Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock Overview
Engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for HCC from our risk checks.
HCC Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 63 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$105.93 |
| 52 Week High | US$110.39 |
| 52 Week Low | US$40.80 |
| Beta | 0.63 |
| 1 Month Change | 22.32% |
| 3 Month Change | 36.93% |
| 1 Year Change | 127.37% |
| 3 Year Change | 196.72% |
| 5 Year Change | 483.32% |
| Change since IPO | 488.50% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 03
HCC: Blue Creek Ramp And Coal Rally Will Shape Balanced Medium Term Outlook
Narrative Update Overview Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Warrior Met Coal by about $1 to $104.83, reflecting updated views on growth, profitability, and P/E assumptions following a mix of recent target raises and a $3 cut from one firm. This should be read as a fine tuning of expectations rather than a wholesale shift in sentiment.
Narrative Update • May 20
HCC: Mixed Price Revisions And Stable 2026 Guidance Will Shape Future Upside
Narrative Update Overview The analyst price target for Warrior Met Coal has been adjusted from $80 to $90, with analysts citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, as reflected in recent target changes from several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Warrior Met Coal point to a mixed backdrop, with some analysts lifting price targets while others are trimming expectations based on updated assumptions around valuation and execution risk.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 03
HCC: Blue Creek Ramp And Coal Rally Will Shape Balanced Medium Term Outlook
Narrative Update Overview Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Warrior Met Coal by about $1 to $104.83, reflecting updated views on growth, profitability, and P/E assumptions following a mix of recent target raises and a $3 cut from one firm. This should be read as a fine tuning of expectations rather than a wholesale shift in sentiment.Narrative Update • May 20
HCC: Mixed Price Revisions And Stable 2026 Guidance Will Shape Future Upside
Narrative Update Overview The analyst price target for Warrior Met Coal has been adjusted from $80 to $90, with analysts citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, as reflected in recent target changes from several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Warrior Met Coal point to a mixed backdrop, with some analysts lifting price targets while others are trimming expectations based on updated assumptions around valuation and execution risk.Narrative Update • Apr 27
HCC: Blue Creek Ramp And Higher Production Will Support Medium Term Upside
Analysts have nudged their average price target on Warrior Met Coal slightly higher, with recent $3 to $20 target increases from several firms, tied to refreshed views on revenue growth, profitability, and the stock's future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Warrior Met Coal has centered on refreshed price targets and a rating upgrade, with bullish analysts adjusting their views around earnings power, P/E assumptions, and execution on the current business plan.Seeking Alpha • Apr 14
Warrior Met Coal: A Top Asset In The Sector At The Worst Point Of The Cycle
Summary Warrior Met Coal (HCC) has completed a major expansion, nearly doubling capacity with the new Blue Creek mine, enhancing its premium metallurgical coal offering. HCC's unique geological position enables premium pricing and higher margins versus U.S. peers, but current market oversupply is depressing High Vol A coal relativity. I assign a Hold rating to HCC, citing strong assets and competitive advantages but limited near-term upside due to persistent oversupply and weak pricing. Key risks include geographic concentration, unresolved labor contracts, and exposure to infrastructure disruptions; I am monitoring Indian demand for potential upside catalysts. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 13
HCC: Higher 2026 Coal Volumes And P/E Rerating Will Support Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Warrior Met Coal to $120 from $100, citing recent price target increases across the Street and updated assumptions around growth, profitability and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a series of bullish analysts revisiting their models for Warrior Met Coal, with multiple price target adjustments over a relatively short period.Narrative Update • Mar 30
HCC: Blue Creek Ramp And Execution Will Shape Balanced Medium Term Outlook
Narrative Update: Warrior Met Coal Analysts have lifted their consolidated price target on Warrior Met Coal by about $4 to roughly $106. This change reflects updated assumptions around valuation multiples, discount rate, and profitability, based on a series of recent target hikes across major firms.Narrative Update • Mar 16
HCC: Blue Creek Mine Ramp Up Will Likely Limit Further Share Upside
Analysts have raised their average price target for Warrior Met Coal to around $101. This reflects a series of recent upward revisions that indicate slightly stronger expected growth and profitability assumptions in their models.Narrative Update • Mar 02
