NSK Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
NSK is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 19% and 5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.7% in 3 years.
Key information
19.0%
Earnings growth rate
19.26%
EPS growth rate
| Machinery earnings growth | 10.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.0% |
| Future return on equity | 6.71% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 25
6471: Planned NTN Integration And AI Collaboration Will Support Medium Term Re Rating Potential
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for NSK slightly, with the price target moving from ¥1,356.67 to ¥1,373.33 as they incorporate updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What’s in the News for NSK NSK and NTN Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding on May 12, 2026 for a business integration through the establishment of a joint holding company via share transfer.Analysis Article • Jun 16
NSK (TSE:6471) Stock Could Be 13% Undervalued After Strong 1 Year Gains
NSK (TSE:6471) has drawn fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock down around 2% over the past month and roughly 3% over the past 3 months, against strong 1 year gains. See our latest analysis for NSK. At the current share price of ¥1,183.5, NSK’s recent 1 day share price return declined 1.87%, while the 7 day share price return gained 2.96%, and the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 92.30%. This indicates notable long term momentum alongside some short term...Narrative Update • Jun 09
6471: Planned NTN Share Transfer Will Support Medium Term Re Rating Potential
Analysts now see NSK's fair value nudging from ¥1,363.33 to ¥1,356.67, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, while keeping the overall view on the stock broadly intact. What's in the News NSK issued consolidated earnings guidance for the six months ending 30 September 2026, with expected sales of ¥490,000 million, operating income of ¥18,000 million, net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥9,500 million, and basic earnings per share of ¥19.41.Narrative Update • May 26
6471: AI Integration And Planned Business Combination Will Support Balanced Medium Term Re Rating Potential
Analysts have raised NSK's price target from ¥1,293 to ¥1,363, citing updated fair value work that incorporates a modestly higher profit margin outlook and slightly revised assumptions for revenue growth, discount rate, and future P/E. What's in the News NSK issued consolidated earnings guidance for the six months ending September 30, 2026, with expected sales of ¥490,000 million, operating income of ¥18,000 million, net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥9,500 million, and basic earnings per share of ¥19.41.Narrative Update • May 04
6471: AI Partnership And Revised Guidance Will Support Balanced Medium Term Re Rating Potential
Analysts have kept NSK's fair value estimate unchanged at ¥1,293. They have only made small technical adjustments to inputs such as the discount rate and assumed future P/E, reflecting fine tuning rather than a shift in their overall view.Narrative Update • Apr 20
6471: Weaker Yen And Upgraded Guidance Will Support Balanced Re Rating Potential
Analysts have left their fair value estimate for NSK steady at ¥1,293.33 per share, with only minor tweaks to inputs like the discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E to reflect updated modelling assumptions rather than a change in overall view. What's in the News NSK raised consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending March 31, 2026, with expected sales of ¥900,000m, compared with previous guidance of ¥885,000m.Narrative Update • Apr 06
6471: Weaker Yen And Upgraded Guidance Will Support Re Rating Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on NSK to ¥1,293 from ¥1,273, reflecting refreshed assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that together point to a slightly higher valuation anchor for the shares. What's in the News NSK raised its consolidated sales guidance for the year ending March 31, 2026 to ¥900,000 million from ¥885,000 million, reflecting updated assumptions and recent business performance.Narrative Update • Mar 23
6471: Weaker Yen And Higher Guidance Will Likely Keep Multiples Contained
Analysts now set their price target for NSK at about ¥1,273, up from ¥1,165. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Mar 09
6471: Weaker Yen And Higher Earnings Guidance Will Still Likely Compress Multiple
Analysts have raised their price target on NSK from ¥1,080 to ¥1,165, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, a slightly lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News NSK revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending March 31, 2026, with expected sales of ¥900,000m compared with the previous guidance of ¥885,000m.Narrative Update • Feb 22
6471: Higher Earnings Guidance Will Still Likely Leave Multiple Under Pressure
Analysts have revised their price target for NSK to ¥1,080 from ¥941.67, citing updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that together point to a higher assessed fair value for the shares. What's in the News NSK revised its consolidated sales guidance for the year ending March 31, 2026 to ¥900,000 million, compared with its previous guidance of ¥885,000 million (company guidance).
New Narrative • Feb 18
Full Steering Consolidation And Robotics Exposure Will Reshape Long Term Earnings Power
Catalysts About NSK NSK is a Japan based manufacturer of bearings, automotive components and precision machinery products, including steering systems. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analysis Article • Feb 10
Solid Earnings Reflect NSK's (TSE:6471) Strength As A Business
When companies post strong earnings, the stock generally performs well, just like NSK Ltd.'s ( TSE:6471 ) stock has...Analysis Article • Feb 09
NSK (TSE:6471) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥17.00
The board of NSK Ltd. ( TSE:6471 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥17.00 per share on the 8th of June...Narrative Update • Feb 07
6471: Lower Discount Rate And Modest Margins Will Likely Still Restrain Multiple
Analysts have lifted their price target on NSK from ¥848.33 to ¥941.67, citing updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and forward P/E, which they view as better reflecting the company’s current risk and earnings profile. Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was raised from ¥848.33 to ¥941.67, implying a higher assessed equity value per share based on the updated model inputs.
