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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
24
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
62
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
65
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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OraSure Technologies
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 1 Analyst
Diagnostics Will Face Funding Cuts Yet Show Signs Of Resilience
Key Takeaways Reliance on government funding and major clients creates revenue volatility, while rising compliance costs and regulatory demands threaten profitability and slow innovation. Intensifying competition and shifts toward digital health and telemedicine risk eroding market relevance, compressing margins, and hampering long-term growth prospects.
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US$5.00
FV
39.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-3.25%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Holley
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
Electric Vehicle Expansion Will Undermine Combustion Engines But Offer Hope
Key Takeaways The shift toward electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences threaten long-term demand and market size for Holley's traditional performance products. Regulatory pressures and economic uncertainty could undermine profitability and render key products less viable, increasing revenue and earnings volatility.
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US$2.25
FV
11.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
4.84%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
TTI
TETRA Technologies
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Deepwater And Desalination Risks Will Stall Plans Yet Hope Emerges
Key Takeaways Growth in water management and chemical sales depends on uncertain adoption timing, partner performance, and regulatory shifts, which could delay or limit margin expansion. Revenue streams from lithium extraction and offshore fluids are promising but exposed to technology, market trends, and project timing risks, impacting earnings consistency.
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US$4.00
FV
3.5% undervalued
intrinsic discount
1.27%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Designer Brands
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 2 Analysts
Weak Consumer Demand And Margin Strain Will Spur Emerging Value
Key Takeaways Expansion of owned brands and private labels boosts margins, but weak consumer demand and declining store traffic undermine sustainable revenue growth. Digital investments help retention, yet heavy reliance on promotions, limited pricing power, and a burdensome retail footprint pressure margins and earnings.
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US$3.00
FV
14.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
0.58%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Dave
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 8 Analysts
Regulatory Scrutiny And Competition Will Derail Digital Banking Prospects
Key Takeaways Heightened regulatory scrutiny and increased competition threaten to constrain Dave's growth, compress margins, and erode its pricing power and differentiation. Dependence on paid marketing, economic sensitivity of core users, and rising acquisition costs could lead to lower profitability and difficulties sustaining membership growth.
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US$177.00
FV
31.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
21.89%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
Legacy Driveline Demand Will Decline Despite Reshoring Benefits
Key Takeaways The shift to electric vehicles threatens key revenue streams and increases competitive pressure, challenging the company’s ability to adapt and maintain profitability. Dependence on major automakers and high debt levels raise financial risk, especially amid costly investment needs and uncertain EV market adoption.
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US$4.00
FV
7.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-1.11%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Regulatory Delays And Pricing Headwinds Will Impede Performance But Stabilize
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on new drug approvals and reimbursement stability exposes future revenues and margins to regulatory, market, and policy uncertainties. Growth opportunities from pipeline diversification are limited by small target markets and potential slow uptake, posing risk to sustained earnings expansion.
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US$0.70
FV
10.2% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-19.46%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Limbach Holdings
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Modular Adoption And Rising Costs Will Weaken Construction Margins
Key Takeaways Rapid shifts toward modular construction and digitalization threaten Limbach's core business and could erode competitiveness and margins against more technologically advanced peers. Heavy reliance on healthcare and institutional clients, coupled with rising costs and macroeconomic pressures, increases vulnerability to sector downturns and earnings volatility.
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US$120.00
FV
11.2% overvalued
intrinsic discount
18.43%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Cipher Mining
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
Bitcoin Volatility And Regulatory Risks Will Impede Long-Run Performance
Key Takeaways Elevated regulatory scrutiny, ESG concerns, and competition for renewable energy create long-term risks for profitability, financing, and sustainable growth. High operational flexibility and energy efficiency are advantages, but volatile Bitcoin prices and capital intensity threaten earnings stability and future returns.
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US$6.00
FV
17.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
39.25%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
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