Treace Medical Concepts Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Treace Medical Concepts is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 7.6% and 5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -94.1% in 3 years.
Key information
7.6%
Earnings growth rate
9.32%
EPS growth rate
| Medical Equipment earnings growth | 16.1% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.0% |
| Future return on equity | -94.10% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 14 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
TMCI: New 2026 Products And Expanded Market Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Treace Medical Concepts to $7.00, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, which they believe better reflect the company’s current risk and earnings profile. What's in the News Treace Medical Concepts reaffirmed revenue guidance for full-year 2026 at US$202 million to US$212 million, with the company indicating this would represent a decline of 5% to flat compared to full-year 2025.
Narrative Update • May 01
TMCI: New Launches And 2026 Product Mix Will Shape Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly lowered their average price targets on Treace Medical Concepts, with cuts such as $3 to $2, $2.50 to $2.25 and $7.50 to $7. This reflects caution around recent product mix shifts and a preference to wait for clearer signs that new launches can support positive growth again.Narrative Update • Apr 15
TMCI: New Product Rollouts And 2026 Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted the fair value estimate for Treace Medical Concepts to $4.25 from $3.85, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E. Recent Street price target cuts to $2, $2.25, and $7 highlight differing views on how quickly new product rollouts might support the story.Narrative Update • Apr 01
TMCI: New Product Mix And 2026 Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update on Treace Medical Concepts Analysts have reduced their average price targets on Treace Medical Concepts, with cuts such as $3 to $2, $2.50 to $2.25, and $7.50 to $7. This reflects caution around Q4 product mix shifts, slower growth expectations, and a preference to wait for clearer evidence that new product rollouts can support a more constructive outlook.Narrative Update • Mar 18
TMCI: New Product Rollouts And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets for Treace Medical Concepts by a few dollars into a lower single digit range, citing recent target cuts from $7.50 to $7, from $5 to $3, from $3 to $2, and from $2.50 to $2.25 as they weigh mixed Q4 trends, new product mix effects, and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a split view on Treace Medical Concepts, with price targets moving into a lower single digit range but with different angles on execution risk and potential upside.Narrative Update • Mar 04
TMCI: New Product Rollouts And Mix Shift Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update: Treace Medical Concepts The updated analyst price target for Treace Medical Concepts edges down from $7.50 to $7.00, reflecting analysts' reactions to recent price target cuts across the Street and their focus on mixed Q4 product trends and the timing of any potential growth reacceleration. Analyst Commentary Street research on Treace Medical Concepts remains mixed, with several firms trimming price targets but offering different takes on execution and long term potential.Narrative Update • Feb 17
TMCI: Future Medtech Recovery And New Technology Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Treace Medical Concepts from about $4.87 to $4.20, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, future P/E multiples, and a lower $3 Street price target cited in recent research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the updated fair value of about $4.20 as still above the current $3 Street price target, which they view as leaving some room if execution on growth and margins matches internal assumptions.Narrative Update • Feb 03
TMCI: Consistent Execution And New Technology Will Support Recovery Ahead
Narrative Update on Treace Medical Concepts Analysts have trimmed their price target for Treace Medical Concepts to $3 from $5, citing recent guidance noise, the one-off benefit from an estimated $6m distributor order in Q3, and a preference within MedTech coverage for larger peers. They still see room for more consistent execution ahead.Narrative Update • Jan 20
TMCI: Consistent Execution Will Support Recovery Despite Reset Expectations
Narrative Update on Treace Medical Concepts Analysts have trimmed their price target on Treace Medical Concepts, with our fair value estimate easing from $5.27 to $4.87 as they factor in recent target cuts, more cautious profit margin assumptions, and slightly lower future P/E expectations following mixed guidance and order dynamics. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a clear reset in expectations for Treace Medical Concepts, with price targets stepping down as analysts weigh mixed guidance, order visibility, and the potential for more consistent execution over time.Analysis Article • Jan 07
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TMCI) Low P/S
You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TMCI ) is...Narrative Update • Jan 05
TMCI: Consistent Execution And Cleaner Outlook Will Support Future Share Recovery
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Treace Medical Concepts, with figures moving from around $6 to a range of $5 to $7. This shift reflects more cautious views after a complex Q3 and 2025 outlook discussion, while still acknowledging management’s comments about the potential for steadier execution ahead.Narrative Update • Dec 21
TMCI: Reset Guidance And Cleaner Execution Will Support Renewed Upside Potential
Analysts have reduced their price targets on Treace Medical Concepts, trimming fair value expectations from about $12.00 to $7.50 per share. They are weighing solid reported sales against concerns that one time distributor orders and ongoing MedTech sector volatility may be masking weaker underlying demand, even as management signals potential for steadier execution ahead.Narrative Update • Dec 07
TMCI: Consistent Execution Efforts Will Support Minimally Invasive Market Expansion Ahead
Analysts trimmed their price targets on Treace Medical Concepts to a range of about $5 to $7, citing a Q3 performance flattered by a one time $6M distributor order and broader MedTech sector volatility, while also acknowledging management's initiatives to drive more consistent execution and an improved outlook. Analyst Commentary Street research following the Q3 update has focused on reconciling the solid reported top line with concerns about the sustainability of growth and the risk profile of the broader MedTech space.Narrative Update • Nov 22
TMCI: Recent Minimally Invasive Launches Will Drive Market Expansion Ahead
Treace Medical Concepts saw its average analyst price target decrease from $6.56 to $5.47, as analysts cite softer underlying sales growth and concerns about the sustainability of recent distributor-driven outperformance. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts have cited Treace Medical’s growing portfolio, particularly the launch of new minimally invasive surgery (MIS) bunion products, as strengthening the company’s competitive position and potential for market share gains.Analysis Article • Nov 08
Is Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ:TMCI) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Nov 08
TMCI: New Minimally Invasive Launches Will Drive Broader Market Reach
Analysts have lowered their price targets for Treace Medical Concepts, with the consensus fair value decreasing from $8.58 to $6.56. They cite mixed signals in recent earnings and a more cautious outlook, despite positive revenue surprises.Analysis Article • Aug 20
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TMCI) Shares Leap 27% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story
NasdaqGS:TMCI 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Treace Medical Concepts's Fair Values from the Community and...Narrative Update • Aug 10
Minimally Invasive Bunion Solutions Will Broaden Market Penetration
The downward revision in the analyst price target for Treace Medical Concepts primarily reflects a material decline in the forecasted Future P/E multiple, while revenue growth expectations remain stable, resulting in a new fair value of $8.35. What's in the News Four-year interim results from the ALIGN3D multicenter study show the Lapiplasty® Procedure delivers sustained clinical and radiographic success for hallux valgus, including early return to weight bearing (average 7.7 days) and low recurrence rates (0.8% using HVA>20°, 8.4% using HVA>15° at 48 months).Analysis Article • Aug 10
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$8.35 Price Target
Shareholders of Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TMCI ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is...Analysis Article • Aug 09
Health Check: How Prudently Does Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ:TMCI) Use Debt?
NasdaqGS:TMCI 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Treace Medical Concepts's Fair Values from the Community and...Analysis Article • May 13
We Discuss Why Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TMCI) CEO Compensation May Be Closely Reviewed
Key Insights Treace Medical Concepts will host its Annual General Meeting on 20th of May CEO John Treace's total...Analysis Article • May 11
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TMCI ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares...Seeking Alpha • Apr 07
Treace Medical Concepts: No Solid Footing
Summary Treace Medical Concepts faces challenges with slower growth, significant operating losses, and competitive pressures, making it difficult to recommend buying the dip. Despite innovative bunion treatment technology and a substantial patent portfolio, the company struggles with profitability and market competition. Revenue growth has slowed, with the 2024 sales guidance cut and operating losses increasing, raising concerns about the company's financial health. With shares trading at a low sales multiple, the combination of losses, dilution, and competitive threats makes investment in Treace Medical Concepts risky. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Mar 27
New Bunion Treatments Will Open Broader Market Opportunities
Innovative products and expanded portfolio aim to penetrate the U.S. bunion market and enhance revenue through increased surgeon adoption and market appeal.Analysis Article • Jan 18
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) Stock Rockets 26% But Many Are Still Ignoring The Company
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TMCI ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last...Analysis Article • Dec 03
Further Upside For Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 84% Bounce
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TMCI ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 84% after a shaky...Analysis Article • Oct 26
Is Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ:TMCI) Using Debt In A Risky Way?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Aug 02
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) Screens Well But There Might Be A Catch
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:TMCI ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.1x might make it look like a buy...Analysis Article • Jun 28
Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ:TMCI) Has Debt But No Earnings; Should You Worry?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Seeking Alpha • Jun 14
Treace Medical Concepts: Facing Increasing Competitive Pressure
Summary Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. stock plummeted 63% after revising the FY24 outlook due to competitive pressure from MIS osteotomy devices and knockoff Lapiplasty products. Treace's Lapiplasty 3D Bunion Correction System offers a superior solution to traditional bunion surgeries, but poor marketing has hindered market penetration. Despite insider buying by CEO John Treace, analysts have downgraded Treace stock and foresee continued losses in FY24 and FY25. Are analysts or the insider wrong on the stock? An analysis of Treace Medical Concepts follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 05
Market Still Lacking Some Conviction On Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI)
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 3.4x in the Medical Equipment industry in the United States...Analysis Article • Feb 09
Does Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ:TMCI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 238 | -48 | -34 | -23 | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 222 | -55 | -36 | -24 | 5 |
| 12/31/2026 | 206 | -58 | -12 | 1 | 5 |
| 3/31/2026 | 207 | -61 | -26 | -13 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 213 | -59 | -29 | -16 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 219 | -50 | -26 | -12 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 214 | -49 | -29 | -15 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 211 | -53 | -37 | -26 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 209 | -56 | -49 | -37 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 203 | -62 | -43 | -32 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 199 | -64 | -42 | -30 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 196 | -55 | -38 | -25 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 187 | -50 | -46 | -35 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 175 | -48 | -52 | -40 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 167 | -42 | -52 | -38 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 155 | -47 | -56 | -41 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 142 | -43 | -45 | -31 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 126 | -45 | -42 | -29 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 114 | -39 | -39 | -31 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 105 | -27 | -28 | -24 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 94 | -21 | -20 | -17 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 85 | -12 | -13 | -11 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 78 | -8 | -7 | -6 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 65 | -5 | -5 | -4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 57 | -4 | -6 | -4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 39 | -5 | N/A | -8 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: TMCI is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: TMCI is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: TMCI is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: TMCI's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.8% per year).
High Growth Revenue: TMCI's revenue (5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: TMCI is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/09 10:07 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/09 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. is covered by 6 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Michael Gorman | BTIG |
| Lilia-Celine Lozada | J.P. Morgan |
| Benjamin Haynor | Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC |