Ulta Beauty Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Ulta Beauty is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 5.5% and 5.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 39% in 3 years.
Key information
5.5%
Earnings growth rate
9.40%
EPS growth rate
| Specialty Retail earnings growth | 9.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.1% |
| Future return on equity | 39.02% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 12 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 29
ULTA: Earnings Flywheel And AI Personalization Will Support Bullish Outlook
Ulta Beauty's analyst price target has been revised lower, with the fair value estimate moving from $681.50 to $627.25 as analysts factor in slightly softer revenue growth, modestly lower margin expectations, and a more conservative future P/E following recent Q1 commentary and sector wide target reductions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ulta Beauty reflects a mixed but generally constructive tone, with most firms trimming price targets after Q1 while still highlighting solid execution, healthy category demand, and management discipline on costs and capital allocation.Seeking Alpha • Jun 28
Ulta Beauty: Market Share Gains At A Terrific P/E Ratio
Summary Ulta Beauty trades at a discount despite strong sales trends and market share gains. Investors’ fears have driven ULTA shares down ~20% YTD, creating a value opportunity. Capital rotation out of mega-cap tech has left retail, including ULTA, undervalued relative to fundamentals. I see ULTA’s fundamental performance diverging positively from its depressed share price, supporting a contrarian value thesis. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 21
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Could Be 33.1% Undervalued After Earnings Beat
Why Ulta Beauty Stock Is Back on Investors’ Radar Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is drawing fresh attention after its latest quarterly report showed revenue and earnings per share ahead of Wall Street estimates, supported by stronger comparable sales and continued store expansion. See our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty. Despite the earnings beat, Ulta Beauty’s share price is down 26.44% year to date and has fallen 13.93% over 90 days, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 30.75% points to longer...
Narrative Update • Jun 15
ULTA: Prestige Share Gains And Times Square Flagship Will Drive Future Upside
Ulta Beauty's analyst price target has been reduced from $810 to $735, reflecting analysts' updated expectations for slightly softer revenue growth and profit margins as competition intensifies and recent Q1 strength meets tougher same store sales and earnings comparisons ahead. Analyst Commentary Recent research is broadly constructive on Ulta Beauty, even as many firms trim their price targets to reflect tougher comparable sales and margin debates.
Narrative Update • Jun 01
ULTA: Earnings Outlook And Cost Discipline Will Shape Balanced Future Upside Potential
Ulta Beauty's updated analyst price target edges higher to about $504, as analysts balance more cautious margin and P/E assumptions with slightly stronger modeled revenue growth and a modestly higher discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ulta Beauty shows a wide spread of views, with some firms trimming price targets and others staying constructive on the longer term story.Narrative Update • May 16
ULTA: Earnings Flywheel And Unleashed Strategy Will Drive Future Upside
Ulta Beauty's analyst price target is unchanged at $810, as analysts balance recent target cuts in the $475 to $799 range with support from those who see an improving earnings flywheel, solid category trends, and ongoing margin and profit expectations. These are reflected in a steady fair value and modest tweaks to growth, discount rate, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 30
ULTA: Unleashed Plan And AI Personalization Will Support Bullish Outlook
Ulta Beauty's analyst price target has been updated modestly higher, with fair value moving from about $673.50 to $681.50 as analysts factor in slightly adjusted growth, margin, and P/E assumptions following a mix of target raises and trims tied to recent earnings, guidance, and views on the "Unleashed" growth plan. Analyst Commentary Street research around Ulta Beauty is mixed, with many firms still positive on the long term setup while trimming price targets after recent quarterly results and guidance.Narrative Update • Apr 16
