China Vanke Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
China Vanke's revenue is forecast to decline at 3.9% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 84.5% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 82.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -15% in 3 years.
Key information
84.5%
Earnings growth rate
82.21%
EPS growth rate
| Real Estate earnings growth | 44.9% |
| Revenue growth rate | -3.9% |
| Future return on equity | -15.05% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 25 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 12
000002: Higher Future P/E Will Support Recovery As Margins Stabilize
Analysts have nudged their price target for China Vanke slightly lower to reflect a fair value of CN¥4.73 per share, citing reduced profit margin assumptions and a higher expected P/E multiple ahead. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, to review and approve the annual results of China Vanke and its subsidiaries for the year ended 31 December 2025, and to consider recommending a final dividend, if any.Narrative Update • May 28
000002: Higher 2025 Margin Outlook Will Support Recovery Despite Lower Future P/E
Analysts have trimmed their price target on China Vanke to CN¥4.77 from CN¥4.86, citing slightly softer revenue expectations, along with a modestly higher projected profit margin, a lower assumed discount rate and a reduced forward P/E multiple. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for March 31, 2026, to review annual results for the year ended December 31, 2025, and to consider a potential final dividend recommendation for shareholders, if any (Key Developments).Narrative Update • May 03
000002: Higher 2025 Margin Outlook Will Support Recovery Despite Lower Future P/E
Analysts have trimmed their CN¥ fair value estimate for China Vanke slightly to CN¥4.86. This reflects updated assumptions for a smaller revenue decline, a higher profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Apr 19
000002: Larger 2025 Loss Will Set Up Recovery As Higher Future P/E Emerges
China Vanke’s analyst price target has been adjusted to reflect updated fair value assumptions of CN¥4.89 from CN¥5.13, with analysts citing slightly higher discount rates, softer revenue growth expectations, and a modestly lower profit margin outlook, partially offset by a higher assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for March 31, 2026 to review and approve the annual results for the year ended December 31, 2025 and to consider the recommendation of a final dividend, if any (company announcement).Narrative Update • Apr 05
000002: Larger 2025 Loss And Higher P/E Multiple Will Support Future Rebound
China Vanke's analyst price target has been revised to CN¥5.13 from CN¥5.30 as analysts factor in updated assumptions around a smaller projected revenue decline, lower profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for March 31, 2026 to review annual results for the year ended December 31, 2025 and to consider a final dividend recommendation, if any (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 22
000002: Wider 2025 Loss Guidance Will Support Future Earnings Recovery Potential
Analysts have reduced their CN¥ fair value estimate for China Vanke to CN¥5.30. The change reflects slightly higher discount rate assumptions and a modestly adjusted forward P/E outlook, while revenue contraction and profit margin expectations remain broadly unchanged.Narrative Update • Mar 08
000002: Wider 2025 Loss Guidance Will Set Up Future Recovery Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on China Vanke to CN¥5.30, reflecting slightly higher discount rate assumptions, marginally stronger profit margin expectations, and a modest adjustment to future P/E inputs. What's in the News China Vanke released preliminary unaudited guidance for 2025, indicating an expected loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 82,000m for the full year, compared with a loss of RMB 49,478.4292m a year earlier (company guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 22
000002: Wider 2025 Loss Guidance And Stable Fair Value Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their CN¥ price target on China Vanke slightly, citing a marginally lower discount rate, a small improvement in profit margin assumptions to 12.09%, and a modestly reduced future P/E estimate of 4.77x as key drivers of the revision. What's in the News China Vanke has issued preliminary unaudited earnings guidance for the full year 2025, indicating a loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 82,000m for the period from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2025, compared with a loss of RMB 49,478.4292m a year earlier (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 07
000002: Wider 2025 Loss Outlook And Margin Shift Will Shape Future Performance
Analysts have trimmed their price target for China Vanke to about US$5.30 from roughly US$5.53, citing slightly weaker expected revenue and a lower future P/E multiple. This is partly offset by a modest improvement in projected profit margins and a reduced discount rate.Narrative Update • Jan 24
000002: Upcoming Loan Deal With Shenzhen Metro Will Support Future Performance
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for China Vanke lower from US$5.93 to US$5.53, citing softer revenue expectations and a slightly higher discount rate, partly offset by a firmer profit margin outlook and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News China Vanke and Tangshan Most Elite Real Estate Co., Ltd.Narrative Update • Jan 08
000002: Upcoming Loan Deal With Shenzhen Metro Will Support Future Performance
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for China Vanke from about ¥6.17 to ¥5.93 as they factor in a steeper forecast revenue contraction of around 18% and a slightly higher discount rate, partly offset by expectations for a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Tangshan Most Elite Real Estate and China Vanke are collaborating on Vanke Jinyu Huafu, a high end residential project in the Fengrun District of Tangshan City.Narrative Update • Dec 20
000002: Upcoming Loan Framework Approval Will Support Future Performance
Analysts have trimmed their price target on China Vanke slightly to about $6.17 from roughly $6.24, reflecting modestly softer expectations for revenue growth despite largely unchanged profit margin and valuation assumptions. What's in the News China Vanke and Tangshan Most Elite Real Estate completed and fully sold out the Vanke Jinyu Huafu luxury residential project in Tangshan, spanning over 50,000 square metres of land with 10 residential towers and a central private garden (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 06
000002: Upcoming Shareholder Meeting And Loan Deal Will Drive Future Performance
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target on China Vanke, trimming fair value by about $0.17 per share as they factor in a marginally higher discount rate and slightly weaker revenue growth expectations, while assuming profit margins and future valuation multiples remain broadly unchanged. What's in the News China Vanke and Tangshan Most Elite Real Estate completed the sell out of the Vanke Jinyu Huafu luxury residential project in Tangshan, spanning over 170,000 square metres across 10 towers.Narrative Update • Nov 22
000002: Upcoming Shareholder Meeting And Profit Margin Outlook Will Shape Performance
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for China Vanke, adjusting the fair value estimate from $6.44 to $6.40 per share. This change is based on updated discount rates and profitability forecasts.Narrative Update • Nov 04
000002: Upcoming Meetings And Margin Strength Will Support Stability Through 2025
Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for China Vanke from $6.54 to $6.44 per share. This revision reflects improved profit margins, but also more cautious expectations for revenue growth in the latest update.Narrative Update • Sep 27
Diversified Financial Strategies Will Reduce Liabilities And Restore Stability
China Vanke’s fair value estimate was revised down as its net profit margin deteriorated materially, despite a lower discount rate, resulting in a consensus price target cut from CN¥6.80 to CN¥6.54. What's in the News China Vanke will hold a board meeting to consider and approve interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2025.Narrative Update • Aug 27
Diversified Financial Strategies Will Reduce Liabilities And Restore Stability
Despite a slight improvement in revenue growth forecasts, China Vanke’s consensus price target has been marginally revised down to CN¥6.80. What's in the News China Vanke's board meeting is scheduled to consider and approve interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2025.
New Narrative • Feb 09
Diversified Financial Strategies Will Reduce Liabilities And Restore Stability
Strategic diversification and improved financial strategies aim to reduce liabilities, enhance financial stability, and drive revenue growth.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 140,250 | -7,177 | N/A | -8,932 | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 142,201 | -12,011 | N/A | -2,078 | 4 |
| 12/31/2026 | 141,480 | -17,705 | 9,512 | -19,269 | 1 |
| 3/31/2026 | 224,366 | -88,262 | -216 | 2,641 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 233,433 | -88,556 | -4,183 | -988 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 284,670 | -59,551 | -303 | 2,758 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 305,721 | -51,573 | 2,673 | 5,937 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 319,577 | -55,363 | 3,281 | 7,429 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 343,176 | -49,478 | -720 | 3,800 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 395,325 | -19,402 | -8,773 | -1,171 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 407,625 | -7,560 | -11,011 | -3,129 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 458,859 | 10,355 | -20,277 | -12,510 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 465,739 | 12,163 | -4,533 | 3,912 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 456,474 | 19,217 | -3,691 | 7,161 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 497,815 | 20,308 | -14,525 | -3,673 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 509,645 | 22,705 | 9,131 | 23,011 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 503,838 | 22,689 | -10,328 | 2,750 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 518,985 | 22,929 | -13,782 | -1,282 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 492,603 | 23,728 | -6,954 | 5,620 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 453,201 | 22,661 | -35,951 | -26,025 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 452,798 | 22,524 | -5,673 | 4,113 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 449,106 | 38,342 | 12,667 | 21,027 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 439,873 | 40,055 | 29,975 | 37,364 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 433,601 | 41,558 | 65,500 | 73,021 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 419,112 | 41,516 | 45,825 | 53,188 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 385,471 | 40,494 | 70,506 | 77,333 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 374,923 | 39,538 | 54,081 | 59,440 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 367,294 | 39,001 | 63,484 | 69,446 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 367,894 | 38,872 | N/A | 45,687 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 345,572 | 38,029 | N/A | 61,084 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 331,025 | 36,491 | N/A | 46,726 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 315,228 | 33,998 | N/A | 34,659 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 297,679 | 33,773 | N/A | 33,618 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 301,819 | 30,945 | N/A | 39,885 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 279,061 | 29,873 | N/A | 56,218 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 255,133 | 28,251 | N/A | 64,093 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 242,897 | 28,052 | N/A | 82,323 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 240,523 | 23,851 | N/A | 13,286 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 235,492 | 22,974 | N/A | 35,619 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 244,455 | 20,885 | N/A | 40,768 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 240,477 | 21,023 | N/A | 39,566 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 233,008 | 19,527 | N/A | 63,715 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 220,078 | 18,624 | N/A | 48,652 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 201,266 | 18,302 | N/A | 20,664 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 195,549 | 18,119 | N/A | 16,046 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 162,845 | 16,142 | N/A | 19,837 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 155,693 | 15,782 | N/A | 31,484 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: 000002 is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: 000002 is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: 000002 is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: 000002's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: 000002's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.9% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: 000002 is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/28 23:31 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/26 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
China Vanke Co., Ltd. is covered by 27 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Katrina Fu | Bernstein |
| Karl Choi | BofA Global Research |
| Leslie Vandegrift | CGS International |