United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Overview
A package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 4/6 |
UPS Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 434 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$95.21
FV
14.0% overvalued intrinsic discount1.75%
Revenue growth p.a.
3.9k
users have viewed this narrative11users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
45users have followed this narrative
United Parcel Service, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$108.54 |
| 52 Week High | US$122.41 |
| 52 Week Low | US$82.00 |
| Beta | 1.04 |
| 1 Month Change | 7.70% |
| 3 Month Change | 7.55% |
| 1 Year Change | 9.29% |
| 3 Year Change | -36.71% |
| 5 Year Change | -46.02% |
| Change since IPO | 59.32% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
UPS: Margin Headwinds And Facility Closures Will Pressure Earnings Trajectory
Analysts trimmed the UPS fair value estimate by about $1.88 to $82.69. This reflects a mix of recent target cuts and raises as they factor in revised growth, margin expectations, and a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple.Seeking Alpha • Jun 05
UPS: The Transformation Has Landed - Buy Before The Market Notices
Summary United Parcel Service remains a Buy as transformation accelerates, with Amazon exit risks largely resolved and healthcare logistics momentum building. Q2 2026 is a key inflection point; post-transition margin expansion and volume growth should drive upward earnings revisions and potential rerating. Automation and mix improvements are structurally lowering costs, with automated facilities now handling 67.5% of US volume and delivering a 28% cost-per-piece advantage. UPS's valuation at ~9.3x EV/EBITDA is fair, but double-digit total returns are likely through 2026–2027, supported by a ~6% income yield and margin expansion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 23
UPS: Heavy Asset Network Will Support 2026 Outlook Despite Near Term Earnings Pressure
Narrative Update The analyst price target for United Parcel Service has been adjusted slightly lower to reflect a modest $0.26 reduction in fair value, as analysts balance recent target cuts tied to near term earnings pressure with higher targets that emphasize the long lived value of the company's global delivery network and physical infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on United Parcel Service reflects a split view, with some firms trimming price targets on near term earnings pressure and others marking targets higher on the value of the physical network and long term positioning.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
UPS: Margin Headwinds And Facility Closures Will Pressure Earnings Trajectory
Analysts trimmed the UPS fair value estimate by about $1.88 to $82.69. This reflects a mix of recent target cuts and raises as they factor in revised growth, margin expectations, and a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple.Seeking Alpha • Jun 05
UPS: The Transformation Has Landed - Buy Before The Market Notices
Summary United Parcel Service remains a Buy as transformation accelerates, with Amazon exit risks largely resolved and healthcare logistics momentum building. Q2 2026 is a key inflection point; post-transition margin expansion and volume growth should drive upward earnings revisions and potential rerating. Automation and mix improvements are structurally lowering costs, with automated facilities now handling 67.5% of US volume and delivering a 28% cost-per-piece advantage. UPS's valuation at ~9.3x EV/EBITDA is fair, but double-digit total returns are likely through 2026–2027, supported by a ~6% income yield and margin expansion. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 23
UPS: Heavy Asset Network Will Support 2026 Outlook Despite Near Term Earnings Pressure
Narrative Update The analyst price target for United Parcel Service has been adjusted slightly lower to reflect a modest $0.26 reduction in fair value, as analysts balance recent target cuts tied to near term earnings pressure with higher targets that emphasize the long lived value of the company's global delivery network and physical infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on United Parcel Service reflects a split view, with some firms trimming price targets on near term earnings pressure and others marking targets higher on the value of the physical network and long term positioning.Analysis Article • May 05
There May Be Reason For Hope In United Parcel Service's (NYSE:UPS) Disappointing Earnings
The market for United Parcel Service, Inc.'s ( NYSE:UPS ) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings...Narrative Update • May 03
UPS: Heavy Asset Network And 2026 Framework Balance Long Term Potential
Analysts made a modest upward adjustment to the UPS fair value estimate to about $113.15, reflecting a mix of recent price target increases and trims as they factor in updated revenue growth, margin expectations, and slightly lower assumed future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on United Parcel Service shows a mix of modest target cuts and small upward revisions, which largely offset each other and line up with the fair value estimate adjustment to about $113.15.
Narrative Update • Apr 18
UPS: Physical Network Strength Will Support Earnings Recovery Beyond Near Term Pressure
Analysts have adjusted the fair value estimate for United Parcel Service to $135 from $122, reflecting updated views on the company as research commentary highlights both increased optimism around its physical network assets and ongoing caution about near term earnings pressure. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on United Parcel Service shows a mix of caution on near term earnings and growing interest in the company’s long term asset base and execution plans.Narrative Update • Apr 04
UPS: Heavy Asset Network And 2026 Inflection Will Drive Upside Potential
Analysts have made only modest tweaks to their UPS outlook, trimming the average price target by a few dollars to about $113. Near term earnings pressure, highlighted by more cautious firms, is balanced by others who see long term value in UPS's heavy asset network and multi year earnings potential.Narrative Update • Mar 21
UPS: Union Pushback And Job Cuts Will Pressure Earnings Trajectory
Analysts have trimmed the UPS fair value estimate by about $0.50, while modestly adjusting assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E. This reflects mixed Street signals that include a recent $6 cut to a $112 price target at BofA, alongside a series of upward revisions from other firms citing the resilience of physical transport networks.Narrative Update • Mar 07
UPS: Network Assets And 2026 Framework Will Shape Risk Reward Balance
Our updated UPS narrative reflects a slight trim in the fair value estimate to about $113 per share, as analysts weigh a mix of new price targets that range from BofA's cut to $112 on softer near term expectations to multiple upward revisions tied to UPS's physical network assets and its commentary on the 2026 outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research on United Parcel Service shows a split tape, with some analysts trimming near term expectations while others are leaning into the long term value of the network and management's 2026 framework.Narrative Update • Feb 20
UPS: Labor Disputes And Fleet Disruptions Will Pressure Margins And Sentiment
The analyst fair value estimate for United Parcel Service has been lifted from about $80.28 to roughly $85.08 as analysts factor in higher revenue growth assumptions, slightly stronger profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by a wave of recent price target increases and upgrades across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on United Parcel Service shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they refine outlooks for earnings, margins, and sector conditions through 2026.Analysis Article • Feb 09
United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $1.64
United Parcel Service, Inc. ( NYSE:UPS ) will pay a dividend of $1.64 on the 5th of March. This makes the dividend...Narrative Update • Feb 06
UPS: MD-11 Grounding And Margin Execution Will Shape Medium-Term Outlook
Analysts have lifted their UPS fair value estimate from US$100.50 to about US$113.18. This reflects updated expectations for revenue growth, margin trends, and future P/E multiples, as seen in a wave of recent price target increases across the Street.Narrative Update • Jan 23
UPS: Rising Cost And Safety Pressures Will Challenge Recent Margin Optimism
Narrative Update: United Parcel Service (UPS) The analyst price target for UPS has been revised slightly higher to reflect an updated fair value estimate of about $80 per share. Analysts point to recent price target increases across several firms, improving margin expectations and cost initiatives, while also factoring in more conservative revenue growth and a higher future P/E assumption.Narrative Update • Jan 09
UPS: Rally Risks Ahead As Amazon Volume Decline And Cost Execution Concerns Build
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for United Parcel Service higher to align with recent Street price target increases in the US$105 to US$126 range, citing updated views on revenue growth, margins, and 2026 sector conditions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on United Parcel Service reflects a mixed tone, with several firms lifting price targets into a tighter US$105 to US$126 band while at least one is stepping back on rating and others highlighting execution and growth risks into 2026.Narrative Update • Dec 26
UPS: Cost Efficiencies And Yield Improvements Will Support Earnings Recovery Ahead
Analysts nudged their average price target for United Parcel Service modestly higher to about $119, reflecting confidence that solid Q3 execution, ongoing cost takeouts, and improved domestic yield performance can support resilient margins and a cyclical earnings trough in 2025. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts framed the Q3 beat and reinstated guidance as an important inflection point, arguing that the combination of structural cost reductions and better pricing power is starting to flow more visibly into earnings.Narrative Update • Dec 12
UPS: Margin And Cost Efficiencies Will Drive Earnings Recovery Ahead
The updated fair value estimate for United Parcel Service has been reduced by about $10 to $122 per share, as analysts temper revenue growth and valuation multiples, despite acknowledging improving margins, cost efficiencies, and a more credible transformation outlook following a solid Q3 earnings beat and higher Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have responded positively to the latest Q3 results, citing a solid earnings beat, reinstated guidance, and meaningful progress on cost initiatives as support for higher valuation.Analysis Article • Oct 31
United Parcel Service, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 21%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
United Parcel Service, Inc. ( NYSE:UPS ) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. It was...Analysis Article • Oct 21
Weekly Picks: 💻 A Hedge Against US Government Shutdown And 2 More Picks
This week’s picks cover: How UPS plans to cut costs and automate its way back to profitability, why Paradigm Biopharma could soar if its osteoarthritis drug wins FDA approval, and how Barrick Mining offers a hedge against U.S. fiscal chaosNarrative Update • Oct 18
Amazon Shipments Will Decline And Automation Will Secure Future Efficiency
Analysts have lowered their price target for United Parcel Service, reducing it from approximately $101.43 to $100.50 per share. They cited persistent cost pressures and a cautious outlook for freight demand stabilization.
