Upcoming Dividend • Jun 25
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.025 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 02 July 2026. Payment date: 20 July 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.8%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 18
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.5% to HK$2.43. The fair value is estimated to be HK$3.14, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 16% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 66%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 9.1% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 20% per annum over the same time period. Live News • May 10
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Sees 27% April Sales Growth and Expands Ownership in Key Projects April 2026 contracted sales grew 27.3% year on year, with the January to April 2026 period up 19.6% compared with the same period a year earlier.
The group reported no new land acquisitions in April 2026.
Earlier in the year, the company acquired full interest in the Medical High Tech Zone Project in Taizhou and the remaining equity in two cooperative projects in Hefei City.
For you as an investor, the sales figures give a snapshot of current demand for the company’s projects over both a monthly and year-to-date period. The absence of new land acquisitions in April sits alongside earlier deals in Taizhou and Hefei, which shift the portfolio mix toward projects where the company now has full ownership.
Those earlier acquisitions can affect how future earnings are shared, since the company now holds all or remaining equity in those projects rather than sharing with partners. When you assess the stock, you may want to track how contracted sales trends compare with peers and how the timing and scale of land investment line up with the company’s focus on particular cities and project types. Announcement • Apr 02
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 23, 2026 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 23, 2026 Declared Dividend • Mar 25
Final dividend of HK$0.025 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of HK$0.025. Ex-date: 2nd July 2026 Payment date: 20th July 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 6.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (45% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (3% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.8% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 96% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Mar 24
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.086 (down from CN¥0.27 in FY 2024). Revenue: CN¥36.9b (down 20% from FY 2024). Net income: CN¥304.7m (down 68% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 2.1% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.1%. Revenue is expected to decline by 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 2.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 56 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Mar 23
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2026 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2026, at 10:00 China Standard Time. Announcement • Mar 02
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Mar 23, 2026 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Mar 23, 2026 Price Target Changed • Feb 27
Price target increased by 10% to HK$2.97 Up from HK$2.69, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of HK$2.92. Stock is up 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.091 for next year compared to CN¥0.27 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to HK$2.51, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 22% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from CN¥0.10 to CN¥0.118. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥34.4b. Net income forecast to grow 28% next year vs 30% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Consensus price target up from HK$2.77 to HK$2.88. Share price fell 10% to HK$2.06 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to HK$2.03, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$0.86 per share. Announcement • Oct 02
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 22, 2025 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 22, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 11
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.01 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 18 September 2025. Payment date: 17 October 2025. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 76%, however this is supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (6.6%). In line with average of industry peers (4.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 35% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥37.3b to CN¥34.5b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.192 per share to CN¥0.124 per share. Net income forecast to grow 41% next year vs 39% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Consensus price target up from HK$2.39 to HK$2.77. Share price rose 6.5% to HK$2.45 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Aug 27
First half dividend of HK$0.01 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of HK$0.01. Ex-date: 18th September 2025 Payment date: 17th October 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is lower than the industry average of 6.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (76% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (4% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.6% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 134% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Price Target Changed • Aug 27
Price target increased by 10% to HK$2.63 Up from HK$2.39, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 20% above last closing price of HK$2.20. Stock is up 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.16 for next year compared to CN¥0.27 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 26
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.08 (vs CN¥0.25 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.08 (down from CN¥0.25 in 1H 2024). Revenue: CN¥14.5b (down 33% from 1H 2024). Net income: CN¥283.8m (down 68% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 2.0% (down from 4.0% in 1H 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 15% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to HK$2.36, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 16% over the past three years. Announcement • Aug 04
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 25, 2025 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 25, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Jul 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from CN¥37.0b to CN¥39.7b. EPS estimate increased from CN¥0.249 to CN¥0.313 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 29% next year vs 44% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Hong Kong . Consensus price target of HK$2.35 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.2% to HK$1.82 over the past week. New Risk • Jul 06
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.1% net profit margin). Announcement • Jun 29
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Appoints Liu Ping as Additional Member of Nomination Committee, Effective 27 June 2025 The board of directors of China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that Ms. Liu Ping, the current Non-executive Director of the Company, has been appointed as an additional member of the nomination committee of the Company with effect from 27 June 2025. Announcement • Jun 23
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Approves Final Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2024 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that at its AGM held on June 23, 2025, shareholders approved the final dividend of HKD 7 Cents per ordinary share for the year ended December 31, 2024. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 18
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.07 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 25 June 2025. Payment date: 15 July 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 5.7%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.9%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 29
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to HK$1.74. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.43, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 51%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 10% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 4.1% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.27 (down from CN¥0.65 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥45.9b (down 19% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥954.1m (down 59% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.1% (down from 4.1% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 47%. Revenue is expected to decline by 9.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 4.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 27% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Apr 02
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 23, 2025 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 23, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Apr 02
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥45.8b to CN¥37.0b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.478 to CN¥0.198 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 26% next year vs 49% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Hong Kong . Consensus price target down from HK$2.40 to HK$2.32. Share price fell 7.2% to HK$1.80 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.27 (down from CN¥0.65 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥45.9b (down 19% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥954.1m (down 59% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.1% (down from 4.1% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 47%. Revenue is expected to decline by 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 4.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 24% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 26
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 23, 2025 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 23, 2025, at 10:00 China Standard Time. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 14
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 12% to HK$2.02. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.65, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 41%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 11% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 21% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Mar 05
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 26, 2025 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Mar 26, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 21% After last week's 21% share price gain to HK$2.10, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 43% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$1.69 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 26