New Narrative • Feb 04
Steering Consolidation And EV Exposure Will Constrain Margins And Limit Long Term Upside
Catalysts About NSK NSK is a global manufacturer of bearings, automotive components and precision machinery products, including a consolidated Steering Business segment. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Jan 24
6471: Upgraded Guidance And Yen Tailwind Will Likely Still Fail To Support Multiple
Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for NSK broadly steady around ¥848 per share. A slightly lower discount rate and marginally adjusted future P/E assumptions reflect fine tuning of their models rather than a major shift in view.Narrative Update • Jan 10
6471: Upgraded Guidance And Yen Tailwind Will Likely Fail To Justify Multiple
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for NSK at ¥848. A slightly lower discount rate and a marginally adjusted future P/E input support this unchanged price target, which reflects broadly consistent expectations for revenue growth and profit margins.Narrative Update • Dec 24
6471: Higher Earnings Guidance Will Likely Fail To Justify Richer Multiple
Analysts have raised their price target on NSK by approximately ¥45 per share to about ¥848, citing expectations for stronger revenue growth, modestly higher profit margins, and a slightly lower future price to earnings multiple that together support a higher fair value estimate. What's in the News Raised full year 2026 consolidated sales guidance to JPY 885,000 million from JPY 760,000 million, reflecting stronger than expected demand and favorable currency effects (company guidance) Increased operating income forecast to JPY 30,000 million from JPY 22,000 million, supported by fixed cost control and expense discipline (company guidance) More than doubled projected net income attributable to owners of the parent to JPY 16,000 million from JPY 7,000 million, lifting expected basic EPS to JPY 32.71 from JPY 14.32 (company guidance) Completed acquisition of all shares of NSK Steering & Control Co. Ltd., turning it and its subsidiaries into consolidated subsidiaries and recognizing a gain on bargain purchase of JPY 7,272 million and a loss on step acquisition of JPY 4,662 million (company guidance) Management cites robust automotive production and Chinese subsidy driven demand in the first half, but notes ongoing sluggish demand in Europe and a stagnant Chinese economy in the second half outlook (company guidance) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate increased modestly from approximately ¥803 per share to about ¥848 per share, reflecting stronger expected fundamentals despite a slightly lower valuation multiple.Narrative Update • Dec 10
6471: Richer Multiple Will Likely Constrain Returns Despite Earnings Guidance Upgrade
Analysts have raised their price target on NSK by approximately 6 percent to around ¥800. This change reflects slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth, modestly higher profit margins, and a marginally lower discount rate, which together support a higher fair value multiple.Analysis Article • Dec 05
NSK's (TSE:6471) Dividend Will Be ¥17.00
NSK Ltd.'s ( TSE:6471 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥17.00 per share on 8th of June. This means the...Narrative Update • Nov 26
6471: Higher Discount Rate And Margins Will Limit Future Earnings Upside
Analysts have revised NSK's price target upward to ¥758.33 per share, reflecting updated modeling assumptions and outlooks on key financial factors. What's in the News NSK Ltd.Narrative Update • Nov 11
6471: Higher Costs And Margin Declines Will Pressure Future Earnings
Analysts have raised their price target for NSK from ¥717.50 to ¥758.33. They cited slightly improved revenue growth prospects and a modestly higher discount rate as key factors in their updated evaluation.Analysis Article • Sep 23
NSK (TSE:6471) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of ¥17.00
NSK Ltd. ( TSE:6471 ) will pay a dividend of ¥17.00 on the 3rd of December. This means the annual payment is 4.3% of...Analysis Article • Sep 11
Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In NSK Ltd. (TSE:6471)
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33.4x NSK Ltd. ( TSE:6471 ) may be sending very bearish signals at the...Narrative Update • Aug 28
Focus On Electrification And High-Value Products Will Diversify Future Sales Portfolio
The modest upward revision in NSK’s price target reflects stable valuation metrics, with both future P/E and net profit margin essentially unchanged, resulting in a new consensus fair value of ¥699. Valuation Changes Summary of Valuation Changes for NSK The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from ¥675 to ¥699.Analysis Article • Aug 20
NSK (TSE:6471) Has Announced A Dividend Of ¥17.00
NSK Ltd. ( TSE:6471 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥17.00 per share on the 3rd of December. Based on...Analysis Article • Jul 21
NSK (TSE:6471) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of ¥17.00
NSK Ltd.'s ( TSE:6471 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥17.00 per share on 3rd of December. This means the...Analysis Article • Mar 28
NSK (TSE:6471) Could Be Struggling To Allocate Capital
To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications...Analysis Article • Mar 07
An Intrinsic Calculation For NSK Ltd. (TSE:6471) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued
Key Insights NSK's estimated fair value is JP¥993 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity NSK's JP¥652 share price...
New Narrative • Feb 10
Focus On Electrification And High-Value Products Will Diversify Future Sales Portfolio
Expansion in industrial machinery and electrification-focused automotive products aims to boost revenue and diversifies NSK's sales portfolio.Analysis Article • Jan 09
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By NSK Ltd.'s (TSE:6471) P/E
When close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 13x, you may consider NSK...Analysis Article • Nov 27
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of NSK Ltd. (TSE:6471)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, NSK fair value estimate is JP¥697 NSK's JP¥651 share price...Analysis Article • Oct 03
NSK (TSE:6471) Will Be Hoping To Turn Its Returns On Capital Around
To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications...Analysis Article • Jul 27
We Think NSK (TSE:6471) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...Analysis Article • May 09
An Intrinsic Calculation For NSK Ltd. (TSE:6471) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for NSK is JP¥1,170 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity NSK's JP¥869 share...Analysis Article • Apr 24
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, NSK (TSE:6471) Presents An Opportunity
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Mar 02
NSK (TSE:6471) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥15.00
NSK Ltd.'s ( TSE:6471 ) investors are due to receive a payment of ¥15.00 per share on 7th of June. The dividend yield...Analysis Article • Feb 26
Some Investors May Be Worried About NSK's (TSE:6471) Returns On Capital
When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2029 | 1,097,520 | 49,760 | 40,200 | 99,200 | 5 |
| 3/31/2028 | 1,058,300 | 39,250 | 35,100 | 97,575 | 6 |
| 3/31/2027 | 1,025,700 | 29,620 | 25,850 | 85,850 | 6 |
| 3/31/2026 | 911,644 | 22,867 | 47,072 | 97,806 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 858,210 | 20,259 | 111,699 | 158,834 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 811,274 | 17,980 | 84,535 | 131,806 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 791,932 | 11,622 | 50,688 | 99,892 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 796,667 | 12,522 | 31,821 | 82,176 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 797,729 | 10,203 | -36,846 | 15,410 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 799,819 | 11,440 | -24,280 | 31,583 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 801,115 | 13,625 | -15,063 | 41,450 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 788,867 | 13,191 | 41,121 | 99,818 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 825,977 | 16,280 | 43,701 | 107,737 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 860,965 | 17,997 | 56,962 | 117,969 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 906,958 | 18,641 | 59,866 | 116,787 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 938,098 | 18,412 | 12,414 | 64,163 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 932,566 | 15,458 | 12,671 | 56,686 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 911,225 | 14,853 | -8,812 | 33,485 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 871,095 | 13,074 | -15,111 | 25,225 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 865,166 | 16,587 | -13,330 | 22,733 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 850,001 | 20,358 | -5,019 | 27,277 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 849,432 | 20,403 | 19,866 | 49,052 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 832,147 | 14,887 | 27,072 | 57,382 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 747,559 | 355 | 20,045 | 53,842 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 719,752 | -6,808 | 10,782 | 48,359 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 712,106 | -6,691 | 5,549 | 46,100 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 736,962 | -1,125 | 3,182 | 46,774 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 831,034 | 17,412 | 24,511 | 72,387 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 875,332 | 25,303 | N/A | 87,209 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 916,609 | 36,684 | N/A | 83,764 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 953,613 | 46,944 | N/A | 90,348 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 991,365 | 55,809 | N/A | 92,617 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 1,020,322 | 68,006 | N/A | 97,435 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1,036,589 | 71,870 | N/A | 89,386 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 1,037,198 | 70,469 | N/A | 84,502 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 1,020,338 | 69,312 | N/A | 83,746 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 1,009,181 | 63,363 | N/A | 54,660 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 986,915 | 54,074 | N/A | 71,909 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 961,186 | 50,472 | N/A | 71,508 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 949,170 | 45,560 | N/A | 67,936 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 937,520 | 45,725 | N/A | 88,496 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 941,164 | 52,131 | N/A | 97,735 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 955,915 | 59,516 | N/A | 107,459 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 975,319 | 65,719 | N/A | 108,622 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 998,439 | 68,512 | N/A | 116,343 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 1,000,230 | 69,529 | N/A | 99,710 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: 6471's forecast earnings growth (19% per year) is above the savings rate (0.8%).
Earnings vs Market: 6471's earnings (19% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the JP market (10% per year).
High Growth Earnings: 6471's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: 6471's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the JP market (6.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: 6471's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: 6471's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.7%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/02 23:04 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/02 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
NSK Ltd. is covered by 15 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Tsutomu Kijima | Barclays |
| Hideyuki Mizuno | BofA Global Research |
| Graeme McDonald | Citigroup Inc |