ULTA: Middle East Expansion And EPS Guidance Will Support Bullish Outlook
Ulta Beauty's analyst fair value estimate has been trimmed by about $10.88 to $673.50 as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue growth assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple, while still modeling a small improvement in profit margins. Analyst Commentary Street research around Ulta Beauty has been active, with several firms updating price targets and ratings following recent results and guidance.Narrative Update • Apr 02
ULTA: International Expansion And Loyalty Flywheel Will Support Higher Earnings Power
The analyst fair value estimate for Ulta Beauty has been raised from $790 to $810. This reflects updated views on slightly lower revenue growth assumptions, modestly higher profit margins, a lower discount rate, and Street research that highlights both recent price target adjustments and ongoing support for the company's competitive position and earnings outlook.Narrative Update • Mar 19
ULTA: Mixed Margin Signals And New Initiatives Will Shape Future Upside Potential
The updated analyst price target for Ulta Beauty edges higher to about $504 from about $485, as analysts factor in slightly lower modeled revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin profile, and a small adjustment in the future P/E and discount rate following recent research updates that balance mixed post earnings reactions with ongoing support for the business model. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ulta Beauty reflects a mixed backdrop, with many firms adjusting models and price targets after the latest quarterly update and forward guidance.Narrative Update • Mar 04
ULTA: Fair Outlook Balances Middle East Expansion With Ongoing Demand Uncertainty
Ulta Beauty's analyst-derived fair value estimate has shifted from about $675 to roughly $684, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and forward P/E multiples following a series of recent price target increases and rating actions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research activity around Ulta Beauty has been active, with several firms updating price targets and ratings as they refresh their models on revenue growth, profitability, and sector positioning in specialty beauty retail.Narrative Update • Feb 18
ULTA: International Expansion And Retail Execution Will Support A Higher Multiple
The analyst fair value estimate for Ulta Beauty has been raised from $725 to $790, as analysts factor in updated assumptions for growth, margins, discount rate, and future P/E following a series of higher price targets and rating actions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ulta Beauty has tilted firmly positive, with a cluster of higher price targets and fresh or reaffirmed positive ratings framing the stock as a key specialty beauty name for many institutional desks.Narrative Update • Feb 04
ULTA: Earnings Momentum And Middle East Expansion Will Face Spending Uncertainty
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Ulta Beauty from about $603 to roughly $675, citing updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue, modestly stronger profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple reflected across a series of recent price target increases and rating actions. Analyst Commentary The recent wave of research updates on Ulta Beauty clusters around higher price targets and a mix of upbeat and more measured views on execution and competitive risk.Narrative Update • Jan 21
ULTA: Rising Sector Optimism Will Likely Mask Mounting Margin Investment Risk
Our analyst price target for Ulta Beauty has been lifted from US$477.51 to US$485.43 as analysts factor in stronger top line expectations, a slightly higher future P/E assumption, and broadly supportive recent research that highlights sector optimism and Ulta's execution, even though it requires ongoing investment to address competitive pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Ulta Beauty has centered on higher price targets and refreshed views on the core beauty retail story, with several firms updating their models after company meetings, store visits, and broader sector reviews.Narrative Update • Jan 06
ULTA: Inventory Discipline And Macro Tailwinds Will Support A Higher Multiple
Narrative Update: Ulta Beauty Analysts have lifted their implied fair value estimate for Ulta Beauty from about US$468 to roughly US$725, citing higher assumed revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, a richer future P/E multiple, and a sector view that highlights inventory discipline and potential macro support from lower interest rates and gas prices. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent fair value re-rating for Ulta Beauty within a wider positive view on specialty retail, pointing to supportive sector trends and company specific execution as key drivers behind higher implied values.Narrative Update • Dec 20
ULTA: Margin Recovery Hopes Will Likely Prove Overly Optimistic
Analysts have raised their price target on Ulta Beauty by roughly $62 to approximately $478 per share, citing sustained earnings outperformance, improving growth and margin expectations, and strategic expansion via the Space NK acquisition, despite recent share underperformance. Analyst Commentary While the latest upgrade and higher price targets reflect growing confidence in Ulta Beauty's strategy and earnings power, some bearish analysts remain cautious on the stock's risk reward profile.Narrative Update • Dec 05
ULTA Will Navigate Earnings Momentum And New Markets Amid Spending Uncertainty
Analysts have lifted their price target for Ulta Beauty by about $29 to roughly $603 per share, citing continued earnings outperformance, improving revenue growth and margins, and confidence in the growth potential from its Space NK acquisition despite broader consumer spending concerns. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the upgraded rating reflects growing confidence in Ulta Beauty's ability to sustain earnings outperformance, even as the stock has lagged broader market benchmarks in recent months.Narrative Update • Aug 27
Launching Beyoncé's Hair Care And Enhancing Digital Capabilities Will Deepen Guest Engagement In Future
Ulta Beauty's consensus analyst price target has been raised from $518.41 to $545.36, reflecting sustained top-line momentum, operational improvements, and strategic initiatives such as digital enhancements and brand partnerships, though further upside is seen as contingent on continued fundamental execution given elevated expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to sustained top-line momentum, improving fundamentals, and positive comparable sales trends, with multiple forecasting near-term earnings beats and raised FY25 guidance.Analysis Article • Jul 15
We Like Ulta Beauty's (NASDAQ:ULTA) Returns And Here's How They're Trending
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll...Seeking Alpha • Mar 02
Ulta Beauty: Getting More Attractive With Each Visit, Just Like Its Customers
Summary Ulta Beauty's resilient operating performance, even during downturns, and consistent profitability make it a high-quality investment in a competitive, discretionary industry. The company's organic growth, international expansion, and strong customer loyalty drive future growth potential, despite competition from Sephora. Ulta's aggressive share buybacks and low valuation multiples suggest substantial value accretion for shareholders, aligning management interests with investors. Trading at a steep discount to historical valuation metrics, Ulta Beauty presents an attractive investment opportunity with a clean balance sheet and shareholder-friendly management. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 28
Ulta Beauty: More Headwinds Ahead As Growth Stalls & Balance Sheet Deteriorates
Summary ULTA continues to underperform in comparable/ net sales performance compared to ELF and LVMH owned Sephora, despite the recently raised FY2024 guidance. This is worsened by the rather aggressive store expansions, as ULTA reports impacted Free Cash Flow generation and deteriorating balance sheet. While the ongoing share retirement has been a net positive for long-term shareholders, the company's maturing growth profile is undeniable indeed. As a result, we believe that ULTA remains expensive at current levels, as the recovery from the November 2024 bottoms occurs overly fast and furious. This is on top of the higher short interest volume by +89% on a YoY basis and the near-term uncertainties surrounding the change of its top management. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 23
Ulta Beauty Looks Ready To Shine (Technical Analysis)
