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MA
Community Contributor

PDD Holdings will see accelerating growth with a 74% price target increase

Executive Summary Based on exceptional recent execution and accelerating growth metrics, we revise our 12-month price target for PDD Holdings to $165.00, representing approximately 74% upside from the current price of $94.68. Recent Performance Highlights Q3 2024 demonstrated remarkable acceleration across key metrics: Transaction services revenue surged 72% year-over-year, significantly outpacing expectations Operating profit increased 46% to RMB 24.3 billion with expanding margins Net income growth accelerated to 61% year-over-year Cash position strengthened to $44 billion, providing substantial strategic flexibility Key Growth Catalysts International Expansion: Temu's semi-entrusted model showing stronger-than-anticipated margin improvement Geographic footprint expanded to 70+ countries with robust user acquisition metrics Customer acquisition costs decreased 22% quarter-over-quarter Platform Economics: Take rate expanded to 3.8%, demonstrating pricing power Monthly active users exceeded 900 million in Q4 2024 Merchant retention rate stable at 89% despite take rate increases Risk Assessment Near-term Challenges: EU's VLOP designation may require additional compliance investments Potential changes to U.S. de minimis import rules Intensifying competition in cross-border e-commerce Revised Valuation Analysis Given the acceleration in key metrics, we apply a 10x FY2024E EV/EBITDA multiple (up from 8x), still below high-growth internet peers at 12-15x.
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US$165.00
FV
32.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
-6.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
3users have liked this narrative
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18users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative
US$532.45
FV
4.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.34%
Revenue growth p.a.
2users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
61users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative
NOK 0.000001
FV
12.5m% overvalued intrinsic discount
-72.73%
Revenue growth p.a.
7users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
25users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative
€199.98
FV
75.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
1.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
3users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative
US$210.00
FV
7.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
-100.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
3users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative
US$44.06
FV
60.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
20.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
9users have liked this narrative
20users have commented on this narrative
24users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative
US$100.00
FV
43.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
83.73%
Revenue growth p.a.
9users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
35users have followed this narrative
6 months ago author updated this narrative