Shift4 Payments, Inc.

NYSE:FOUR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.7b

Shift4 Payments Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Shift4 Payments is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 34.8% and 14.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 32.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 33.3% in 3 years.

Key information

34.8%

Earnings growth rate

32.61%

EPS growth rate

Diversified Financial earnings growth7.2%
Revenue growth rate14.1%
Future return on equity33.34%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated24 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

FOUR: Slower Organic Trends But AI Partnerships And Buybacks Will Support Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Shift4 Payments slightly, reflecting a modest fair value adjustment to about $65.73 as multiple firms reduced targets in response to slower organic growth, softer revenue yield and more cautious long term guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shift4 Payments points to a split view, with several firms cutting ratings or targets while others still see upside if management can execute on its plans and growth initiatives.

FOUR: Slower Organic Trends And 2026 Reset Will Unlock Long Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed Shift4 Payments' average price targets across the Street, with cuts ranging from about $3 to $40, reflecting concerns about slower organic growth, softer near term trends, and a more cautious outlook on 2026 guidance, even as many still highlight multiple growth levers and potential shareholder value creation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shift4 Payments highlights a split view, with bearish analysts focused on slower organic growth and softer near term trends, while bullish analysts point to multiple avenues for execution and shareholder value creation despite reduced targets.

FOUR: Slower Organic Trends Will Set Up Long Term Upside Potential

Analysts have reset expectations on Shift4 Payments, with the implied fair value estimate moving from about $95.86 to $65.96 as they factor in slower organic revenue growth, softer profit margins, a higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple following a broad round of price target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shift4 Payments reflects a wide range of opinions, with most firms cutting price targets but diverging on how much weight to put on slower organic growth, Q4 execution, and the updated 2026 outlook.

FOUR: Stablecoin Platform And Hospitality Softness Will Shape A More Balanced Outlook

Narrative Update: Shift4 Payments Analysts have reset expectations for Shift4 Payments, with our fair value estimate moving from $65.00 to $50.00 as they factor in softer organic revenue growth, lower revenue yield, increased discount rates, reduced profit margin assumptions, and a much higher future P/E multiple following a series of price target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Shift4 Payments has turned more cautious, with a series of price target cuts and rating changes that frame a more risk aware outlook on the stock.

FOUR: Stablecoin And Sports Deals Will Counter Softer Hospitality Expectations

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Shift4 Payments by about $10 to $101. This reflects softer near term expectations, especially around hotel RevPAR, and related estimate cuts heading into the next earnings report.

FOUR Stock: 26% Revenue Growth Vs. F-Grade Momentum | 2-Minute Analysis

Feb 18

FOUR: Stablecoin And Sports Deals Will Offset Hospitality Weakness Concerns

Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Shift4 Payments by single digit dollar amounts, citing softer near term hospitality trends, slightly lower organic volume expectations, and modestly reduced long term revenue and profit forecasts, even as they acknowledge the company's recent execution and ongoing growth drivers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Shift4 Payments has tilted more cautious, with a series of price target cuts and at least one downgrade reflecting increased focus on execution risks and softer expectations tied to the hospitality and restaurant verticals.

FOUR: Cautious Long Term Margins Offset By New Stablecoin And Sports Deals

Analysts cut their fair value estimate for Shift4 Payments to about $65.00 from roughly $96.14, citing a mix of lower price targets across the Street, a higher discount rate, and revised assumptions for long term margins and P/E multiples, even as revenue growth expectations were adjusted higher. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Shift4 Payments has leaned more cautious, with a series of reduced price targets and at least one downgrade.

FOUR: Stablecoin Settlement Platform And Buyback Authorization Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have slightly raised their fair value estimate for Shift4 Payments to about $121.55 from roughly $120.86. This reflects modestly lower revenue growth assumptions, a higher projected profit margin, and recent Street price target reductions that factor in macro uncertainty, softer hospitality and restaurant expectations, and mixed contributions from acquisitions.

FOUR Stablecoin Expansion And Buyback Program Will Drive Future Upside

Shift4 Payments' fair value estimate has been revised down from about $151 to $121 per share, as analysts modestly trim long term revenue and EBITDA forecasts amid macro uncertainty, softer expectations in certain hospitality and restaurant verticals, and broadly lower Street price targets despite still solid organic growth and profitability trends. Analyst Commentary Despite a broad reset in price targets, Street commentary remains generally constructive on Shift4 Payments, with many bullish analysts emphasizing the company’s strong execution, durable growth profile, and attractive risk reward after recent share price volatility.

FOUR: Upcoming Buyback And Sports Partnerships Will Drive Long Term Upside

Analysts have nudged their average price targets for Shift4 Payments slightly lower, trimming them by a few dollars per share. This reflects modestly reduced long term growth and margin assumptions amid macro and vertical specific uncertainty, despite still robust underlying fundamentals.

