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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
24
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
62
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
67
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Janus International Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
Tariffs, Credit Tightening And Shifting Demand Will Curb Progress
Key Takeaways Structural decline in demand and growing concentration risk threaten long-term revenue stability and expose the company to greater earnings volatility. Shifts toward alternative storage, rising compliance costs, and tariff headwinds exert persistent pressure on margins and undermine product competitiveness.
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US$7.50
FV
14.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.75%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Arhaus
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 12 Analysts
Tariff Pressures And Costs Will Curb Performance Yet Value Emerges
Key Takeaways Sustained demand from affluent consumers and investments in omni-channel growth face pressures from rising costs, supply chain complexity, and volatile discretionary spending. Margin expansion and premium positioning are challenged by showroom cost risk, income inequality, increasing competition, and near-term dilution from operational investments.
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US$8.00
FV
8.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.46%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Excelerate Energy
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
Escalating Regulatory Burdens And Market Shifts Will Hurt LNG Outlook
Key Takeaways Long-term demand for LNG assets faces structural decline from global renewables transition, exposing revenue streams and asset utilization to sustained risk. Heavy capital intensity, regulatory pressures, and market volatility threaten stable earnings, margin stability, and increase refinancing and political risks.
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US$23.00
FV
11.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
14.07%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
CABO
Cable One
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Rising Wireless Threats Will Pressure Performance But Enable Recovery
Key Takeaways Intensifying competition from wireless and satellite providers, along with urban migration, threatens Cable One's subscriber growth, revenue stability, and addressable market size. Reliance on debt and exposure to policy shifts heighten refinancing and margin risks, limiting flexibility for future investments amid rising industry competition.
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US$137.00
FV
0.2% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-4.20%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Aspen Aerogels
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
Policy Reversals And EV Shifts Will Pressure Future Margins
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on decarbonization mandates and concentrated contracts leaves future revenue and earnings vulnerable to policy shifts, customer volumes, and competitor pricing. Rising medium-term demand is challenged by near-term EV production headwinds, battery content changes, and potential margin pressure from cost competition and operational risks.
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US$7.00
FV
8.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.32%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Kosmos Energy
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
West Africa Exposures Will Strain Operations Yet Spark Modest Recovery
Key Takeaways Heavy dependence on select assets and partnerships increases vulnerability to operational, political, and contract risks, affecting revenue stability and credit strength. ESG regulations, renewables adoption, and global competition threaten margins, price realization, and long-term growth prospects despite operational efficiencies and strategic asset focus.
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US$2.20
FV
11.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-4.35%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Atlas Energy Solutions
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
Permian Risks Will Persist But Autonomous Logistics Will Mitigate Impact
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on the Permian Basin and a concentrated customer base increase both geographic and counterparty risks for long-term revenue reliability. Industry shifts to renewables, changes in drilling technology, and high capital intensity threaten growth, margins, and market relevance over time.
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US$12.00
FV
4.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.72%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Seadrill
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
Oversupply And Regulation Will Hamper Offshore Operations Yet Incite Hope
Key Takeaways Accelerated energy transition and investor divestment from fossil fuels challenge Seadrill’s long-term revenue and limit financing options and balance sheet flexibility. Rising costs from decarbonization mandates and increased competition threaten margin improvement, while customer concentration creates revenue volatility risk.
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US$32.00
FV
13.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
3.92%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
Laureate Education
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Shrinking Latin American Demographics And EdTech Disruption Will Limit Outlook
Key Takeaways Demographic shifts and changing student preferences threaten long-term enrollment growth and revenue stability. Heavy reliance on select markets and ongoing investment needs expose the company to economic volatility and margin pressure.
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US$19.50
FV
17.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.01%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
19 days ago
author updated this narrative
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