 361 | -853 | -853 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 970 | 350 | -808 | -808 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 987 | 333 | -756 | -756 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 933 | 292 | -341 | -341 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 942 | 401 | N/A | -509 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 928 | 353 | N/A | -255 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 993 | 444 | N/A | -180 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 979 | 378 | N/A | 103 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 1,072 | 520 | N/A | 462 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1,108 | 484 | N/A | 431 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 1,420 | 531 | N/A | 679 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 1,438 | 608 | N/A | 358 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 1,630 | 729 | N/A | 433 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 1,825 | 874 | N/A | 411 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 1,789 | 1,145 | N/A | 113 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 1,659 | 1,139 | N/A | 60 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1,387 | 880 | N/A | -132 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 1,749 | 1,111 | N/A | -202 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 1,559 | 762 | N/A | -204 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 1,873 | 912 | N/A | -165 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 2,008 | 1,055 | N/A | -71 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 2,159 | 1,159 | N/A | 191 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 2,324 | 1,385 | N/A | 460 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).
Earnings vs Market: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AGO's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AGO's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AGO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/14 09:01 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is covered by 12 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Giuliano Anderes Bologna | BTIG |
| Giuliano Anderes Bologna | Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC |
| Darin Arita | Deutsche Bank |