FOUR: Upcoming Buyback Authorization And Sports Expansions Will Drive Shareholder Value

Analysts have slightly reduced their average price target for Shift4 Payments, lowering it by less than $1 as they factor in moderate updates to growth estimates and profit margins because of near-term uncertainties in core verticals. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment on Shift4 Payments is mixed, with recent research reflecting both optimism about the company’s long-term prospects and caution surrounding near-term risks.

FOUR: Future Buyback Authorization And Sports Expansion Will Support Shareholder Return

Shift4 Payments' analyst price target has been lowered from approximately $106 to $97, as analysts cite strong core business momentum. However, they note this is tempered by further macroeconomic uncertainty and revised growth expectations.

Sector Uncertainty And Partnerships Will Shape Future Cashless Payment Expansion

Shift4 Payments' fair value estimate was revised slightly downward to $105.62 from $108.35. Analysts cited modestly lower growth and profit margin assumptions amid ongoing sector uncertainty and recent price target reductions.

International Acquisitions Will Drive New Cashless Payment Opportunities

Analysts have lowered their price target for Shift4 Payments by approximately $2 to $108.35. They cite near-term growth headwinds and slightly reduced profit margins, despite resilient core business performance and optimism for long-term revenue opportunities.

International Acquisitions Will Drive New Cashless Payment Opportunities

Despite mixed Q2 results, sector underperformance, and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty leading to near-term disappointment, analysts remain constructive on Shift4 Payments’ long-term growth prospects, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of $110.62. Analyst Commentary Mixed Q2 results: Slight revenue beat and EBITDA in-line, but Q2 volume missed expectations, leading to short-term disappointment and recent stock underperformance.

Here's Why We Think Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Apr 12
Here's Why We Think Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Shift4 Payments: This Is The Dip I Was Waiting For (Rating Upgrade)

Mar 20

Some Confidence Is Lacking In Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) As Shares Slide 25%

Mar 08
Some Confidence Is Lacking In Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) As Shares Slide 25%

Shareholders Should Be Pleased With Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s (NYSE:FOUR) Price

Jan 07
Shareholders Should Be Pleased With Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s (NYSE:FOUR) Price

Shift4 Payments Is A Growth Beast And A Reasonable Buy

Dec 20

Shift4: CEO Departure A Big Risk For Investors?

Dec 07

Shift4 Payments: Waiting For A Dip To Catch The Next Rip

Nov 18

Earnings Miss: Here's What Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Nov 15
Earnings Miss: Here's What Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Shift4 Payments: International Expansion Continues And The Stock Is Cheap

Sep 08
User avatar

Expanding Global Footprint And Diverse Offerings Set To Elevate Earnings And Market Position

Expansion into stadiums, hotels, and international markets, coupled with acquisitions like Revel and Vectron, aims to boost future revenue and EBITDA.

Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s (NYSE:FOUR) Popularity With Investors Is Clear

Aug 14
Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s (NYSE:FOUR) Popularity With Investors Is Clear

Shift4 Payments: Undervalued, But The Prolonged Search For A Buyer Makes It A Pass

Jun 27

Shift4 Payments: The CEO Is Buying, And So Am I

Jun 13

Shift4 Payments: Despite The Bearish Argument, There's A Lot To Like

May 21

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:FOUR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,681359N/A1,0183
12/31/20275,77924465890913
12/31/20265,07416453273015
12/31/20254,18080373634N/A
9/30/20253,878168299541N/A
6/30/20253,611208304512N/A
3/31/20253,472223282482N/A
12/31/20243,331232311500N/A
9/30/20243,149126267432N/A
6/30/20242,915106243402N/A
3/31/20242,72592223382N/A
12/31/20232,56586199346N/A
9/30/20232,397102274423N/A
6/30/20232,269111-17376N/A
3/31/20232,13997-63324N/A
12/31/20221,99475-105275N/A
9/30/20221,85536-240133N/A
6/30/20221,686-15-3082N/A
3/31/20221,530-24-5341N/A
12/31/20211,368-49-823N/A
9/30/20211,179-53-6713N/A
6/30/20211,016-48-609N/A
3/31/2021807-52-527N/A
12/31/2020767-19-294N/A
9/30/2020758-18-3211N/A
6/30/2020737-36-2711N/A
3/31/2020776-43-1526N/A
12/31/2019731-57-1227N/A
12/31/2018561-55N/A26N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FOUR's forecast earnings growth (34.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: FOUR's earnings (34.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (15.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FOUR's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FOUR's revenue (14.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FOUR's revenue (14.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FOUR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (33.3%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/30 03:27
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/30 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Shift4 Payments, Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ramsey El-AssalBarclays
John CoffeyBarclays
Mark PalmerBenchmark Company