Summary Ulta Beauty is a buy due to bullish price action, including higher highs and lows, and trading above its 30-week EMA for three weeks. Momentum is positive, with the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) indicating both short-term and long-term bullish trends. Volume analysis suggests institutional investors are accumulating ULTA, and relative strength shows recent outperformance against the S&P 500. Stop loss recommended below the 30-week EMA or $370 support level, with a price target of $560, higher than the article's $490 target. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 25
Ulta Beauty: What To Think Of Berkshire's Short Holding Period
Summary Ulta Beauty's stock has declined as Berkshire Hathaway sold its stake, raising concerns for other investors. Recent results show weakening consumer demand and flat to negative sales growth projections for 2024. Despite recent weakness, Ulta's two-year comparable sales are still strong, but future growth may be limited due to U.S. market saturation. Ulta continues robust share repurchases, with a new $2 billion program authorized, but top-line headwinds challenge its current valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 12
I'm Finally Buying Ulta Beauty's Bold Transition Phase (Rating Upgrade)
Summary I have upgraded Ulta Beauty stock to a Buy rating due to promising store expansion plans and undervaluation by the market. ULTA's shift towards aggressive store expansion, including geographical growth into Mexico, is expected to boost future growth beyond conservative management targets. Despite current market pessimism, I believe Ulta can overachieve 4-6% revenue growth, making its shares undervalued by approximately 14-15%. Risks include discretionary spending cyclicity, competition from Sephora and Amazon, and elevated inventory levels, but Ulta's strategic shifts offer significant growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 21
Ulta Beauty: Investor Day Unveils Long-Term Value
Summary Ulta Beauty projects double-digit EPS growth by 2026, despite weak guidance for FY2024 and FY2025 and a period of increased investments. The long-term vision includes over 1,800 stores in the USA and expansion into Mexico in 2025 to establish a franchising model. Investments in store expansion are expected to yield +20% returns, with 70% of capital expenditures focused on store presence, up from 50%. Investors should focus on ULTA's long-term potential instead of FY2024, leveraging the market's impatience for short-term gains. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 11
Ulta Beauty: A Compelling Investment In An Expensive Market
Summary I'm initiating Ulta Beauty at a buy rating with a $448 price target, or ~25% upside from current levels. The stock is down more than 25% this year on self-inflicted problems, including an ERP mess that has been since resolved and an ongoing price war between retailers. Still, the company's renewed focus on its e-commerce channel and social media marketing, plus recent acceleration in online sales, can help get Ulta back on the right path. The stock is cheap at ~14x next year's earnings. Use the dip here as a buying opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 18
Bottom Fishing Ulta Beauty With Buffett (Technical Analysis)
Summary Warren Buffett's interest in Ulta Beauty suggests potential undervaluation, attracting attention from bottom fishers despite our focus on momentum investing. Bottom fishing is highly regarded on Wall St. for its difficulty, as it involves identifying winners that the market hates. Our SID scoring system tracks ULTA for a potential shift from a Sell to a Hold signal, indicating upward momentum. We monitor ULTA daily, awaiting the SID signal change, but it hasn't done that yet. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 06
The Fading Allure Of Ulta (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Ulta's recent financial performance shows increased inventory (10%) alongside falling comp sales and profits, indicating unsuccessful attempts to gain market share through pricing strategies. Online competitors like Amazon and Walmart are emerging as significant threats in the beauty product market, offering lower prices and a wider range of products. Ulta lacks differentiation in in-store services compared to Sephora, which offers more polished beauty consultations that effectively increase sales conversion. We believe management is too conservative and slow to act, resulting in Ulta lacking effective differentiation. Consequently, the company has limited upside potential in both the short-term and long term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 02
Expanding Beauty Empire Fuels Revenue Growth Amid Evolving Challenges
Ulta Beauty's expansion and new store formats project a confident growth strategy aimed at increasing its market presence and attracting more customers.Seeking Alpha • Aug 30
Ulta Beauty's Ugly Day
Summary Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Q2 2024 results disappointed, with revenue and earnings below analyst expectations, leading to a 7% stock drop at one point during the day. Despite challenges, Ulta Beauty remains a strong, growing business with no debt, $414 million in cash, and an ongoing $2 billion share buyback program. The company's valuation is attractive, and management's confidence in share buybacks highlights the stock's perceived undervaluation, making it a compelling investment opportunity. I maintain a “buy” rating for Ulta Beauty, given its robust cash flows, growth prospects, and strategic capital allocation despite recent setbacks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2029 | 14,666 | 1,391 | N/A | 1,645 | 11 |
| 1/31/2028 | 13,952 | 1,323 | 1,182 | 1,642 | 25 |
| 1/31/2027 | 13,245 | 1,242 | 1,113 | 1,759 | 25 |
| 5/2/2026 | 12,708 | 1,189 | 1,131 | 1,545 | N/A |
| 1/31/2026 | 12,393 | 1,153 | 1,068 | 1,503 | N/A |
| 11/1/2025 | 11,982 | 1,190 | 1,042 | 1,359 | N/A |
| 8/2/2025 | 11,655 | 1,201 | 952 | 1,296 | N/A |
| 5/3/2025 | 11,418 | 1,193 | 1,037 | 1,399 | N/A |
| 2/1/2025 | 11,296 | 1,201 | 964 | 1,339 | N/A |
| 11/2/2024 | 11,362 | 1,202 | 996 | 1,420 | N/A |
| 8/3/2024 | 11,321 | 1,210 | 990 | 1,406 | N/A |
| 5/4/2024 | 11,299 | 1,257 | 914 | 1,331 | N/A |
| 2/3/2024 | 11,207 | 1,291 | 1,041 | 1,476 | N/A |
| 10/28/2023 | 10,880 | 1,237 | 847 | 1,267 | N/A |
| 7/29/2023 | 10,730 | 1,262 | 974 | 1,370 | N/A |
| 4/29/2023 | 10,497 | 1,258 | 1,010 | 1,361 | N/A |
| 1/28/2023 | 10,209 | 1,242 | 1,170 | 1,482 | N/A |
| 10/29/2022 | 9,711 | 1,191 | 950 | 1,218 | N/A |
| 7/30/2022 | 9,368 | 1,132 | 963 | 1,199 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 9,038 | 1,087 | 947 | 1,156 | N/A |
| 1/29/2022 | 8,631 | 986 | 887 | 1,059 | N/A |
| 10/30/2021 | 8,100 | 868 | 823 | 966 | N/A |
| 7/31/2021 | 7,656 | 727 | 1,064 | 1,196 | N/A |
| 5/1/2021 | 6,917 | 485 | 1,020 | 1,165 | N/A |
| 1/30/2021 | 6,152 | 176 | 658 | 810 | N/A |
| 10/31/2020 | 6,259 | 227 | 629 | 803 | N/A |
| 8/1/2020 | 6,390 | 282 | 446 | 670 | N/A |
| 5/2/2020 | 6,828 | 435 | 537 | 805 | N/A |
| 2/1/2020 | 7,398 | 706 | N/A | 1,101 | N/A |
| 11/2/2019 | 7,217 | 698 | N/A | 971 | N/A |
| 8/3/2019 | 7,094 | 699 | N/A | 1,015 | N/A |
| 5/4/2019 | 6,916 | 686 | N/A | 951 | N/A |
| 2/2/2019 | 6,717 | 659 | N/A | 956 | N/A |
| 11/3/2018 | 6,529 | 652 | N/A | 992 | N/A |
| 8/4/2018 | 6,312 | 626 | N/A | 947 | N/A |
| 5/5/2018 | 6,113 | 591 | N/A | 881 | N/A |
| 2/3/2018 | 5,885 | 555 | N/A | 779 | N/A |
| 10/28/2017 | 5,527 | 487 | N/A | 640 | N/A |
| 7/29/2017 | 5,317 | 470 | N/A | 635 | N/A |
| 4/29/2017 | 5,096 | 446 | N/A | 643 | N/A |
| 1/28/2017 | 4,855 | 410 | N/A | 634 | N/A |
| 10/29/2016 | 4,542 | 377 | N/A | 550 | N/A |
| 7/30/2016 | 4,322 | 361 | N/A | 470 | N/A |
| 4/30/2016 | 4,130 | 345 | N/A | 475 | N/A |
| 1/30/2016 | 3,924 | 320 | N/A | 376 | N/A |
| 10/31/2015 | 3,703 | 299 | N/A | 399 | N/A |
| 8/1/2015 | 3,538 | 288 | N/A | 389 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ULTA's forecast earnings growth (5.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: ULTA's earnings (5.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (18.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ULTA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ULTA's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ULTA's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ULTA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (39%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/30 22:07 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/05/02 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is covered by 35 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Deborah Ciervo | Argus Research Company |
| Mark Altschwager | Baird |
| Adrienne Yih-Tennant | Barclays |