New Narrative • Oct 17
Finding The True Value Of A Logistics Powerhouse
Our initial price target for United Parcel Service is set at $95.21. We believe in a cautious approach in our analysis as UPS has been clouded with sustainability issues, higher costs, and internal headwinds.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Amazon Shipments Will Decline And Automation Will Secure Future Efficiency
The analyst price target for United Parcel Service was reduced to approximately $101.43 from $103.30, as analysts cited sustained cost pressures, weaker volume trends, and ongoing macroeconomic and regulatory challenges. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broad reassessment of United Parcel Service's outlook as analysts evaluate both the company's near-term challenges and longer-term positioning.Narrative Update • Sep 19
Amazon Shipments Will Decline And Automation Will Secure Future Efficiency
Analysts have modestly reduced United Parcel Service’s price target to $103.30 due to immediate volume declines from new import restrictions, persistent cost headwinds, and weak small-business and Amazon volumes, partially offset by longer-term confidence in its core franchise. Analyst Commentary Recent executive orders suspending de minimis access for U.S. imports have caused an immediate fall in shipment volumes, leading to near-term volume and cost pressures.Analysis Article • Jul 31
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$106 Price Target
There's been a notable change in appetite for United Parcel Service, Inc. ( NYSE:UPS ) shares in the week since its...Analysis Article • Jun 24
United Parcel Service's (NYSE:UPS) Returns Have Hit A Wall
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Apr 22
UPS: Recession Risk Might Already Be Reflected In The Stock Price
Summary UPS is currently undervalued, trading below its intrinsic value, making it a "Buy" despite potential short-term declines due to recession risks. Fourth-quarter results showed growth, but full-year 2024 results were disappointing, with a slight revenue increase and declines in operating profit and EPS. UPS's dividend yield is attractive at nearly 7%, but the high payout ratio raises concerns about its sustainability in the long term. Long-term growth potential exists through international expansion and healthcare logistics, but near-term economic uncertainties may impact performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNew Narrative • Apr 08
Network Reconfiguration And Healthcare Expansion Will Drive Efficiency
UPS's efficiency initiatives and network reconfiguration are expected to drive significant cost savings, expanding margins and improving earnings.Seeking Alpha • Mar 11
UPS: The Company Is Being Hit From Multiple Angles
Summary Distinguishing between short-term trends and long-term patterns is challenging, especially post-Covid-19 as industries return to pre-pandemic growth cycles. The mail delivery industry, including UPS, saw significant revenue increases due to the e-commerce boom during the Covid-19 lockdowns. UPS plans to invest $3.5 billion this year in AI and technology to drive long-term margins down, despite higher labor costs. UPS has implemented a 5.9% price increase, raising questions about whether competitors will follow suit. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 13
UPS Cuts Amazon Deal: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain
Summary UPS's decision to cut Amazon's volume by 50% by mid-2026 is a strategic move to enhance profitability and focus on higher-margin business. Though short-term revenue will dip, UPS expects significant margin expansion, targeting a 12% U.S. operating margin by Q4 2026. Strategic cost reductions, including facility closures and network resizing, will align UPS's operations with its new business mix. UPS aims to grow in high-margin areas like SMBs and healthcare logistics, projecting substantial market share gains and revenue growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 06
UPS: One Of The Easiest Shorts In 2025
Summary I believe the stock is in a tailspin and its downward momentum will not slow down in 2025, despite the aggressive pivot toward higher margin logistics customers (SMB, B2B, healthcare). I anticipate that cost-cutting measures, including the $1 billion in savings, the layoffs, and facility consolidations will improve margins in the long-term but won’t reverse investor sentiment within 12 months. I caution that any hype from potential humanoid deployments could lift sentiment, but I don’t expect such announcements before EoY, considering the company's cost-cutting plans and its Union. I maintain a strong sell rating for UPS, expecting the share price to test the $85 level before the end of the year. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 30
Wall Street Lunch: GDP Falls Short Of Consensus