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 15% to HK$2.05. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.69, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 41%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 8.5% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 23% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 01
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 36% to HK$2.10. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.72, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 41%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 15% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 11% in the next 2 years. Price Target Changed • Oct 16
Price target increased by 11% to HK$2.36 Up from HK$2.13, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of HK$2.35. Stock is down 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.49 for next year compared to CN¥0.65 last year. Announcement • Oct 04
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 21, 2024 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 21, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 30
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.1% to HK$2.11. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.73, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 41%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 18% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 11% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 33% After last week's 33% share price gain to HK$1.97, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 49% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$1.73 per share. Reported Earnings • Sep 25
First half 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.25 (down from CN¥0.48 in 1H 2023). Revenue: CN¥21.9b (down 20% from 1H 2023). Net income: CN¥884.6m (down 49% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 6.3% in 1H 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 14%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 10%. Revenue is expected to decline by 8.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 4.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 29% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 12
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.03 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 September 2024. Payment date: 18 October 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 31% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 9.9%. Within top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (8.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.6%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.556 to CN¥0.468 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥47.1b. Net income forecast to grow 12% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Consensus price target down from HK$2.38 to HK$2.13. Share price rose 2.7% to HK$1.53 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 28
Price target decreased by 11% to HK$2.13 Down from HK$2.38, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 48% above last closing price of HK$1.44. Stock is down 54% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.47 for next year compared to CN¥0.65 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 28
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 32% to HK$1.44. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.83, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 41%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 16% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 17% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • Aug 26
First half dividend of announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of . Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (31% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (6% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 35% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 26
First half 2024 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations First half 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.25 (down from CN¥0.48 in 1H 2023). Revenue: CN¥21.9b (down 20% from 1H 2023). Net income: CN¥884.6m (down 49% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 6.3% in 1H 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 5.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 34% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Aug 23
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Announces Interim (Semi-Annual) Dividend for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2024, Payable 18 October 2024 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced Interim (Semi-annual) Dividend of HKD 0.03 per share for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2024, Ex-dividend date 19 September 2024, Record date 23 September 2024, Payment date 18 October 2024. Announcement • Aug 07
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 23, 2024 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 23, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 25
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to HK$1.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 55% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$1.89 per share. Announcement • Jun 24
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Declare Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2023 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced at the AGM held on June 24, 2024, declare a final dividend of HKD 11 cents per ordinary share for the year ended 31 December 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 19
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 June 2024. Payment date: 16 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 7.1%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.1%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 07
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 24% to HK$2.35. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.93, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 27%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 7.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 2.3% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 22
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to HK$2.23, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 44% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$1.94 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to HK$1.87, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$1.99 per share. Reported Earnings • Apr 24
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.65 (down from CN¥0.91 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥56.4b (down 1.9% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥2.30b (down 27% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.1% (down from 5.5% in FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 29%. Revenue is expected to decline by 7.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 5.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 32% per year. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 24
VP & Executive Director recently bought HK$228k worth of stock On the 23rd of April, Hancheng Zhou bought around 150k shares on-market at roughly HK$1.52 per share. This transaction amounted to 43% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought HK$1.2m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 15
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 25% to HK$1.56. The fair value is estimated to be HK$2.03, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 27%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 7.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 1.0% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Apr 09
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Apr 04
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 22, 2024 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 22, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Apr 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 37% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥51.1b to CN¥48.4b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.906 per share to CN¥0.572 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 12% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Hong Kong . Consensus price target down from HK$3.97 to HK$2.80. Share price fell 6.5% to HK$1.74 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 27
Price target decreased by 15% to HK$3.38 Down from HK$3.97, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 94% above last closing price of HK$1.74. Stock is down 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.57 for next year compared to CN¥0.65 last year. Declared Dividend • Mar 27
Final dividend of HK$0.11 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of HK$0.11. Ex-date: 26th June 2024 Payment date: 16th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 9.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (7% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 19% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Mar 26
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024, at 10:00 China Standard Time. Reported Earnings • Mar 26
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.65 (down from CN¥0.91 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥56.4b (down 1.9% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥2.30b (down 27% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.1% (down from 5.5% in FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 29%. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 6.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year. Price Target Changed • Feb 02
Price target decreased by 7.8% to HK$4.10 Down from HK$4.45, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 137% above last closing price of HK$1.73. Stock is down 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.93 for next year compared to CN¥0.91 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 05
VP & Executive Director recently bought HK$708k worth of stock On the 4th of January, Hancheng Zhou bought around 350k shares on-market at roughly HK$2.02 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought HK$980k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Buying Opportunity • Dec 13
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 33%. The fair value is estimated to be HK$2.86, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 12%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.1% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 48% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Sep 30
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 19, 2023 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 19, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 11
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.05 per share at 5.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 18 September 2023. Payment date: 18 October 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 5.8%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.7%). In line with average of industry peers (5.3%).