Our community narratives are driven by numbers and valuation.
Budimex is the leading Polish company in the construction sector, accounting for about 57% of the overall WIG-construction index. Thanks to the diversification of its operations, the company has been able to occupy such a large share of the market.Read more
After discussing the opportunities and challenges for Neste with my copilot, I have found out the following points: The industry outlook Oil products (49 % of Neste's revenue) Global oil demand is expected to plateau or decline slightly (-) Increased adaption of electric vehicles Improvements in energy efficiency Oil supply is expected to be good or superfluous (-) Oil prices will probably experience volatility (n) Road transport demand for oil will probably decline (-) Aviation and petrochemicals demand for oil will probably increase because the lack of alternatives (+) Renewable products (30 % of Neste's revenue) Renewable fuels The global production of renewable fuels, like biofuels and sustainable aviation fuels, is expected to expand significantly. (+) Governments worldwide are likely to implement regulations and incentives to promote the use of renewable fuels.Read more
Update as of 10 April: Both commercially and, according to several industry rankings and customer surveys, in terms of its product, Cathay Pacific is up there with the top carriers in international air travel. Only Singapore Airlines, the region's other leading carrier, matches Cathay's remarkable margins and earnings strength.Read more

Update as of 9 April: Just like any other basic resources stock, SSAB got hammered ever since the advent of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and their ongoing escalation down to recession fears; thus, as always with markets tumbling on a broad basis, it's no use to catch a falling knife. Once the current, all-out sell-off is over, however, I stick to SSAB's relatively positive prospects due to the catalysts as given below, since nothing has changed with the EU's investment agenda.Read more

Hochschild Mining – Overview Location : South America Production (2025) : Gold: 250,000 oz Silver: 8 million oz (excluding Pallancata C&M) AISC (Break-even) : Gold: ~$1,850/oz Silver: ~$24/oz Cash Flow Margin at $4,000 gold / $100 silver : Strong Debt : $350M $100M due in 2024 $89M cash on hand $200M additional credit available New & Future Projects Mara Rosa (Brazil) : 80,000 oz/year (low cost) Started in 2024 Royropata (Peru) : 100,000 oz AUEQ (3M oz silver/year) Starts in 2028 Monte Do Carmo (Brazil) : 90,000 oz gold Permitting stage – expected 2028 Volcan (Chile) : 9 million oz gold (.7 gpt) Potential 330K oz/year AISC: ~$1,000 Capex: $900M Production could begin 2028–2030 Not included in cash flow estimate (optional upside or sale) Ownership 50% owned by one family Dividends are a priority Unlikely to sell – growth focus Valuation at $4,000 Gold / $100 Silver Assume production from 2028 with 400K oz gold & 10M oz silver: Gold FCF : 400,000 oz × ($4,000 – $1,850) = $860M Silver FCF : 10,000,000 oz × ($100 – $24) = $760M Total Annual FCF ≈ $1.62B Valuation at 10x FCF = $16.2B Conclusion If Hochschild Mining executes on new projects and gold reaches $4,000/oz, silver hits $100/oz, the company could be worth over $16 billion. However, high debt, permitting risks, and political red flags (Argentina, Peru, Chile) may keep valuation multiples conservative.Read more

Montage Gold – Overview (Côte d’Ivoire) Project : Kone + Gbongogo Land Package : 500,000 acres Resource : 5 million oz (4M oz reserves) Production Plan : Starts at 300,000 oz/year Capex : $900M (fully funded via $700M streaming deal + $125M debt) AISC : ~$1,000/oz First Pour : Q2 2027 Stream Deal : 23% of production at low fixed prices – hurts profitability 2023 Drill Highlights (Gbongogo) 113.25m @ 2.30 g/t 48.00m @ 1.72 g/t 45.75m @ 1.90 g/t 20.50m @ 10.95 g/t 17.00m @ 8.56 g/t Valuation at $4,000 Gold Let’s estimate using 300,000 oz/year: Streamed Production (23%) : 69,000 oz (minimal profit) Unstreamed Production (77%) : 231,000 oz FCF per oz : $4,000 - $1,000 = $3,000 Total FCF : 231,000 × $3,000 = $693M/year Valuation (10x FCF) : $6.93 billion Stock Price Potential If FCF is $693M and we apply a 10x multiple , the valuation = $6.93B If they have ~200M shares (estimate): Stock Price = $6.93B ÷ 200M = $34.65 per share Conclusion At $4,000 gold , Montage Gold could be worth $30–35/share , even with the streaming deal. Strong team, solid project, and multi-mine potential.Read more

West Vault Mining Summary (2025) Projects : Hasbrouck and Three Hills (Nevada) Ownership : Acquired from Allied Nevada in 2014 PFS (2023) : Production: 70,000 oz/year for 8 years Capex: $66M After-tax IRR: 80% at $2200 gold Development Plan : Phase 1: Three Hills (shovel-ready, 12-month build) Phase 2: Hasbrouck (18-month build) Combined Reserves: ~725,000 oz (175K TH, 550K Hasbrouck) Strong exploration potential with high-grade intercepts Status : Development on hold, waiting for higher gold prices Burning ~$1M/year (conservative spend) Cash: ~$2.5M Announced share buyback: up to 3% Additional Assets : 60% interest in 11 Nevada properties (300K acres, from Newmont/Rubicon) 25K acres in Quebec (between two 4Moz deposits) Market Cap : ~$43M (fully diluted) — very low for a near-term 70K oz producer Risk/Reward : Upside: 10x potential at $4000 gold if mine built and extended Risk: May sell project instead of building Insiders/Ownership : Sun Valley Gold: 46% Ruffer: 17% Eric Sprott: 5% Konwave AG: 3% Management/Insiders: 1.5% Total Insider Ownership: ~70% CEO Quote (2/18/2025) : “We see building Hasbrouck as a viable way to unlock value, but we’re cautious of being a single-project company. Our market cap must be significantly above initial capex before we build — to allow room if things go wrong.” Key Assumptions Annual Production : 70,000 oz Mine Life : 8 years (likely to extend with exploration) Gold Price : $4,000/oz AISC (All-in Sustaining Cost) : Assume $1,200/oz (to be conservative) Free Cash Flow (FCF) per ounce = $4,000 - $1,200 = $2,800 Annual FCF = 70,000 oz × $2,800 = $196,000,000 Valuation Multiple : 10x–15x FCF (common for miners with solid assets) Market Cap Range : Conservative (10x) : $1.96B Optimistic (15x) : $2.94B Shares Outstanding (FD) : ~70 million (estimate) At $4,000 gold , West Vault Mining could be worth: $28.00/share (10x FCF) $42.00/share (15x FCF) Current stock price is under $1 , so this is a potential 30-40x return if the mine is built and production is realized.Read more

Catalysts 1. SSF Home Group Berhad (Bursa Malaysia: 0287) listed on the Bursa Malaysia 12 October 2023 2.Read more
Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Highlights Consolidated revenue of $100 million, an increase of 16.9% compared to the prior year quarter Gross profit of $15 million, an increase of 1.8% compared to the prior year quarter Net loss of $13.2 million compared to net loss of $18.8 million for the prior year quarter Basic and diluted loss per share of $(0.14) and $(0.14), respectively, compared to $(0.21) and $(0.21) for the prior year quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $(7.8) million compared to $(6.3) million for the prior year quarter Cash, cash equivalents, and investments of $50 million as of December 31, 2024 (“TOI” or the “Company”), one of the largest value-based community oncology groups in the United States, today reported financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. Recent Operational Highlights Cash flow from operations in Q4 2024 was approximately $4.2 million, due to disciplined working capital management that saw improvements across receivables, inventory, and payables.Read more
