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Visa

Visa - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 9.5/17 +2✅✅ Projected Operating Margin: 65.63% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 9.43% +2 ✅✅ Last 5-Year ROIC: 39.70% +1 ✅ Estimated Cost of Capital: 6.26% (lower than ROIC) -1 ❌ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: +0.15% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 12.38% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: 12.50% +1.5 ✅ Estimated Debt Rating: Aa3 +2 ✅✅ Morningstar Moat: Wide +0 ⚠️ Morningstar Uncertainty: Medium Business Valuation To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I'll use multiple methods: Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) - Intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital ; EPS Growth - the fair value is estimated by projected the Earnings Per Share CAGR for the next 5 Years and then, given its current and historic values of PE, come up with a PE for the 5th Year. This will give us its price 5 Years from now using the formula: Price = EPS x PE that we then discount using the estimated cost of capital; Historical P/E - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/E values; Historical EV/EBITDA - we assume mean reversion to the historical EV/EBITDA values.Read more

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US$387.07
11.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.05% p.a.
Profit Margin
46%
Future PE
28x
Price in 2036
US$710.22
US$95.21
13.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
1.75% p.a.
Profit Margin
7.25%
Future PE
14.5x
Price in 2028
US$120.44
US$252.81
95.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
3.7% p.a.
Profit Margin
25.17%
Future PE
22.5x
Price in 2030
US$368.69