The GEO Group, Inc.

NYSE:GEO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

GEO Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

GEO Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 86.2% and 14% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 85% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 21.6% in 3 years.

Key information

86.2%

Earnings growth rate

85.0%

EPS growth rate

Commercial Services earnings growth14.3%
Revenue growth rate14.0%
Future return on equity21.6%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated01 May 2025

Recent future growth updates

The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Mar 04
The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Recent updates

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

Apr 27
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

Mar 22
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

The GEO Group: The Stock Has Re-Priced And No Longer Offers Attractive Risk/Reward

Mar 21

The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Mar 04
The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

These 4 Measures Indicate That GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Using Debt Extensively

Feb 25
These 4 Measures Indicate That GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Using Debt Extensively

GEO Group: Shares Have Gotten Ahead Of Growth Potential

Feb 10

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Stock Rockets 34% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Jan 18
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Stock Rockets 34% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

The GEO Group: Further Upside Potential From Trump's Immigration Policy

Jan 13

When Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO)?

Dec 31
When Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO)?

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

Dec 16
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

Are Investors Undervaluing The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) By 31%?

Dec 04
Are Investors Undervaluing The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) By 31%?

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce

Oct 29
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce

GEO Group: Financial Deterioration Amid Debt Reduction Focus

Oct 24
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Calculated Contracts And Legislative Developments Fuel Growth In Managed Services And Tech Solutions

Sep 12 New contracts with ICE and in Australia are poised to drive revenue growth in the managed-only segment from increased contract activations.

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

Sep 05
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

We Think You Can Look Beyond GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Lackluster Earnings

Aug 15
We Think You Can Look Beyond GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Lackluster Earnings

Shareholders Should Be Pleased With The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Price

Aug 13
Shareholders Should Be Pleased With The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Price

GEO Group: Golden Opportunity Following The 32% Selloff

Aug 06

We Think GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Jul 29
We Think GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Is There An Opportunity With The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) 47% Undervaluation?

Jul 15
Is There An Opportunity With The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) 47% Undervaluation?

Returns Are Gaining Momentum At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

May 08
Returns Are Gaining Momentum At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Still Appears To Be Reasonable

Apr 22
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Still Appears To Be Reasonable

Geo Group: A Potential Election Play

Apr 17

Here's Why GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Apr 07
Here's Why GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

GEO Group Could Resume The Dividend Sooner Than Later

Jan 29

GEO Group Offers Attractive 10% Yields On Long Term Debt

Jan 22

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks

Dec 20
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks

GEO Group: Despite Uneven Results, A Lot Of Upside Remains

Nov 15

GEO Group: The Opportunity Is Still Big

Nov 08

GEO Group: The Valuation Expansion Story May Have Just Begun

Oct 03

Unlocking Hidden Value: The GEO Group's Remarkable Transformation In A Niche Industry

Sep 14

Is GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) A Risky Investment?

Sep 02
Is GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) A Risky Investment?

GEO Group: While A Disappointment, Potential Catalysts Remain

Aug 31

Inexpensive GEO Group May Benefit From Immigration Changes

Aug 01

GEO Group: Solid Fundamentals And Extremely Cheap

Jul 19

The GEO Group Stock May Have Bottomed - Buy

Jun 30

There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Returns On Capital

May 21
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Returns On Capital

The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Apr 28
The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:GEO - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20263,2073335456574
12/31/20252,6631622824185
12/31/20242,42430164242N/A
9/30/20242,42436201279N/A
6/30/20242,42430209290N/A
3/31/20242,41189202276N/A
12/31/20232,41389205278N/A
9/30/20232,426103228299N/A
6/30/20232,439114148234N/A
3/31/20232,434134179269N/A
12/31/20222,377142198288N/A
9/30/20222,31465136221N/A
6/30/20222,25462188249N/A
3/31/20222,23153224280N/A
12/31/20212,25770213283N/A
9/30/20212,277126291373N/A
6/30/20212,299136291391N/A
3/31/20212,321137333438N/A
12/31/20202,350113333442N/A
9/30/20202,394139263373N/A
6/30/20202,446146263378N/A
3/31/20202,472151248367N/A
12/31/20192,478167221338N/A
9/30/20192,456162252377N/A
6/30/20192,408155167311N/A
3/31/20192,377151132304N/A
12/31/20182,33114579274N/A
9/30/20182,301148N/A543N/A
6/30/20182,284147N/A511N/A
3/31/20182,278141N/A403N/A
12/31/20172,263146N/A381N/A
9/30/20172,261159N/A42N/A
6/30/20172,249165N/A-16N/A
3/31/20172,220157N/A37N/A
12/31/20162,179149N/A-28N/A
9/30/20162,113143N/A19N/A
6/30/20162,029138N/A101N/A
3/31/20161,926143N/A64N/A
12/31/20151,843139N/A142N/A
9/30/20151,771133N/A149N/A
6/30/20151,759134N/A150N/A
3/31/20151,726145N/A200N/A
12/31/20141,692144N/A203N/A
9/30/20141,647133N/A199N/A
6/30/20141,569127N/A223N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GEO's forecast earnings growth (86.2% per year) is above the savings rate (2.8%).

Earnings vs Market: GEO's earnings (86.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GEO's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GEO's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GEO's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GEO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.6%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/04 15:38
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/02 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The GEO Group, Inc. is covered by 21 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian HoffmanAvondale Partners
Manav PatnaikBarclays
Ryan MelikerCanaccord Genuity