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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
24
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
62
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
65
users have followed this narrative
New
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Turtle Beach
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
Declining Gaming Accessories Demand And Pricing Pressures Will Continue
Key Takeaways Margin and revenue pressures are rising due to declining demand, price competition, and commoditization in the gaming accessories market. Limited diversification and intensifying competitive threats expose Turtle Beach to ongoing volatility, eroding relevance and long-term earnings potential.
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US$12.00
FV
16.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.46%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Nabtesco
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
North American Reshoring And Chinese Price Pressure Will Squeeze Margins
Key Takeaways Rising localization trends and low-cost competition may weaken export demand and squeeze margins, particularly in Nabtesco's China market strategy. Heavy dependence on a cyclical customer base, evolving technology needs, and regulatory pressures threaten long-term earnings stability and operational efficiency.
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JP¥2.25k
FV
33.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
1.79%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Astra Microwave Products
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
Rising ESG Scrutiny And Obsolescence Will Threaten Outlook
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on government contracts and tender systems, coupled with global defense budget constraints, exposes revenues and earnings to volatility and growth risks. Rapid technological change, ESG pressures, and global industry consolidation threaten Astra's market relevance, access to capital, export growth, and long-term profitability.
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₹768.00
FV
23.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
22.35%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
1&1
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
Rising EU Rules And Capex Will Weaken Telecom Resilience
Key Takeaways Increased regulatory pressure and high compliance costs threaten profit margins and limit future expansion plans. Competitive and technology shifts favor larger players, putting downward pressure on revenue and weakening 1&1's market position.
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€10.40
FV
77.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-1.22%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Landis+Gyr Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
Smart Grid Challenges Will Erode Profit Margins Further
Key Takeaways Rapid technology shifts and rising competition could make the current product line obsolete, leading to less productive R&D spending and shrinking margins. Dependence on large contracts, slow software transition, and regulatory risks constrain recurring earnings growth while increasing exposure to compliance costs and reputational harm.
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CHF 51.06
FV
31.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.21%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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11 days ago
author updated this narrative
GEN Restaurant Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
Rising Costs And Saturation Will Curb Expansion Yet Spark Hope
Key Takeaways Expansion is challenged by rising costs, evolving consumer preferences, and potential market saturation, threatening profitability and long-term growth. Diversification and operational efficiency efforts face risks from regulatory pressures, technological disruption, and volatile input costs, possibly limiting gains.
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US$6.00
FV
32.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
16.14%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Boku
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
Regulatory Burdens In Europe And India Will Undermine Payment Models
Key Takeaways Greater adoption of real-time payment systems and global regulatory pressures threaten Boku's traditional aggregator model, impacting transaction volumes and data-driven revenue streams. Dependence on major merchants and increasing competition from large payment ecosystems introduce volatility and limited scalability, raising risks to earnings stability and future growth.
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UK£1.68
FV
35.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
21.58%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Mahanagar Gas
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 29 Analysts
Rapid Electrification Will Erode Conventional Gas Dominance
Key Takeaways Structural declines in transportation revenues and margin pressures loom due to electrification, regulatory shifts, and weakening natural gas demand. Asset expansion risks outpacing demand, reducing capital returns amid price competition, margin compression, and rising input cost volatility.
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₹1.17k
FV
14.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
1.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
Patent Risks And Regulation Will Strain Margins Yet Support Resilience
Key Takeaways Over-reliance on a single product leaves Clinuvel vulnerable to competition, regulatory risk, and limited future earnings diversification. Regulatory scrutiny, reimbursement restrictions, and rising R&D costs threaten margins and may hinder sustainable earnings growth despite robust cash reserves and pipeline progress.
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AU$15.00
FV
18.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
10.52%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
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