Meridian Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Meridian Energy's revenue is forecast to decline at 2.3% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 27.2% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 27.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.7% in 3 years.

Key information

27.2%

Earnings growth rate

27.43%

EPS growth rate

Renewable Energy earnings growth	16.0%
Revenue growth rate	-2.3%
Future return on equity	6.69%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	06 Aug 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

Jun 18

Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL)

Oct 16

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Oct 07

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NZSE:MEL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (NZD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2028	4,676	532	N/A	N/A	2
6/30/2027	4,971	466	N/A	N/A	3
6/30/2026	4,890	422	N/A	N/A	3
6/30/2025	4,702	88	N/A	N/A	3
12/31/2024	5,000	117	124	414	N/A
9/30/2024	4,928	273	235	541	N/A
6/30/2024	4,856	429	346	667	N/A
3/31/2024	4,360	257	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2023	3,863	85	207	547	N/A
9/30/2023	3,543	90	194	528	N/A
6/30/2023	3,222	95	180	509	N/A
3/31/2023	3,398	301	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2022	3,574	507	280	501	N/A
9/30/2022	3,675	479	285	481	N/A
6/30/2022	3,776	451	289	461	N/A
12/31/2021	3,945	333	302	469	N/A
9/30/2021	3,954	374	310	450	N/A
6/30/2021	3,963	415	317	431	N/A
3/31/2021	3,716	320	387	479	N/A
12/31/2020	3,315	211	456	526	N/A
9/30/2020	3,360	193	500	566	N/A
6/30/2020	3,405	175	543	605	N/A
3/31/2020	3,493	277	557	622	N/A
12/31/2019	3,580	378	571	639	N/A
9/30/2019	3,536	359	569	637	N/A
6/30/2019	3,491	339	566	635	N/A
3/31/2019	3,252	292	516	581	N/A
12/31/2018	3,012	244	465	527	N/A
9/30/2018	2,887	223	N/A	477	N/A
6/30/2018	2,762	201	N/A	427	N/A
3/31/2018	2,696	193	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2017	2,630	184	N/A	429	N/A
9/30/2017	2,475	192	N/A	450	N/A
6/30/2017	2,320	200	N/A	470	N/A
3/31/2017	2,306	203	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2016	2,292	206	N/A	449	N/A
9/30/2016	2,334	196	N/A	451	N/A
6/30/2016	2,375	185	N/A	452	N/A
3/31/2016	2,330	210	N/A	441	N/A
12/31/2015	2,284	234	N/A	429	N/A
9/30/2015	2,344	241	N/A	435	N/A
6/30/2015	2,403	247	N/A	440	N/A
3/31/2015	2,574	239	N/A	449	N/A
12/31/2014	2,744	230	N/A	459	N/A
9/30/2014	2,627	230	N/A	446	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MEL's forecast earnings growth (27.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: MEL's earnings (27.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (21.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MEL's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MEL's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-2.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MEL's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.3% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MEL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/08/25 19:17
End of Day Share Price	2025/08/25 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Meridian Energy Limited is covered by 13 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Nevill Gluyas	Credit Suisse
Grant Swanepoel	Deutsche Bank
Bruce McKay	Edison Investment Research

Meridian Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 835%, revenue downgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 49%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 24%, revenue upgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36%, revenue upgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%, revenue upgraded

Recent updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 835%, revenue downgraded

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 21, 2025

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 49%

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Aug 27, 2025

Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

Returns On Capital At Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Paint A Concerning Picture

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22%

Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) agreed to acquire branded electricity customers, hedge book and brand of Flick Energy Limited.

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 24%, revenue upgraded

Does Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Solid Earnings Reflect Meridian Energy's (NZSE:MEL) Strength As A Business

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36%, revenue upgraded

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

First half 2025 earnings released: NZ$0.047 loss per share (vs NZ$0.074 profit in 1H 2024)

Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire remaining 80.01% stake in NZ Windfarms Limited (NZSE:NWF) from Salt Funds Management Limited and Robert Stone for NZD 72.7 million.

Are Investors Undervaluing Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) By 49%?

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%, revenue upgraded

There's Reason For Concern Over Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Price

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Feb 26, 2025

Sustainable Growth On The Horizon From Innovative Energy Solutions

Capital Allocation Trends At Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Aren't Ideal

Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL)

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12%

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21%, revenue upgraded

Final dividend increased to NZ$0.17

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Meridian Energy Limited Declares Partially Imputed Final Ordinary Dividend for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2024, Payable on 20 September 2024

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 15, 2024

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 28, 2024

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

Price target increased by 7.2% to NZ$5.84

First half dividend of NZ$0.07 announced

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on March 26, 2024

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Feb 28, 2024

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Final Ordinary Dividend for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2023, Payable on September 22, 2023

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 12, 2023

Meridian Energy Limited Appoints David Carter as A Non-Executive Director with Effect from 25 July 2023

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Aug 29, 2023

Chief People Officer recently sold NZ$538k worth of stock

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: NZ$0.078 (vs NZ$0.056 in 1H 2022)

Meridian Energy Limited Announces the Appointment of Benjamin Bateman as Director , Effective 28 February 2023

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Mar 01, 2023

High number of new directors

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought NZ$102k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of NZ$0.13 per share

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Ordinary Fully Paid Foreign Exempt NZX Dividend for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2022, Payable on September 23, 2022

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 18, 2022

High number of new directors

Meridian Energy Limited Appoints Graham Cockroft as A Non-Executive Director with Effect from 26 July 2022

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Aug 24, 2022

Meridian Makes Two Appointments to Executive Team

Upcoming dividend of NZ$0.067 per share

First half 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 28%

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Dividend on MEZ - Ordinary Fully Paid Foreign Exempt NZX for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2021, Payable on April 8, 2022

Shell Energy Operations Pty Ltd and Infrastructure Capital Group Ltd completed the acquisition of Meridian Energy Australia Pty. Ltd. from Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) for AUD 740 million.

Chief People Officer Tania Palmer has left the company

Insider recently sold NZ$233k worth of stock

Shell Energy Operations Pty Ltd and Infrastructure Capital Group Ltd agreed to acquire Australian Business Of Meridian Energy Limited from Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) for approximately AUD 730 million.