Trip.com Group Limited

NasdaqGS:TCOM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$39.0b

Trip.com Group Valuation

Is TCOM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TCOM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TCOM ($59.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($84.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCOM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TCOM?

Key metric: As TCOM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TCOM. This is calculated by dividing TCOM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TCOM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.9x
EarningsCN¥14.06b
Market CapCN¥282.16b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TCOM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TCOM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.9x
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings
51.5x17.6%US$61.0b
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises
23.9x18.9%US$62.7b
MAR Marriott International
28x8.4%US$78.4b
CCL Carnival Corporation &
20.2x19.8%US$31.2b
TCOM Trip.com Group
19.9x10.7%US$39.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the peer average (30.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TCOM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
TCOM 19.9xIndustry Avg. 24.4xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TCOM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TCOM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.9x
Fair PE Ratio26.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TCOM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$59.49
US$66.89
+12.4%
13.7%US$84.35US$47.07n/a31
Nov ’25US$65.19
US$65.47
+0.4%
12.8%US$83.88US$47.75n/a30
Oct ’25US$62.51
US$64.82
+3.7%
12.0%US$80.95US$48.54n/a30
Sep ’25US$47.14
US$64.25
+36.3%
12.0%US$80.38US$47.99n/a30
Aug ’25US$41.14
US$65.13
+58.3%
10.2%US$79.00US$49.83n/a30
Jul ’25US$47.55
US$65.76
+38.3%
11.8%US$86.61US$49.78n/a30
Jun ’25US$51.51
US$66.12
+28.4%
11.6%US$86.83US$49.90n/a30
May ’25US$48.74
US$55.48
+13.8%
10.1%US$71.54US$43.72n/a30
Apr ’25US$46.96
US$54.81
+16.7%
9.9%US$71.63US$43.77n/a30
Mar ’25US$44.91
US$54.57
+21.5%
10.5%US$71.96US$43.98n/a31
Feb ’25US$37.40
US$49.80
+33.1%
12.0%US$68.49US$35.74n/a31
Jan ’25US$36.01
US$50.04
+39.0%
12.0%US$68.92US$35.96n/a31
Dec ’24US$34.14
US$49.99
+46.4%
12.0%US$68.90US$35.95n/a31
Nov ’24US$33.53
US$50.28
+50.0%
10.9%US$66.99US$35.93US$65.1930
Oct ’24US$34.97
US$50.56
+44.6%
9.9%US$67.13US$42.53US$62.5130
Sep ’24US$40.38
US$48.09
+19.1%
8.9%US$58.61US$39.68US$47.1431
Aug ’24US$40.36
US$48.58
+20.4%
8.9%US$57.86US$40.30US$41.1431
Jul ’24US$35.00
US$47.43
+35.5%
9.9%US$57.72US$38.45US$47.5530
Jun ’24US$32.23
US$45.47
+41.1%
10.0%US$56.51US$33.58US$51.5131
May ’24US$35.29
US$46.26
+31.1%
10.0%US$57.59US$34.22US$48.7431
Apr ’24US$37.67
US$46.64
+23.8%
10.1%US$58.65US$34.48US$46.9631
Mar ’24US$37.73
US$41.38
+9.7%
11.2%US$52.56US$30.79US$44.9131
Feb ’24US$37.64
US$41.80
+11.1%
10.7%US$52.02US$31.66US$37.4030
Jan ’24US$34.40
US$39.50
+14.8%
11.5%US$52.06US$30.65US$36.0130
Dec ’23US$31.87
US$31.57
-0.9%
9.8%US$39.00US$26.05US$34.1430
Nov ’23US$24.54
US$30.61
+24.7%
11.1%US$35.83US$23.73US$33.5331

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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