Orica Limited

ASX:ORI Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$8.2b

Orica Valuation

Is ORI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$35.55
Fair Value
52.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ORI (A$16.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$35.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORI?

Key metric: As ORI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ORI. This is calculated by dividing ORI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ORI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.7x
EarningsAU$524.60m
Market CapAU$8.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.2x
BSL BlueScope Steel
10.7x8.1%AU$8.3b
MIN Mineral Resources
55.8x40.1%AU$6.8b
SDV SciDev
45.4x36.9%AU$100.6m
EVN Evolution Mining
25x10.3%AU$10.4b
ORI Orica
15.7x8.3%AU$8.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the peer average (34.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Chemicals Industry?

31 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ORI 15.7xIndustry Avg. 20.4xNo. of Companies183PE01632486480+
31 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the Global Chemicals industry average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.7x
Fair PE Ratio15.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ORI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$16.89
AU$20.63
+22.1%
7.1%AU$23.00AU$17.50n/a14
Jan ’26AU$16.58
AU$20.63
+24.4%
7.1%AU$23.00AU$17.50n/a14
Dec ’25AU$18.11
AU$20.61
+13.8%
7.1%AU$23.00AU$17.50n/a14
Nov ’25AU$17.23
AU$20.18
+17.1%
6.2%AU$22.00AU$17.50n/a14
Oct ’25AU$18.02
AU$20.20
+12.1%
6.0%AU$22.00AU$17.50n/a14
Sep ’25AU$17.76
AU$20.19
+13.7%
6.5%AU$22.00AU$17.00n/a14
Aug ’25AU$18.12
AU$20.14
+11.1%
6.4%AU$22.00AU$17.00n/a14
Jul ’25AU$17.67
AU$20.14
+14.0%
6.4%AU$22.00AU$17.00n/a14
Jun ’25AU$18.32
AU$20.14
+9.9%
6.4%AU$22.00AU$17.00n/a14
May ’25AU$17.94
AU$18.38
+2.4%
10.4%AU$20.01AU$12.50n/a13
Apr ’25AU$18.26
AU$18.42
+0.9%
6.8%AU$21.50AU$16.50n/a12
Mar ’25AU$16.95
AU$18.42
+8.7%
6.8%AU$21.50AU$16.50n/a12
Feb ’25AU$16.16
AU$18.15
+12.3%
6.4%AU$20.00AU$16.50n/a13
Jan ’25AU$15.94
AU$18.15
+13.9%
6.4%AU$20.00AU$16.50AU$16.5813
Dec ’24AU$15.59
AU$17.74
+13.8%
8.6%AU$20.00AU$13.86AU$18.1115
Nov ’24AU$14.45
AU$17.61
+21.8%
8.3%AU$19.85AU$13.86AU$17.2314
Oct ’24AU$15.59
AU$17.67
+13.3%
8.1%AU$19.85AU$13.86AU$18.0214
Sep ’24AU$15.55
AU$17.61
+13.3%
9.0%AU$20.30AU$13.86AU$17.7615
Aug ’24AU$15.81
AU$17.54
+10.9%
9.4%AU$20.30AU$13.86AU$18.1214
Jul ’24AU$14.83
AU$17.51
+18.1%
9.4%AU$20.30AU$13.86AU$17.6714
Jun ’24AU$15.23
AU$17.51
+15.0%
9.4%AU$20.30AU$13.86AU$18.3214
May ’24AU$16.39
AU$16.56
+1.0%
7.4%AU$18.70AU$14.55AU$17.9413
Apr ’24AU$15.39
AU$16.48
+7.1%
7.4%AU$18.70AU$14.55AU$18.2613
Mar ’24AU$16.27
AU$16.47
+1.2%
7.2%AU$18.50AU$14.55AU$16.9513
Feb ’24AU$14.80
AU$16.47
+11.3%
7.2%AU$18.50AU$14.55AU$16.1613
Jan ’24AU$15.06
AU$16.47
+9.3%
7.2%AU$18.50AU$14.55AU$15.9413
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
AU$20.63
Fair Value
18.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/14 07:40
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/14 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Orica Limited is covered by 31 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dennis HulmeAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Brook Campbell-CrawfordBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited