Genel Energy plc

LSE:GENL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£244.2m

Genel Energy Valuation

Is GENL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GENL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GENL (£0.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GENL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GENL?

Key metric: As GENL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GENL. This is calculated by dividing GENL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GENL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.1x
SalesUS$74.40m
Market CapUS$308.56m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GENL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GENL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.5x
GKP Gulf Keystone Petroleum
3.5x35.2%UK£317.2m
ENQ EnQuest
0.2x-9.7%UK£204.4m
TLW Tullow Oil
0.2x-6.9%UK£294.9m
SAVE Savannah Energy
2x43.9%UK£344.5m
GENL Genel Energy
4.1x17.0%UK£244.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GENL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GENL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
0.1xn/aUS$21.03b
TLW Tullow Oil
0.2x-6.9%US$372.63m
ENQ EnQuest
0.2x-9.7%US$258.24m
NWF NWF Group
0.08x4.8%US$95.29m
GENL 4.1xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies11PS01.22.43.64.86+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GENL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GENL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GENL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.1x
Fair PS Ratio2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GENL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GENL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£0.88
UK£0.96
+8.5%
12.2%UK£1.12UK£0.80n/a4
Nov ’25UK£0.75
UK£0.96
+28.0%
14.2%UK£1.14UK£0.80n/a3
Oct ’25UK£0.73
UK£1.00
+36.9%
8.1%UK£1.10UK£0.90n/a3
Sep ’25UK£0.81
UK£1.04
+28.1%
6.1%UK£1.10UK£0.95n/a3
Aug ’25UK£0.86
UK£1.02
+19.0%
6.3%UK£1.09UK£0.93n/a3
Jul ’25UK£0.95
UK£1.03
+8.4%
6.1%UK£1.10UK£0.95n/a3
Jun ’25UK£0.96
UK£0.99
+3.0%
10.7%UK£1.10UK£0.85n/a3
May ’25UK£0.85
UK£0.97
+14.0%
8.2%UK£1.05UK£0.86n/a3
Apr ’25UK£0.83
UK£0.97
+16.0%
8.7%UK£1.05UK£0.85n/a3
Mar ’25UK£0.84
UK£0.99
+17.4%
10.7%UK£1.11UK£0.85n/a3
Feb ’25UK£0.70
UK£0.97
+37.4%
10.6%UK£1.10UK£0.85n/a3
Jan ’25UK£0.77
UK£1.06
+38.6%
14.6%UK£1.28UK£0.95n/a3
Dec ’24UK£0.73
UK£1.06
+46.4%
14.6%UK£1.28UK£0.95UK£0.853
Nov ’24UK£0.82
UK£1.37
+67.9%
5.9%UK£1.45UK£1.29UK£0.752
Oct ’24UK£0.80
UK£1.39
+73.6%
0.6%UK£1.40UK£1.38UK£0.732
Sep ’24UK£0.83
UK£1.39
+66.7%
0.6%UK£1.40UK£1.38UK£0.812
Aug ’24UK£1.04
UK£1.36
+31.2%
0.3%UK£1.37UK£1.36UK£0.862
Jul ’24UK£1.03
UK£1.47
+42.5%
4.6%UK£1.54UK£1.41UK£0.952
Jun ’24UK£1.12
UK£1.74
+56.2%
22.3%UK£2.29UK£1.40UK£0.963
May ’24UK£1.11
UK£1.78
+60.3%
17.0%UK£2.30UK£1.55UK£0.854
Apr ’24UK£1.17
UK£1.84
+57.5%
15.4%UK£2.33UK£1.62UK£0.834
Mar ’24UK£1.27
UK£1.82
+44.0%
15.0%UK£2.30UK£1.62UK£0.844
Feb ’24UK£1.30
UK£1.82
+40.7%
15.0%UK£2.30UK£1.62UK£0.704
Jan ’24UK£1.25
UK£1.90
+52.8%
13.9%UK£2.29UK£1.63UK£0.774
Dec ’23UK£1.41
UK£1.98
+40.4%
12.0%UK£2.30UK£1.70UK£0.734

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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