Summary U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.1% in Q4, with consumer and government spending offset by a decline in investment and rising inflation. UPS reached a deal with Amazon to reduce volume by over 50% by 2026, potentially benefiting UPS's margins. Comcast saw declines in broadband and video subscribers, overshadowing its dividend increase and new $15 billion stock buyback program. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 24
UPS Looks To Be Nearing Turnaround Territory
Summary United Parcel Service, Inc. has struggled with revenue and profit declines, underperforming the S&P 500, but UPS stock is nearing a potential “buy” range. Despite recent challenges, UPS' U.S. Domestic Package segment shows signs of improvement, driven by increased e-commerce activity and higher business-to-consumer volumes. The International Package segment and Supply Chain Solutions have mixed results, with the latter showing growth due to the MNX Global Logistics acquisition. While UPS may see a turnaround, FedEx currently presents a more compelling investment opportunity, with better valuation and growth prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 24
UPS: The Whole Package For Value Investors
Summary UPS, a global leader in small-parcel delivery, leverages scale and network advantages for higher margins and efficiency, presenting a unique value investment opportunity. Recent automation and consolidation initiatives have boosted productivity, with Q3 results showing revenue and profit growth, despite negative investor sentiment due to inflation and tariff concerns. UPS's acquisition of Estafeta and investments in healthcare logistics strengthen its competitive moat, with significant future revenue and profit growth potential. With a strong balance sheet, undervalued stock, and a dividend yield over 5%, UPS has many characteristics value investors appreciate, while analysts expect ~$10 in EPS by 2026. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 15
UPS Is An Excellent Company
Summary UPS has shown strong earnings and revenue growth, with a P/E ratio under 20 and double-digit YoY EPS growth, indicating a low valuation. The company is enhancing its logistics, particularly in healthcare, leveraging its scale to provide premium services and boost shareholder returns. UPS generates robust cash flow, supporting a nearly 5% dividend yield, though its payout ratio is around 100% based on a 5% FCF yield, limiting share repurchases. The main risk is limited growth opportunities in an established industry, with potential threats from companies like Amazon building their own logistics networks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 15
UPS: How I'm Grabbing More Yield
Summary UPS is in my dividend stock portfolio, and carries a nearly 5% yield. This article details my investment process, as UPS is a typical case of how to get the yield and total return I aim for, tactical management is helpful. I discuss how I navigate this and the other stocks I follow, using a combination of charting and known events (ex-date and earnings date), as well as proprietary factors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| UPS | US Logistics | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -0.4% | -0.8% | -2.5% |
| 1Y | 9.3% | 29.3% | 22.7% |
Return vs Industry: UPS underperformed the US Logistics industry which returned 29.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: UPS underperformed the US Market which returned 22.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| UPS volatility | |
|---|---|
| UPS Average Weekly Movement | 4.6% |
| Logistics Industry Average Movement | 7.5% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: UPS has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: UPS's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1907 | 350,625 | Carol Tome | www.ups.com |
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package.
United Parcel Service, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| UPS fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$92.26b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$5.25b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$88.32b |
17.6x
P/E Ratio1.0x
P/S RatioIs UPS overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| UPS income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$88.32b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$68.49b |
| Gross Profit | US$19.83b |
| Other Expenses | US$14.58b |
| Earnings | US$5.25b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 6.18 |
| Gross Margin | 22.45% |
| Net Profit Margin | 5.94% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 147.6% |
How did UPS perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
6.0%
Current Dividend Yield106%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/08 03:54 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
United Parcel Service, Inc. is covered by 41 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Will Chien | Accountability Research Corporation |
| John Eade | Argus Research Company |
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |