Northrop Grumman Corporation

NYSE:NOC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$70.3b

Northrop Grumman Valuation

Is NOC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$625.51
Fair Value
22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
24
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NOC ($482.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($625.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOC?

Key metric: As NOC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOC. This is calculated by dividing NOC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.6x
EarningsUS$2.38b
Market CapUS$70.28b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.9x
GD General Dynamics
20.1x9.0%US$73.2b
TDG TransDigm Group
50.9x17.3%US$75.3b
HWM Howmet Aerospace
47.4x16.2%US$50.9b
LMT Lockheed Martin
17.4x2.3%US$116.2b
NOC Northrop Grumman
29.6x12.0%US$70.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x) compared to the peer average (33.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CVU CPI Aerostructures
3.8xn/aUS$64.87m
HOVR New Horizon Aircraft
4.1xn/aUS$28.00m
GIGA.Q Gresham Worldwide
n/an/aUS$7.00
AWIN AERWINS Technologies
n/an/aUS$0
No more companies available in this PE range
NOC 29.6xIndustry Avg. 34.3xNo. of Companies6PE020406080100+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (34.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.6x
Fair PE Ratio28.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$482.38
US$551.77
+14.4%
7.6%US$604.00US$435.00n/a24
Jan ’26US$469.29
US$560.36
+19.4%
8.0%US$643.00US$448.00n/a23
Dec ’25US$489.65
US$566.19
+15.6%
7.5%US$643.00US$448.00n/a23
Nov ’25US$506.95
US$562.20
+10.9%
8.3%US$643.00US$448.00n/a22
Oct ’25US$543.88
US$523.70
-3.7%
10.0%US$614.00US$398.00n/a22
Sep ’25US$523.21
US$520.15
-0.6%
9.4%US$605.00US$398.00n/a22
Aug ’25US$493.36
US$520.30
+5.5%
9.5%US$605.00US$398.00n/a21
Jul ’25US$435.00
US$501.18
+15.2%
10.5%US$593.00US$396.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$450.77
US$502.99
+11.6%
10.3%US$585.00US$396.00n/a21
May ’25US$486.37
US$500.09
+2.8%
10.3%US$585.00US$396.00n/a22
Apr ’25US$471.35
US$485.96
+3.1%
11.4%US$615.00US$385.00n/a22
Mar ’25US$454.90
US$486.64
+7.0%
11.6%US$615.00US$385.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$446.22
US$488.27
+9.4%
11.6%US$615.00US$385.00n/a22
Jan ’25US$468.14
US$497.64
+6.3%
11.1%US$615.00US$382.00US$469.2922
Dec ’24US$479.84
US$502.81
+4.8%
11.1%US$615.00US$382.00US$489.6521
Nov ’24US$468.26
US$502.71
+7.4%
11.1%US$615.00US$382.00US$506.9521
Oct ’24US$440.19
US$494.65
+12.4%
11.5%US$615.00US$384.00US$543.8820
Sep ’24US$435.62
US$496.89
+14.1%
11.4%US$615.00US$384.00US$523.2119
Aug ’24US$448.15
US$499.37
+11.4%
11.3%US$615.00US$384.00US$493.3619
Jul ’24US$455.80
US$501.74
+10.1%
13.3%US$655.00US$384.00US$435.0019
Jun ’24US$438.51
US$502.37
+14.6%
13.4%US$655.00US$384.00US$450.7719
May ’24US$462.72
US$511.95
+10.6%
13.0%US$655.00US$384.00US$486.3719
Apr ’24US$461.72
US$510.74
+10.6%
13.4%US$655.00US$367.00US$471.3519
Mar ’24US$462.55
US$510.33
+10.3%
13.8%US$655.00US$367.00US$454.9018
Feb ’24US$442.59
US$516.50
+16.7%
14.0%US$655.00US$367.00US$446.2218
Jan ’24US$545.61
US$559.95
+2.6%
12.5%US$700.00US$368.00US$468.1419
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 24 Analysts
US$551.77
Fair Value
12.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
24
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/19 03:41
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Northrop Grumman Corporation is covered by 45 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
Peter ArmentBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research