Northrop Grumman Corporation

NYSE:NOC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$72.0b

Northrop Grumman Valuation

Is NOC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOC ($493.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($677.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOC?

Key metric: As NOC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOC. This is calculated by dividing NOC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.3x
EarningsUS$2.38b
Market CapUS$71.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.8x
GD General Dynamics
21.7x9.2%US$79.1b
TDG TransDigm Group
47.6x17.2%US$70.5b
LHX L3Harris Technologies
38.8x20.7%US$46.8b
LMT Lockheed Martin
19x2.0%US$126.8b
NOC Northrop Grumman
30.3x12.0%US$72.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.3x) compared to the peer average (31.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CVU CPI Aerostructures
2.2xn/aUS$38.35m
ETCC Environmental Tectonics
4.7xn/aUS$30.05m
AWIN AERWINS Technologies
0.002xn/aUS$6.93k
GIGA.Q Gresham Worldwide
n/an/aUS$7.00
No more companies available in this PE range
NOC 30.3xIndustry Avg. 34.1xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.3x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (34.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.3x
Fair PE Ratio28.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$493.99
US$567.20
+14.8%
7.7%US$643.00US$448.00n/a22
Nov ’25US$506.95
US$562.20
+10.9%
8.3%US$643.00US$448.00n/a22
Oct ’25US$543.88
US$523.70
-3.7%
10.0%US$614.00US$398.00n/a22
Sep ’25US$523.21
US$520.15
-0.6%
9.4%US$605.00US$398.00n/a22
Aug ’25US$493.36
US$520.30
+5.5%
9.5%US$605.00US$398.00n/a21
Jul ’25US$435.00
US$501.18
+15.2%
10.5%US$593.00US$396.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$450.77
US$502.99
+11.6%
10.3%US$585.00US$396.00n/a21
May ’25US$486.37
US$500.09
+2.8%
10.3%US$585.00US$396.00n/a22
Apr ’25US$471.35
US$485.96
+3.1%
11.4%US$615.00US$385.00n/a22
Mar ’25US$454.90
US$486.64
+7.0%
11.6%US$615.00US$385.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$446.22
US$488.27
+9.4%
11.6%US$615.00US$385.00n/a22
Jan ’25US$468.14
US$497.64
+6.3%
11.1%US$615.00US$382.00n/a22
Dec ’24US$479.84
US$502.81
+4.8%
11.1%US$615.00US$382.00n/a21
Nov ’24US$468.26
US$502.71
+7.4%
11.1%US$615.00US$382.00US$506.9521
Oct ’24US$440.19
US$494.65
+12.4%
11.5%US$615.00US$384.00US$543.8820
Sep ’24US$435.62
US$496.89
+14.1%
11.4%US$615.00US$384.00US$523.2119
Aug ’24US$448.15
US$499.37
+11.4%
11.3%US$615.00US$384.00US$493.3619
Jul ’24US$455.80
US$501.74
+10.1%
13.3%US$655.00US$384.00US$435.0019
Jun ’24US$438.51
US$502.37
+14.6%
13.4%US$655.00US$384.00US$450.7719
May ’24US$462.72
US$511.95
+10.6%
13.0%US$655.00US$384.00US$486.3719
Apr ’24US$461.72
US$510.74
+10.6%
13.4%US$655.00US$367.00US$471.3519
Mar ’24US$462.55
US$510.33
+10.3%
13.8%US$655.00US$367.00US$454.9018
Feb ’24US$442.59
US$516.50
+16.7%
14.0%US$655.00US$367.00US$446.2218
Jan ’24US$545.61
US$559.95
+2.6%
12.5%US$700.00US$368.00US$468.1419
Dec ’23US$530.30
US$552.61
+4.2%
12.8%US$700.00US$368.00US$479.8418
Nov ’23US$535.88
US$537.50
+0.3%
13.1%US$700.00US$368.00US$468.2618

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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