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Weekly Picks
Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings — the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes — including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B — now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling — a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$268.43
FV
27.9% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
6
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0
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
21 days ago
author updated this narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
43.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
6
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Key Assumptions: Successful Guyana and South America Deposits: ExxonMobil’s Stabroek Block in Guyana is assumed to achieve full operational success, contributing significantly to production growth. The block is estimated to hold over 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil, with production scaling rapidly.
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US$189.00
FV
41.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
14.85%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
1
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
3
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Frontdoor
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Discounting Will Hurt Revenue But Q1 Wins Will Raise Hope
Key Takeaways Discounting strategies in direct-to-consumer channel may reduce short-term revenue, potentially impacting top-line growth negatively. Rising supplier costs and reliance on technology could pressure Frontdoor's margins and affect earnings if growth doesn't meet expectations.
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US$44.00
FV
33.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
9.07%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
DXC Technology
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 8 Analysts
Digital Disruption Will Erode Overpriced IT Market Share
Key Takeaways The shift toward digital-first competitors and enduring legacy perceptions threaten DXC's market share, margins, and ability to secure large new contracts. Escalating labor costs, customer consolidation, and service commoditization create sustained margin pressures and inhibit long-term profitability improvement.
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US$15.00
FV
5.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-4.47%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
CPA
Copa Holdings
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
737 MAX Deliveries Will Improve Capacity And Efficiency
Key Takeaways Operational excellence and strong brand reputation help maintain passenger loyalty, supporting future revenue stability. New aircraft deliveries and cost-efficient operations increase capacity and net margins, while strategic share buybacks enhance shareholder value.
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US$118.00
FV
7.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
6.72%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
Kadant
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
Shrinking Pulp Demand And Rising Tariffs Will Hinder Performance
Key Takeaways Structural decline in pulp and paper demand and rising low-cost competition threaten Kadant's core revenues and long-term earnings stability. Ongoing tariffs, regulation, and compliance costs are compressing margins and raising operating expenses, limiting future profit growth.
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US$275.00
FV
25.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
1.18%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
FormFactor
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 8 Analysts
Rising Geopolitical Tensions And Compliance Burdens Will Undermine Semiconductor Performance
Key Takeaways Geopolitical tensions, deglobalization, and climate regulations are raising compliance, logistics, and operating costs, eroding profitability and increasing long-term risk. Intense competition, customer concentration, and rapid industry shifts threaten market share, pricing power, and future revenue stability.
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US$30.00
FV
16.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.93%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
Terex
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
Tariff Pressures And Production Cuts Will Set Stage For Environmental Solutions
Key Takeaways Tariffs on Chinese raw materials and production cuts risk pressure on profits unless effectively mitigated with supply chain adjustments. Weak European infrastructure investment and economic uncertainties challenge sales projections in key segments, possibly affecting revenue growth expectations.
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US$34.67
FV
48.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
4.53%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
Hilton Grand Vacations
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
Remote Work Surge And Airbnb Rivalry Will Pressure Timeshares
Key Takeaways Shifting consumer preferences and competition from flexible lodging alternatives challenge Hilton Grand Vacations' traditional timeshare model and growth prospects. Increased regulatory pressures and economic headwinds are expected to raise operating costs and negatively impact profitability over time.
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US$34.00
FV
52.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
11.44%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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6 days ago
author updated this narrative
American Eagle Outfitters
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
Declining Physical Stores Will Strain Margins Though Digital May Help
Key Takeaways Ongoing shifts to digital channels and demographic changes threaten relevance, compressing margins and curbing long-term revenue and earnings growth. Heightened competition, sustainability pressures, and alternative retail models undermine profitability and risk prolonged stagnation in market share and cash flow.
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US$9.00
FV
33.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-0.81%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
Arcadis
AN
AnalystHighTarget
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
Urbanization, Climate Adaptation And Digitalization Will Unlock Resilient Markets
Key Takeaways Arcadis' digital transformation and strategic focus on climate adaptation are expected to drive higher revenue growth, expanding margins, and premium project wins beyond market forecasts. Scaling high-value projects and energy sector expertise positions Arcadis for sustained operating leverage, enhanced cash flow, and increased opportunity for acquisitions and capital returns.
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€75.00
FV
43.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-3.75%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
6 days ago
author updated this narrative
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