HCC: New Mine Completion And Higher Expectations Will Likely Constrain Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their average price target on Warrior Met Coal by $28, supported by recent upgrades and higher targets from several firms citing updated expectations for the business and its valuation multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Warrior Met Coal have generally come with higher price targets, but not all of the commentary has been upbeat.Narrative Update • Feb 16
HCC: Future Upside Will Depend On Blue Creek Ramp And Execution
The updated analyst price target for Warrior Met Coal has increased from about $91.33 to roughly $102.17. Analysts attribute this change to revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E.Narrative Update • Feb 02
HCC: Raised Expectations For New Mine Will Likely Limit Future Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Warrior Met Coal from US$72 to US$80, citing updated assumptions for fair value, modest adjustments to the discount rate and future P/E, as well as changes in expected revenue growth and profit margins reflected in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on Warrior Met Coal has focused on how updated assumptions feed into fair value estimates, including the higher US$80 price target and changes to projected P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Jan 19
HCC: Future Performance Will Rely On Blue Creek Ramp Up And Cost Discipline
Analysts have lifted their price target on Warrior Met Coal to about $91 from roughly $81, pointing to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Warrior Met Coal marked the completion of the Blue Creek Mine project in Tuscaloosa County, a longwall mine backed by roughly US$1b of company investment and described as a world class metallurgical coal asset.Narrative Update • Jan 05
HCC: Higher 2025 Volume Outlook Will Support Stronger Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Warrior Met Coal from $75.00 to $100.00, citing updated assumptions related to discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News Warrior Met Coal issued new corporate guidance for full year 2025 production and sales volumes.Narrative Update • Dec 14
HCC: Elevated Metallurgical Coal Price Dependence Will Likely Constrain Future Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their price target on Warrior Met Coal from $50.00 to $72.00, citing stronger projected revenue growth, improved profit margins, and the company's low-cost position in the seaborne metallurgical coal market. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage has highlighted Warrior Met Coal's position as one of the lowest cost producers in the U.S. seaborne metallurgical coal market, supported by efficient underground longwall operations and strong export logistics.Narrative Update • Nov 29
HCC: Future Performance Will Depend On Cost Leadership And Sales Mix Strength
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Warrior Met Coal to approximately $80.83. They cite the company's strong cost position and efficient access to seaborne metallurgical coal markets as key factors supporting the upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 15
HCC: Future Margins And Efficient Operations Will Shape Fair Valuation Outlook
Analysts have increased their price target for Warrior Met Coal to $80, up from $74. They cite improved profit margins, higher expected revenue growth, and the company's strong position as an efficient, low-cost producer in the seaborne metallurgical coal market.Analysis Article • Nov 12
Weak Statutory Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC)
Despite Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HCC ) recent earnings report having lackluster headline numbers, the market...Analysis Article • Nov 09
Revenues Tell The Story For Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) As Its Stock Soars 28%
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. ( NYSE:HCC ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month...Narrative Update • Oct 31
HCC: Strong Seaborne Market Presence Will Support Resilient Low-Cost Competitive Advantage
Analysts have updated their price target for Warrior Met Coal to $74.00 per share, citing the company's strong position in the seaborne metallurgical coal market and its proven ability to operate efficiently at low costs. Analyst Commentary Recent research from street analysts highlights both optimism and caution regarding Warrior Met Coal's outlook.Analysis Article • Oct 27
Investors Could Be Concerned With Warrior Met Coal's (NYSE:HCC) Returns On Capital
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Narrative Update • Oct 17
Blue Creek Launch Will Unlock Low-Cost Metallurgical Coal Supply
Analysts have raised their price target for Warrior Met Coal from $67.33 to $74.00, citing stronger financial metrics and continued operational efficiencies. Analyst Commentary Recent street research has highlighted both strengths and potential risks as Warrior Met Coal attracts fresh analyst attention and price target revisions.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Blue Creek Launch Will Unlock Low-Cost Metallurgical Coal Supply
The average analyst price target for Warrior Met Coal has increased slightly from $65.67 to $67.33. Analysts highlight the company's strong position in the seaborne metallurgical coal market as well as its operational efficiency.Narrative Update • Aug 27
Blue Creek Launch Will Unlock Low-Cost Metallurgical Coal Supply
Analysts have increased their price target for Warrior Met Coal to $65.67, citing stronger-than-expected Q2 results driven by EBITDA outperformance, improved cost management, and higher 2025 production guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets in response to Warrior Met Coal’s better-than-expected Q2 results, particularly driven by adjusted EBITDA outperformance.Narrative Update • Aug 08
Blue Creek Launch Will Unlock Low-Cost Metallurgical Coal Supply
Warrior Met Coal's consensus price target has been raised to $64.00, reflecting a substantial improvement in net profit margin and a lower future P/E ratio, both indicating enhanced profitability and valuation. What's in the News Updated 2025 full-year guidance: coal production expected between 8.3 and 9.1 million short tons, with coal sales forecasted between 8.8 and 9.5 million short tons.Analysis Article • Jul 22
Further Upside For Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 26% Bounce
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. ( NYSE:HCC ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period...Analysis Article • Jul 07
Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) Will Want To Turn Around Its Return Trends
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. One common...Seeking Alpha • Mar 31
Warrior Met Coal: Low-Cost Producer With Upside
Summary Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is well-positioned to weather current low coal prices due to its low-cost production and strong balance sheet, with Blue Creek set to enhance margins and production. Despite current oversupply and weak market conditions, long-term demand for metallurgical coal is expected to rise, driven by emerging markets like India and the green energy transition. The Blue Creek project, on time and on budget, will significantly boost HCC's production and margins, making it a valuable long-term investment below $50/share. While short-term risks and uncertainties persist, HCC's strategic positioning and Blue Creek's potential make it a compelling buy for long-term investors seeking exposure to the coal market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 13
Warrior Met Coal: Will Blue Creek Mine, A Large CAPEX Investment, Be Profitable?
Summary Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek project could double production by 2030, but heavy CAPEX and market volatility pose significant risks. The coal market's dependence on China's steel industry and India's growing demand are critical factors for Warrior's future performance. Despite strong cash flow generation, Warrior's increased share issuance and investment needs for Blue Creek may strain finances if market conditions worsen. Given the high risks and current market conditions, I recommend holding Warrior Met Coal and monitoring developments closely. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| HCC | US Metals and Mining | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 1.3% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| 1Y | 127.4% | 87.2% | 26.2% |
Return vs Industry: HCC exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned 87.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HCC exceeded the US Market which returned 26.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| HCC volatility | |
|---|---|
| HCC Average Weekly Movement | 8.5% |
| Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement | 9.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.0% |
Stable Share Price: HCC has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: HCC's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1,485 | Walt Scheller | warriormetcoal.com |
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| HCC fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$5.59b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$137.51m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.47b |
40.7x
P/E Ratio3.8x
P/S RatioIs HCC overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| HCC income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.47b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$1.06b |
| Gross Profit | US$417.28m |
| Other Expenses | US$279.77m |
| Earnings | US$137.51m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 2.60 |
| Gross Margin | 28.34% |
| Net Profit Margin | 9.34% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 7.0% |
How did HCC perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.3%
Current Dividend Yield12%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/04 22:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/04 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Nathan Martin | Benchmark Company |
| Mark Levin | Benchmark Company |
| Katja Jancic | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |