Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 5.20%Ulta Beauty's consensus analyst price target has been raised from $518.41 to $545.36, reflecting sustained top-line momentum, operational improvements, and strategic initiatives such as digital enhancements and brand partnerships, though further upside is seen as contingent on continued fundamental execution given elevated expectations.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts point to sustained top-line momentum, improving fundamentals, and positive comparable sales trends, with multiple forecasting near-term earnings beats and raised FY25 guidance.
- Strategic initiatives, such as the "Beauty Unleashed" plan, enhanced digital efforts (including subscribe and save), refreshed brand partnerships, and international expansion, are seen as key drivers strengthening Ulta's competitive positioning.
- Recent management changes, including new CEO leadership, have streamlined the organization and are credited with reigniting operational execution and progress in turnaround efforts.
- Margin expansion, improved promotional discipline, and relatively limited tariff headwinds contribute to a more favorable earnings outlook, while analysts cite vendor, competitor, and point-of-sales data as supportive of upwardly revised comp estimates.
- Despite the robust run-up in share price, some analysts caution that additional upside will depend on continued fundamental improvement, as expectations are now elevated and risk/reward balances into near-term results.
What's in the News
- Jefferies raised its price target on Ulta Beauty to $550 from $425, citing improved fundamentals from new brand launches and positive sales trends, but maintains a Hold rating as further fundamental improvements are needed for the next phase of share price appreciation (Jefferies, 2025-08-25).
- Ulta Beauty is nearing an acquisition of UK-based beauty retailer Space NK from Manzanita Capital, with the deal reportedly valued at well over GBP 300 million (Sky News, 2025-07-10).
- Ulta Beauty has announced a wave of new brand launches and partnerships, including Moroccanoil’s expanded in-store presence, the nationwide debut of K-Beauty World, exclusive retail of Shakira-backed isima, and a rollout of Versed and SACHEU’s full assortments, strengthening Ulta’s positioning as a destination for trending and diverse beauty brands (Company Announcements, June-August 2025).
- Ulta and Target have mutually decided not to renew the Ulta Beauty at Target shop-in-shop partnership beyond August 2026, though current operations and rewards benefits will continue until then (Company Announcement, 2025-08-14).
- Ulta reaffirmed and modestly raised its 2025 guidance, expects FY25 net sales of $11.5–$11.7 billion and EPS of $22.65–$23.20, completed a share buyback of 3.79% of shares since October 2024, and appointed Chris Lialios as interim CFO following the departure of Paula Oyibo (Company Guidance & Executive Changes, May-August 2025).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Ulta Beauty
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $518.41 to $545.36.
- The Future P/E for Ulta Beauty has risen slightly from 21.15x to 21.98x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Ulta Beauty remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.27% to 9.37%.
Disclaimer
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