50 Baggers at Best!

RO
RockeTeller
RockeTeller
Not Invested
Community Contributor
Published
09 Apr 25
Updated
09 Apr 25
RockeTeller's Fair Value
CA$59.00
97.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
09 Apr
CA$1.30
Loading
1Y
46.1%
7D
-7.8%

Author's Valuation

CA$59.0

97.8% undervalued intrinsic discount

RockeTeller's Fair Value

West Vault Mining Summary (2025)

  • Projects: Hasbrouck and Three Hills (Nevada)
  • Ownership: Acquired from Allied Nevada in 2014
  • PFS (2023):
    • Production: 70,000 oz/year for 8 years
    • Capex: $66M
    • After-tax IRR: 80% at $2200 gold
  • Development Plan:
    • Phase 1: Three Hills (shovel-ready, 12-month build)
    • Phase 2: Hasbrouck (18-month build)
    • Combined Reserves: ~725,000 oz (175K TH, 550K Hasbrouck)
    • Strong exploration potential with high-grade intercepts
  • Status:
    • Development on hold, waiting for higher gold prices
    • Burning ~$1M/year (conservative spend)
    • Cash: ~$2.5M
    • Announced share buyback: up to 3%
  • Additional Assets:
    • 60% interest in 11 Nevada properties (300K acres, from Newmont/Rubicon)
    • 25K acres in Quebec (between two 4Moz deposits)
  • Market Cap: ~$43M (fully diluted) — very low for a near-term 70K oz producer
  • Risk/Reward:
    • Upside: 10x potential at $4000 gold if mine built and extended
    • Risk: May sell project instead of building

Insiders/Ownership:

  • Sun Valley Gold: 46%
  • Ruffer: 17%
  • Eric Sprott: 5%
  • Konwave AG: 3%
  • Management/Insiders: 1.5%
  • Total Insider Ownership: ~70%

CEO Quote (2/18/2025):

“We see building Hasbrouck as a viable way to unlock value, but we’re cautious of being a single-project company. Our market cap must be significantly above initial capex before we build — to allow room if things go wrong.”

Key Assumptions

  • Annual Production: 70,000 oz
  • Mine Life: 8 years (likely to extend with exploration)
  • Gold Price: $4,000/oz
  • AISC (All-in Sustaining Cost): Assume $1,200/oz (to be conservative)
  • Free Cash Flow (FCF) per ounce = $4,000 - $1,200 = $2,800
  • Annual FCF = 70,000 oz × $2,800 = $196,000,000
  • Valuation Multiple: 10x–15x FCF (common for miners with solid assets)
  • Market Cap Range:
    • Conservative (10x): $1.96B
    • Optimistic (15x): $2.94B
  • Shares Outstanding (FD): ~70 million (estimate)
  • At $4,000 gold, West Vault Mining could be worth:
    • $28.00/share (10x FCF)
    • $42.00/share (15x FCF)
  • Current stock price is under $1, so this is a potential 30-40x return if the mine is built and production is realized.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller holds no position in TSXV:WVM. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Read more narratives