Kogan.com Ltd

ASX:KGN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$628.4m

Kogan.com Valuation

Is KGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KGN (A$6.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$20.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KGN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KGN?

Key metric: As KGN is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for KGN. This is calculated by dividing KGN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is KGN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.4x
SalesAU$459.70m
Market CapAU$628.38m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does KGN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for KGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
MYR Myer Holdings
0.4x4.9%AU$1.1b
TRS Reject Shop
0.1x4.2%AU$106.7m
ATG Articore Group
0.2x2.2%AU$76.5m
HVN Harvey Norman Holdings
2.1x11.5%AU$5.9b
KGN Kogan.com
1.4x5.9%AU$628.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does KGN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

45 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KGN 1.4xIndustry Avg. 0.9xNo. of Companies45PS00.81.62.43.24+
45 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KGN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KGN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KGN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.30
AU$6.29
-0.1%
31.6%AU$10.70AU$4.50n/a8
Dec ’25AU$4.99
AU$6.29
+26.1%
31.6%AU$10.70AU$4.50n/a8
Nov ’25AU$4.73
AU$6.26
+32.4%
32.2%AU$10.70AU$4.20n/a8
Oct ’25AU$5.15
AU$6.34
+23.1%
30.2%AU$10.70AU$4.20n/a9
Sep ’25AU$4.71
AU$6.48
+37.6%
30.6%AU$10.70AU$4.20n/a8
Aug ’25AU$4.52
AU$6.35
+40.5%
32.5%AU$10.70AU$4.15n/a8
Jul ’25AU$4.29
AU$6.69
+56.0%
26.8%AU$10.70AU$4.80n/a8
Jun ’25AU$4.39
AU$6.69
+52.5%
26.8%AU$10.70AU$4.80n/a8
May ’25AU$4.98
AU$6.69
+34.4%
26.8%AU$10.70AU$4.80n/a8
Apr ’25AU$7.89
AU$7.52
-4.7%
20.7%AU$10.70AU$5.50n/a8
Mar ’25AU$7.93
AU$7.60
-4.2%
21.6%AU$10.70AU$5.50n/a7
Feb ’25AU$5.83
AU$5.75
-1.4%
35.2%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Jan ’25AU$5.23
AU$5.57
+6.6%
37.4%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Dec ’24AU$5.12
AU$5.57
+8.9%
37.4%AU$10.70AU$4.09AU$4.998
Nov ’24AU$4.58
AU$5.54
+20.9%
38.1%AU$10.70AU$4.00AU$4.738
Oct ’24AU$5.26
AU$5.80
+10.3%
36.8%AU$10.70AU$4.01AU$5.157
Sep ’24AU$5.50
AU$5.80
+5.5%
36.8%AU$10.70AU$4.01AU$4.717
Aug ’24AU$6.25
AU$5.67
-9.2%
38.7%AU$10.70AU$3.92AU$4.527
Jul ’24AU$4.85
AU$4.47
-7.9%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.80AU$4.298
Jun ’24AU$4.33
AU$4.47
+3.2%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.80AU$4.398
May ’24AU$4.43
AU$4.64
+4.7%
54.4%AU$10.70AU$2.80AU$4.987
Apr ’24AU$3.71
AU$4.58
+23.5%
51.1%AU$10.70AU$3.07AU$7.898
Mar ’24AU$3.96
AU$4.58
+15.7%
51.1%AU$10.70AU$3.07AU$7.938
Feb ’24AU$4.54
AU$4.45
-1.9%
50.8%AU$10.70AU$2.96AU$5.839
Jan ’24AU$3.50
AU$4.28
+22.2%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$5.239
Dec ’23AU$3.46
AU$4.28
+23.6%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$5.129

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 17:52
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Kogan.com Ltd is covered by 11 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Aryan NoroziBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Chamithri RatnapalaBell Potter