Howmet Aerospace Inc.

NYSE:HWM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$48.4b

Howmet Aerospace Valuation

Is HWM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HWM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$181.81
Fair Value
34.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: HWM ($119.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($181.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HWM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWM?

Key metric: As HWM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HWM. This is calculated by dividing HWM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HWM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio45x
EarningsUS$1.08b
Market CapUS$48.42b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average65.3x
LHX L3Harris Technologies
33.8x19.7%US$40.8b
AXON Axon Enterprise
148.7x20.0%US$44.2b
TDG TransDigm Group
49.4x17.3%US$73.1b
NOC Northrop Grumman
29.2x12.0%US$69.3b
HWM Howmet Aerospace
45x16.0%US$48.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45x) compared to the peer average (65.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CVU CPI Aerostructures
3.8xn/aUS$64.22m
AWIN AERWINS Technologies
0.0001xn/aUS$277.00
GIGA.Q Gresham Worldwide
n/an/aUS$7.00
No more companies available in this PE range
HWM 45.0xIndustry Avg. 34.3xNo. of Companies6PE020406080100+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (33.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio45x
Fair PE Ratio31.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$119.19
US$124.60
+4.5%
12.1%US$144.00US$81.00n/a22
Jan ’26US$109.37
US$124.37
+13.7%
12.0%US$144.00US$81.00n/a22
Dec ’25US$118.38
US$123.55
+4.4%
13.2%US$144.00US$70.00n/a22
Nov ’25US$100.03
US$108.73
+8.7%
11.5%US$127.00US$70.00n/a22
Oct ’25US$100.92
US$103.19
+2.2%
10.5%US$115.00US$70.00n/a21
Sep ’25US$96.66
US$103.00
+6.6%
10.6%US$115.00US$70.00n/a21
Aug ’25US$94.87
US$99.81
+5.2%
11.5%US$115.00US$70.00n/a21
Jul ’25US$77.30
US$86.10
+11.4%
11.3%US$102.00US$53.00n/a21
Jun ’25US$84.65
US$86.47
+2.2%
10.8%US$102.00US$53.00n/a19
May ’25US$66.78
US$71.65
+7.3%
6.5%US$80.00US$60.00n/a19
Apr ’25US$66.11
US$69.27
+4.8%
8.8%US$80.00US$53.00n/a20
Mar ’25US$67.00
US$67.18
+0.3%
7.9%US$75.00US$53.00n/a19
Feb ’25US$57.38
US$61.63
+7.4%
8.1%US$74.00US$53.00n/a19
Jan ’25US$54.12
US$56.94
+5.2%
7.2%US$66.00US$47.00US$109.3718
Dec ’24US$52.90
US$56.28
+6.4%
6.3%US$61.00US$47.00US$118.3818
Nov ’24US$44.72
US$55.15
+23.3%
6.4%US$61.00US$47.00US$100.0317
Oct ’24US$46.25
US$55.53
+20.1%
5.9%US$61.00US$47.00US$100.9216
Sep ’24US$49.69
US$53.28
+7.2%
15.8%US$61.00US$23.00US$96.6616
Aug ’24US$48.99
US$50.44
+3.0%
15.6%US$61.00US$23.00US$94.8716
Jul ’24US$49.56
US$49.06
-1.0%
15.1%US$55.00US$23.00US$77.3016
Jun ’24US$43.73
US$48.50
+10.9%
15.0%US$55.00US$23.00US$84.6516
May ’24US$44.30
US$45.74
+3.3%
15.0%US$52.00US$23.00US$66.7815
Apr ’24US$42.37
US$45.30
+6.9%
15.2%US$52.00US$23.00US$66.1115
Mar ’24US$42.80
US$44.81
+4.7%
16.2%US$52.00US$23.00US$67.0013
Feb ’24US$40.59
US$42.96
+5.8%
7.0%US$47.00US$35.00US$57.3813
Jan ’24US$39.41
US$41.25
+4.7%
9.5%US$47.00US$32.00US$54.1214
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 22 Analysts
US$124.60
Fair Value
4.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/15 01:44
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/14 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Howmet Aerospace Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
Peter ArmentBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research