Kogan.com Valuation

Is KGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KGN (A$4.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$20.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KGN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KGN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

KGN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18.2x
PEG Ratio188.8x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does KGN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for KGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
MYR Myer Holdings
0.3x4.5%AU$761.8m
ATG Articore Group
0.2x2.2%AU$90.4m
TRS Reject Shop
0.1x4.3%AU$107.0m
HVN Harvey Norman Holdings
2x11.6%AU$5.6b
KGN Kogan.com
1x6.4%AU$473.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KGN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (0.8x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KGN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KGN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KGN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.73
AU$6.26
+32.4%
32.2%AU$10.70AU$4.20n/a8
Oct ’25AU$5.15
AU$6.34
+23.1%
30.2%AU$10.70AU$4.20n/a9
Sep ’25AU$4.71
AU$6.48
+37.6%
30.6%AU$10.70AU$4.20n/a8
Aug ’25AU$4.52
AU$6.35
+40.5%
32.5%AU$10.70AU$4.15n/a8
Jul ’25AU$4.29
AU$6.69
+56.0%
26.8%AU$10.70AU$4.80n/a8
Jun ’25AU$4.39
AU$6.69
+52.5%
26.8%AU$10.70AU$4.80n/a8
May ’25AU$4.98
AU$6.69
+34.4%
26.8%AU$10.70AU$4.80n/a8
Apr ’25AU$7.89
AU$7.52
-4.7%
20.7%AU$10.70AU$5.50n/a8
Mar ’25AU$7.93
AU$7.60
-4.2%
21.6%AU$10.70AU$5.50n/a7
Feb ’25AU$5.83
AU$5.75
-1.4%
35.2%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Jan ’25AU$5.23
AU$5.57
+6.6%
37.4%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Dec ’24AU$5.12
AU$5.57
+8.9%
37.4%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Nov ’24AU$4.58
AU$5.54
+20.9%
38.1%AU$10.70AU$4.00AU$4.738
Oct ’24AU$5.26
AU$5.80
+10.3%
36.8%AU$10.70AU$4.01AU$5.157
Sep ’24AU$5.50
AU$5.80
+5.5%
36.8%AU$10.70AU$4.01AU$4.717
Aug ’24AU$6.25
AU$5.67
-9.2%
38.7%AU$10.70AU$3.92AU$4.527
Jul ’24AU$4.85
AU$4.47
-7.9%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.80AU$4.298
Jun ’24AU$4.33
AU$4.47
+3.2%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.80AU$4.398
May ’24AU$4.43
AU$4.64
+4.7%
54.4%AU$10.70AU$2.80AU$4.987
Apr ’24AU$3.71
AU$4.58
+23.5%
51.1%AU$10.70AU$3.07AU$7.898
Mar ’24AU$3.96
AU$4.58
+15.7%
51.1%AU$10.70AU$3.07AU$7.938
Feb ’24AU$4.54
AU$4.45
-1.9%
50.8%AU$10.70AU$2.96AU$5.839
Jan ’24AU$3.50
AU$4.28
+22.2%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$5.239
Dec ’23AU$3.46
AU$4.28
+23.6%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$5.129
Nov ’23AU$3.38
AU$4.28
+26.6%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$4.589

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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